TOLL will exhibit a lag in some of the effects since they deal in a slightly upscale market, but are far from immune. They say that they do not warehouse mortgages without a buyer committed for the paper. If true, that is good management, but

the problem still remains... Who will be the buyer for the non-conforming stuff in this market. If Countrywide can't do it, you can bet your buttocks that a fancy homebuilder can't do it. If you think 30% losses quarterly looked bad, at earnings time, wait until you see next quarter's earnings after the effect of the mortgage crunch which slows sales, the land impairment charges, and impairment from whole loans (not necessarily MBSs) that are stuck in warehouse credit line show up!!!! In addition, some of these warehouse lines will be pulled by the banks during this fiscal quarter. As my little baby girl says, "Uh Oh!!!"

The mortgage insurers and investment banks like bear Stearns have similar issues, of reliance upon credit during bad times. There was a post on another blog by a fellow pundit that detailed two large mortgage insurers having leverage of up to 90:1. They cannot afford a run on the bank, which is exactly what is to be expected as ARMS reset.

Bear Stearns has about $22 billion dollars of equity capital, and about $423 billion dollars of assets. It is also the MBS king of the Street. With this leverage, a 5% move does a lot of damage to Bear Stearns equity. The same with the mortgage insurers.

Can this happen? Well, if I am not mistaken, Countrywide's sub-prime portfolio is currently experiencing a 5% default rate, and we have not even experience the first deluge of the 2 year ARM resets or significantly higher interest rates.

1. The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis – introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem

The Latest Pan-European Sovereign Risk Subscription Research – The Good Stuff!!!

Actionable Intelligence Note For All Paying Subscribers on European Bank Research

A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf

A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional

Ireland public finances projections

Spain public finances projections_033010
UK Public Finances March 2010

Italy public finances projection

Greece Public Finances Projections

Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe

Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet

Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note

• Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Pro & Institutional
• Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Retail
• Sovereign Contagion Model - Retail (961.43 kB 2010-05-04 12:32:46)
• Sovereign Contagion Model - Pro & Institutional
• Irish Bank Strategy Note
• Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final -Retail
• Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final - Pro & Institutional

Online Spreadsheets (professional and institutional subscribers only)

• Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis
• Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts
• Portugal's Debt Ridden Finances: An Analysis of Haircuts, Restructuring and Strategy - Professional Analysis
• The Spain Sovereign Debt Haircut Analysis for Professional/Institutional
• Ireland Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts
• This is the professional addendum to the Sovereign Debt Exposure of European Insurers and Reinsurers 
• Insurer and Reinsurer Sovereign Debt Exposure Worksheets - Professional localized one.

1. What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? – illustrates the potential for the domino effect
2. The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. – attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe’s sovereign nations can effect even the perceived “stronger” nations.
3. The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries
4. The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!
5. The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???
6. I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall
7. Smoking Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware!
8. Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?
9. Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!
10. Germany Finally Comes Out and Says, “We’re Not Touching Greece” – Well, Sort of…
11. The Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word “First” Etched on the Side of Their Domino
12. As I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial Crisis
13. Once You Catch a Few EU Countries “Stretching the Truth”, Why Should You Trust the Rest?
    Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!
14. Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe
15. Moody’s Follows Suit Behind Our Analysis and Downgrades 4 Greek Banks
16. The EU Has Rescued Greece From the Bond Vigilantes,,, April Fools!!!
17. How BoomBustBlog Research Intersects with That of the IMF: Greece in the Spotlight
18. Grecian News and its Relevance to My Analysis
19. A Summary and Related Thoughts on the IMF’s “Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis
20. Euro-Gossip Debunked, Courtesy of Trichet and the IMF!
21. Greek Soap Opera Update: Back to the Bailout That Was Never Needed?
22. Many Institutions Believe Ireland To Be A Model of Austerity Implementation But the Facts Beg to Differ!
23. As I Explicitly Forwarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!
24. LTTP (Late to the Party), Euro Style: Goldman Recommends Betting On Contagion Risk In Portuguese, Spanish And Italian Banks 3 Months After BoomBustBlog
25. Beware of the Potential Irish Ponzi Scheme!
26. The Daisy Chain Effect That I Anticipated Appears To Have Commenced!
27. How Greece Killed Its Own Banks!
28. Introducing The BoomBustBlog Sovereign Contagion Model: Thus far, it has been right on the money for 5 months straight!
29. With Europe’s First Real Test of Contagion Quarrantine Failing, BoomBustBloggers Should Doubt the Existence of a Vaccination
30. What We Know About the Pan European Bailout Thus Far
31. As I Warned Yesterday, It Appears the Market Is Calling the Europeans Bluff – It’s Now Put Up Or Get Put Down
32. How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism Through the European Union!
33. The Greek Bank Tear Sheet is Now Available to the Public
34. BoomBustBlog Irish Research Becomes Reality
35. BoomBustBlog Irish Research Becomes Reality
36. Sovereign debt exposure of Insurers and Reinsurers
37. As We Have Warned, the Fissures Are Widening in the Spanish Banking System
38. “With the Euro Disintegrating, You Can Calculate Your Haircuts Here”
39. What is the Most Likely Scenario in the Greek Debt Fiasco? Restructuring Via Extension of Maturity Dates
40. The ECB and the Potential Failure of Quantitative Easing, Euro Edition – In the Spotlight!
41. Introducing the Not So Stylish Portuguese Haircut Analysis
42. A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina
43. Osborne Seems to Have Read the BoomBustBlog UK Finances Analysis, His U.K. Deficit Cuts May Rattle Coalition

