Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts, engineers & developers to usher in the era of peer-to-peer capital markets.
1-212-300-5600
reggie@veritaseum.com
The Winkelvoss ETF application was rejected by the SEC, and bitcoin dropped about 20% in price. I repetitively warned those that followed me that a very low risk buying opportunity will present itself should the SEC deny the ETF application. Like clockwork, instant 30% profit opp. If you were monitoring hte prices and bought in after prices started rising (almost immediately) the buy returned over $250/coin (~30%) for anyone who took my advice.
I'm considering putting together an institutional digital asset (bitcoin and blockchain related assets) investment vehicle. The SEC has clearly delineated what they felt were the deficinecies wee in the Winkelvoss application, to wit:
To my knowledge, the bitcoin exchanges abroad aren't heavily capitalized, but the amount of capitalization needed should be minimal if the exchange is structured properly. Here''s a snapshot of the global bitcoin exchange landscape. Most of the exchange trading is done in USD but the exchanges are domiciled outside of the US (likley due to onerous SEC regulatory requirements). Be aware that I believe most of the institutional trading (in aggregate) is done OTC, and in the US.
This is no longer the case. The PBOC (Chinese Central Bank) has cracked down signficantly on Chinese bitcoin exchanges, ending fee free trading, unregulated margin lending and enforcing AML/KYC procedures. Reference:
The result is a signficant drop in bitcoin trading volume in China, passing the crown first to Japan (who just passed heavy bitcoin regulation, while declaring it legal tender) and then to the US - in direct contravention to said commenter's claim. Take note that once the free trading was halted and central bank regulation took hold, trading volumes in China collapsed in line with the ROW.
This was actually countered by the authors of the ETF application, to wit:
The Exchange, in its comment letter, asserts that bitcoin is resistant to manipulation, arguing that the increasing strength and resilience of the global bitcoin marketplace serve to reduce the likelihood of price manipulation and that arbitrage opportunities across globally diverse marketplaces allow market participants to ensure approximately equivalent pricing worldwide.39 The Exchange further asserts, in its comment letter, that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) has designated bitcoin as a commodity and is “broadly responsible for the integrity” of U.S. bitcoin spot markets.40 The Exchange acknowledges that the CFTC has not yet brought any enforcement actions based on the anti-manipulation provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act, but notes that the CFTC has issued orders against U.S. and non-U.S. bitcoin exchanges for engaging in other activity prohibited by the Commodity Exchange Act. The Exchange’s comment letter states that a regulatory framework for providing oversight and deterring market manipulation therefore currently exists in the U.S.41
Another response went as follows:
...Bitcoin is relatively uncorrelated with other assets, enabling investors to construct more efficient portfolios,43 and that, as a general matter, the underlying market for bitcoin is inherently resistant to manipulation.44 The author of the paper posits that the underlying bitcoin market is not susceptible to manipulation because (a) there is no inside information related to earnings, revenue, corporate actions, or new sources of supply; (b) the asset is not subject to the dissemination of false or misleading information; (c) each bitcoin market is an independent entity, so that a demand for liquidity does not necessarily propagate across other exchanges; (d) a substantial over-the-counter (“OTC”) market provides additional liquidity and absorption of shocks; (e) there is no market-close pricing event to manipulate; (f) the market is not subject to “spoofing” or other high-frequency-trading tactics; (g) order books on exchanges worldwide are publicly visible and available through APIs (application program interfaces); and (h) it is unlikely that any one person could obtain a dominant market share.45 The author also asserts that listing the shares on a national securities exchange and a shift from OTC trading to trading on exchanges would make the overall bitcoin market more transparent.
There were also public comments deriding the Gemini exchange, directly. While I don't, personally, care for the Gemini exchange, some of the issues taken with it were impractical. For instance:
Listen, no market is perfectly efficient, and early markets are likely to be particularly inefficient. That's one of the main reasons to introduce an ETF, to inject liquidity and efficiency. Even the largest and most efficient market in the world has trade failures, as has been noted by Bloomberg:Failed Trades in 10-Year Treasury Soar as Note Stays `Special':
The shortage of benchmark 10-year Treasury notes in the market for borrowing and lending U.S. government debt has become so pronounced that uncompleted trades are soaring. Such trades, known as fails, surged into the billions of dollars in recent days for the newest 10-year note, and may have been in the range of $6 billion to $12 billion, according to Treasury market participants familiar with the matter who requested anonymity because the figures aren’t public. While uncompleted trades occur daily, sometimes because of computer glitches, it’s unusual for the level to be so high. There were $132 million in failures for all 10-year Treasuries in the week ended Feb. 24, the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show.
I can go deeper into the SEC declination analysis for insitutional subscribers who may be interested in creating or partipating in an institutional vehicle to access bitcoin exposure. Let me know.
Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts, engineers & developers to usher in the era of peer-to-peer capital markets.
1-212-300-5600
reggie@veritaseum.com