Sovereign Contagion Model - Retail (961.43 kB 2010-05-04 12:32:46)Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts, engineers & developers to usher in the era of peer-to-peer capital markets.
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About 6 months ago I said "Economic Depression Is The New Success". In said article, I forcast serial European bank runs, to wit:
From the BBC: Iceland's 'tenacity' lifts economy out of crisis
Whisper it - Iceland's economy is on its way back. The frozen island on the edge of the Arctic, which had 10 straight quarters of shrinking GDP, is suddenly on a steady run of seven quarters of growth averaging at 2.5% per annum - something that few European countries can boast. Unemployment has fallen to just below 5% and confidence is returning...
Ready! Set! Bank Run!!!
Cyprus contagion raw
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Well, today Bloomberg reports "Icelanders Run Out of Cash to Repay Foreign Debts: Nordic Credit". Basically, as percieved to be cut off from foreign markets, Icelanders are running out of non-Krona denominated cash to pay off foreign debts. Here's more on the dilemma:
Non-krona debt owed by entities besides the Treasury and the central bank due through 2018 totals about 700 billion kronur ($5.8 billion), the bank said yesterday. The projected current account surpluses over the next five years aren’t estimated to reach even half of that and will equal a shortfall of about 20 percent of gross domestic product.
The nation faces a “repayment risk of foreign debt by private entities in the economy, who don’t have access to foreign financial markets,” Sigridur Benediktsdottir, head of financial stability at the Reykjavik-based central bank, said yesterday in an interview. “We view this as being exacerbated or made worse by the fact that our current account is actually declining.”
Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson has said Iceland’s foreign exchange shortfall is “a matter of huge concern” as he tries to scale back currency controls in place since 2008. The government’s biggest challenge is to allow capital to flow freely without triggering a krona sell-off that would cause Iceland’s foreign debt to spike and undermine the nation’s economic recovery.
Wait a minute, if the Icelandic debt spikes, what happens to the Icelandic banks banks whose primary government bond (aka "risk free", ahem...) holdings happen to be Icelandic. Here's a hint: The Anatomy of a Europan Bank Run!
