Displaying items by tag: Global Macro

I've issued several warnings late last year warning of the real estate bubble peaking and popping. I feel I'm especially qualified to do such since I quite accurately called the bubble burst of 2007 - namely housing (look here and here), homebuilders (look here), commercial real estate (look here and here and here and here and there) and banks (Bear Stearns and  Lehman, among many others). Well, exactly ten years later, guest what?

The markets have gotten euphoric since the Trump election, apparently because someone believed what he was selling. Take a look at the broad market jump (powered greatly by the bank jump), and even more unbelievably the bank index jump.

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BREXIT is now official (almost), and it will be very expensive for Britain. Now, the question that so many fail to ask, "How expensive will it be for the EU?" Here are some more questions:

The Fed has raised rates, officially making real what was mere signaling of the end of its expansionary era... Or is it? You see, from a practical perspective, QE is still in full effect. The US housing market, particularly in large coastal cities is on fire. Commercial and residential rents are rising considerably faster than earnings and incomes. Why is that? Wel...

 Donald Trump's recent Tweet discusses how Russia has gotten stronger at the behest of President Obama.

For eight years Russia "ran over" President Obama, got stronger and stronger, picked-off Crimea and added missiles. Weak! @foxandfriends

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 7, 2017

 Let's take an empirical look at that claim.

I've been warning about Italy's troubled banks since 2010, and last year I pushed two very detailed reports about what was essentially Italy's Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Italy is a mess and the IMF and EC have been too optimistic regarding its prospects for 7 years (not just lately), see Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! Fast foward to today and Bloomberg reports: Italy Approves $21 Billion Fund to Shore Up Its Troubled Banks

Italy’s parliament approved a law to plow as much as 20 billion euros ($21 billion) into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and other troubled lenders as part of the nation’s efforts to revamp its banking industry.

After my many, many warnings about Donald Trump and his administration (I'll list those a little later)... It's official, Fitch has actually warned that the Trump administration is detrimental to sovereign ratings around the world. Keep in mind that we are in this world.

It’s being reported by Sputnik News and other sources that Japan has declared Bitcoin to be legal tender. Unfortunately, I have not been able to quickly confirm this through Japanese sources. The use of BTC as legal tender in one of the world’s leading economies is a big plus for Bitcoin, and likely to lead to a much more rapid pace of adoption. Volume is strong on increasing price.

One month ago I walked through the macro influences behind Bitcoin's price pop and drop in "The Macro Truth About The Big Bitcoin Pop and Drop: The Mainstream Media Doesn't Have A Clue". Well, we're close to the peak again at $1,157.77 per coin, and the macro scene still holds a lot of explanation....

Continuing the conversation of whether it's time to short America, we investigate the administration's plans for protectionism and a tax holiday for corporate capital repatriation. The first question that needs to be asked is, "Who benefits from this, and why do they want it done?"