November 25, 2020

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Despite Record Home Sales and Price Gains, The Real Estate Apocalypse Is Still Upon Us Featured

Business Insider reports: How 2020 broke the housing market: So many homes are selling that we could run out of new houses in months. Of course, many are likely asking, "But I thought you called this 'The Great Global Real Estate Crash of the 2020s'?".

Well, the Business Insider article depicts a structural shit in real estate preferences - a move form urban apartments to larger urban houses and suburban ans smaller town single family housing. This demand is hitting limited supply, as homebuilders are wary of overbuilding during a market bubble top - as they have learned their lessons from 2008. Add increased demand to limited supply, and record low mortgage rates (which increase demand through greater affordability) and you get higher prices. These higher prices are rising so sharply, that they more than negate the affordability increase gained from lower mortgage rates. I quote the article above:

"as of the end of July, lower mortgage rates had given buyers an extra 6.9% in purchasing power, but house prices were up 8.2% year-over-year at that point — and they've kept going up since.

In fact, the 2% appreciation in national home prices between May and July was the biggest two-month jump since at least 1991, which was when the Federal Housing Finance Authority started tracking those changes in an index."

Regardless, the crash still cometh. Why? Because:

  1. banks are tightening credit standards to brace for pandemic and popping bubble losses See .
  2. Those jobless claims are STILL (yes, even after 25 weeks) the nastiest they've been since records were kept...
  3. As a matter of fact, if we throw in the most recent numbers, and compare everything to the pre-COVID all-time high record in unemployment claims, the point is undeniable. Where will the money come from to pay for all of those new mortgages, nationwide?
  4. fredgraph 7 fecb2
  5. Take note that there has never been a time since the beginning of record keeping that initial unemployment insurance claims, continuous unemployment insurance claims, and the unemployment rate have been this high and/or have spiked nearly as hard. At the same time, there has never been so drastic a drop in GDP, either. Basically, you are quite possible biting off of big chunk of hard times going into debt now for a residential residence, particularly as prices are spiking. This is not just my opinion, as you can see from below...
  6. 55% of Homeowners Regret Taking Out a Mortgage During the Pandemic
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Last modified on Tuesday, 27 October 2020 05:50
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