Follow the UK and Eurozone topic list for our latest analysis of Pan-European issues.

Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analyst reports.

Reggie Middleton Wins CNBC's First Ever Stock Draft Investment Contest, and Does So By A Wide Margin!

The Financial Nostradamus!

Who Is Reggie Middleton & What Is BoomBustBlog?

Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record, including but not limited to, the call of....

The housing market crash in the spring of 2006 and publicly in September of 2007:

1. Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
2. Home builders falling and their grossly misleading use of off balance sheet structures to conceal excessive debtin November of 2007(not a single sell side analyst that we know of made mention of this very material point in the industry): Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!
3. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008(2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear? | After the collapse, a prudent bullish call as well...Joe Lewis on the Bear Stearns buyout Monday, March 17th, 2008: "The problem with the deal is that it is too low, and too favorable for Morgan. It is literally guaranteed to drive angst from the other side. Whenever you do a deal, you always make sure the other side gets to walk away with something.  If you don’t you always risk the deal falling though unnecessarily. $2 is a slap in the face to employees who have lost a life savings and have the power to block the deal. At the very least, by the building at market price and get the company for free!" |BSC calls are almost free and the JP Morgan Deal is not signed in stone Monday, March 17th, 2008 | This is going to be an exciting, and scary morning Monday, March 17th, 2008 | As I anticipated, Bear Stearns is not a done deal Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 [Bear Stearns stock goes from $1 and change to $10, front month calls literally explode from pennies to several dollars. The warning of Lehman Brothers before anyone had a clue!!! (February through May 2008)
4. Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of tangible equity on the street following BSC. The question is, “Can they monetize those hedges?”. I’m curious to see how the options on Lehman will be priced tomorrow. I really don’t have enough. Goes to show you how stingy I am.I bought them before Lehman was on anybody’s radar and I was still to cheap to gorge. Now, all of the alarms have sounded and I’ll have to pay up to participate or go in short. There is too much attention focused on Lehman right now. ) | I just got this email on Lehman from my clearing desk Monday, March 17th, 2008 by Reggie Middleton| Lehman stock, rumors and anti-rumors that support the rumors Friday, March 28th, 2008 | It appears that I should have dug deeper into Lehman! May 2008

The fall of commercial real estate in general (September of 2007) and the collapse of General Growth Properties in particular (November 2007) [nation's 2nd largest mall owner]

1. Will the commercial real estate market fall? Of course it will.
2. Do you remember when I said Commercial Real Estate was sure to fall?
3. The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!
4. Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II
5. General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story Gets Worse
6. BoomBustBlog.com’s answer to GGP’s latest press release and Another GGP update coming… (among over 700 pages of analysis, review the January 2008 archives or search for “GGP” for more research).

The collapse of state and municipal finances, with California in particular (May 2008):

1. Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis – part 2
2. The collapse of the regional banks (32 of them, actually) in May 2008: As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! as well asthe fall of Countrywide and Washington Mutual
   The collapse of the monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA in late 2007& 2008:A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton,Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!andAmbac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion
   The overvaluation of Goldman Sachs from June 2008 to present): “Can You Believe There Are Still Analysts Arguing How Undervalued Goldman Sachs Is? Those July 150 Puts Say Otherwise, Let’s Take a Look”, “When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs???“andReggie Middleton vs Goldman Sachs, Round 2)
3. The ENTIRE Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis(potentially soon to be the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis) starting in January of 2009 and explicit detail as of January 2010: The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
4. Ireland austerity and the disguised sink hole of debt and non-performing assets that is the Irish banking system: I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!
5. The mobile computing paradigm shift, May 2010: More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars! »
6. I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!
7. The mobile computing paradigm shift, May 2010: More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars! »

Reggie Middleton Singularly Moves The Irish Banking System, Apparently Motivates Top Banking Regulator To Resign

We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street's sell side research: Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?
There are several ways through which you can interact directly with Reggie.

