November 29, 2020

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Zerohedge reports: Time To Go All-In The "Big Short 3.0"? 80% Of New York Hotels On Verge Of Default. To wit:

Now that hedge funds have finally started piling into the "Big Short 3.0" trade, which as we first explained back in June is basically shifting the CMBS short from malls to hotels (via the overexposed CMBX Series 9 index whose BBB- tranche is the fulcrum), every incremental development in the sector is closely scrutinized.

And judging by the lack of appreciation in the BBB- tranche of the CMBX Series 9 index which has the highest exposure to hotels - despite a very modest rebound earlier this week on vaccine hopes - developments continue to show accelerating deterioration with little sign of recovery on the horizon.

A recent tailwind blast for the CMBX 9 shorts came from a September report from NorthStar according to which, without aid 74% percent of US hotels said they expect to lay off more employees, with a whopping two thirds of properties warning they won't be able to last another six months at the current projected revenue and occupancy levels. Needless to say, should two-thirds of the US hotel industry fold, shorting the CMBX S9 BBB- could well be the most profitable (institutionally sized) short in recent history when the Fed has effectively made shorting impossible.

Since then it's only gotten worse for the hotel sector, which as even the FT now writes has hit New York hotel industry especially hard with four out of five properties underpinning commercial mortgage bonds now on the verge of default.

Those who follow me know that I have been ringing this alarm since the spring. Again, to wit:

With Every Hedge Fund and Their Mother Crowding Into the Big Short 3.0, Remember Who Warned You 1st, in 2007 and 2020!

A quick refresher....

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