It is refreshing to have others give you a pat on the back. I have been receiving very encouraging emails from this blog's readers so I thought I would share them, on an anonomous basis, of course. The blog's consituency ranges from large institutional players and advisors to first time investors. I am enthused that my thoughts have been so well received.
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Herb Greenberg of the Wall Street Journal Weekend edition and MarketWatch.com:
Herb’s Hook: The company issued a press release Saturday night focusing on its debt issues. Without specifically mentioning my column, it insisted that bankruptcy is not in its future. The release also alluded to “blogs.” The only blog I can find that has done an in-depth probe of General Growth is the insightful boombustblog.com by Reggie Middleton. (Have never spoken to him, and have no idea who he is, but a scroll through his archives shows good edginess and an impressive record on credit-related issues.)
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reggie thanks again for the great work. your blog continues to stand out as superior to the many many high quality blogs I follow.
Hi Reggie,
Your blog is great. I love it. Well, please keep up the good work! And thank you for sharing your research and thoughts.
Best regards,
TC
Been reading your blog for over a month now... just a quick note to
let you know your willingness to share info is MUCH appreciated!
- Rohit
IRS
Great Blog, I would definitely be interested in more timely info for a fair price. Made some money on shorting MBIA so I owe you already!
Thanks.
CP - CA, CFA
Dear Reggie Middleton,
I have a background in real estate (> 20 years working experience plus graduate degrees) and especially enjoy reading your macro economic and real estate analyses.
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-Good evening reggie. I am an avid investor myself and a true believer that housing can and will revert close to the mean of around 2003-4. Thank you for your help I will definitely play the man on the street checking out builders in person if you ever need feedback. Thank you, and your right there isn't one damn analyst truly bearish?!
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Reggie,
Tony
Dear Mr. Middleton,
Great Blog. Until 5 years ago I was in Real Estate, and watched as the speculative mania drove prices to laughable levels. Keep up the good work and good luck with your Blog, very enjoyable.
JT L
One thing I haven't seen much talk about is valuation. I'm not a real
estate specialist, but I studied enough to take a few pokes at it. I
figure that rent/price is the most definitive metric, possibly along
with positive cashflow (I'd take the 30yr fully amortized cash
payment rate, about 2% above the interest rate). In the end, the
buyers won't be investment sharpies, it'll be regular people. And
regular people can only afford so much. They're already paying it in
rent. So the total monthly cash costs of a house, fully amortized
(because that's the only loan you're-a-gonna-get), will have to be
the same or less than the rent. Maybe significantly less, to pull in
those who are scared of buying (they will be then). I figure 12%-14%
cap rates -- what we saw in the early 1990s, and that was with low
interest rates!
Anyway, that's how I see it.
NL
DP
I have spent all day going through your very interesting posts. I have been short the big homebuilders for about 2 years (yes, i was bit early). Anyway, great posts and I look forward to reading more.
Alicia
thanks, rich in Chicago