Mr. Middleton Receives Positive Press Coverage, Worldwide!

"His work is so detailed, so accurate, it’s among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton’s research.

Reggie Middleton Featured in Property EU, one of Europes leading real estate publicatios

Those who wish to download the full article in PDF format can do so here: Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Sovereign Debt and the Potential for bank Failure at the ING ACADEMY-v2.

Reggie Middleton on the Peter Schiff Show Discussing Facebook

Reggie Middleton on Max Keiser ZIRP and Treasury Ponzi Scheme

Reggie Middleton takes a Bite out of Apple on his trip back from Abu Dhabi.

Reggie Middleton on Goldman Sachs Business Model

On Greek Bailouts

On the Greek Bailouts...

Interesting documentary on the rating agencies' effect on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, produced by VPRO Tegenlicht out of Amsterdam. Reggie Middleton appears in the following spots: 4:00, 22:30, 40:00...

Reggie Middleton Discussing the Rating Agencies effect on Sovereign Europe

Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick contest
Reggie Middleton Explains the Travails of the F.I.R.E. Sector on CNBC
Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Max Keiser discussing re-hypothecation thourgh MF Global at 12:32 in the video

Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Capital Account on MF Global, Goldmand Sachs and Vampire Squids

Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Capital Account concernign the European debt crisis and bank contation
Reggie Middleton on Mas Keiser discussing BNP Paribas bank runs and the potential collapse of French and European banks
Reggie Middleton on Mas Keiser discussing Goldman Sachs, currency debasement and ZIRP poisoning US banks

Reggie Middleton as the Keynote Speaker at the ING Real Estate Valuation Seminar in Amsterdam

Reggie Middleton as the Keynote Speaker at the ING Real Estate Valuation Seminar in Amsterdam

>Reggie Middleton on Bloomberg TV's Fast Forward

Reggie Middleton on CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate

Reggie Middleton discusses the fall of commercial real estate in the US

Another stint on Max Keiser discussing topics such as Goldman’s Facebook offering that never was, what happens when its the banks that walk away from a home, phantom banking profits that never were, and more shenanigans that are the tour de force that is today’s banking system and economy. To skip directly to the Reggie Middleton interview, move to 11:55 in the video.

Reggie Middleton on BNR Dutch News Radio
A short interview clip on BNR, in Dutch.

Reggie Middleton on CNBC's Squawk on the Street - 10/19/2010
Mr. Middleton discusses JP Morgan, bank risk and technology and is the only pundit in the financial media that we know of that called Apple's margin compression issues and did so successfully just hours before they reported! Click here or click below to see the video.

Reggie Middleton with Max Keiser on the Keiser Report and RT Television - Discussing JP Morgan, Derivatives, Fraudclosure and the US Oligarchy

Go to 12:20 in the video to see the portion with Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg TV: "The risk/reward ratio in commercial real estate does not look good!

Bloomberg TV & Reggie Middleton on the Flawed Case Shiller Index: "That's what they said in Japan about 12 years ago, look where they are now!"

Bloomberg TV & Reggie Middleton on the Flawed Case Shiller Index: "That's what they said in Japan about 12 years ago, look where they are now!" BBC World News: "It wasn't just Lehman Brothers: Regulatory Capture is the Term du Jour!"

Amsterdam's VPRO Backlight and Reggie Middleton on brutal honesty, destructive derivatives and the "overbanked" status of many European sovereign nations.

The bank stress tests were a sham! I know it, you know it! Everybody knew it but played along with the game anyway...
Reggie Middleton on the Young Turks: Another Economic Meltdown Coming???

Crain's New York illustrating Reggie's BoomBustBlog and the followup article in Crains illustrating his accuracy in calling real estate and the European debt debacle,"

His work is so detailed, so accurate, it's among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton's research.

Forbes (Going Short)Reggie Middleton in

Middleton's site combines self-promotion with meticulous financial analysis that is often delivered with a whiff of bathroom humor

• Las Vegas Business Press
• NY Daily News - Giants claim defunct firm Lehman Brothers owes team $300M
• MarketWatch (Herb Greenberg Blog)
• Las Vegas Review Journal (Allegiant Air)
• Las Vegas Review Journal (WYNN)
• CNN.com (Blogger Bunch) May 7, 2009- Will Banks Fail?
• CNN.com (Money & Mainstream) May 14, 2009 (see above)
• BBC World News Today (multiple appearances, see above)

Older Press Coverage and Media Appearances (samples no longer available)

• CNNfn
• Fortune
• PC Magazine
• PC World
• BET
• Real Estate Finance Today
• Interactive Week
• eWeek
• Computer Shopper

Awards

Hedge Funds Post: Best Blogs 2008