Thursday, 22 January 2009 04:00

Now that the world is forced to agree with Reggie on China's growth propsects...

Now that the world agrees with me on China...

Bloomberg: China's Economy Grew 6.8% in Fourth Quarter, Slowest Pace in Seven Years

China’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in seven years as the global recession dragged down exports, increasing pressure for more government spending and lower interest rates to buoy growth.

Gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 9 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure matched the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Plummeting Chinese demand for parts and materials for exports is reverberating across Asia and the Pacific, driving Taiwan, South Korea and Australia closer to recessions and worsening Japan’s slump. Premier Wen Jiabao said this week that the government must work urgently this quarter to reverse the slowdown and maintain social stability amid a “very grim” outlook for jobs.

Even more gloomy from my man, Nouriel: The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%

The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.

When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.

Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.

Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.

And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession

So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.

.. and another "I told you so" about 5 months ago when the sell side analysts and MSM world was clamoring for China and India to save the world, if you can only save the cheerleader (Heroes quip). From yours truly...

China Macro Update (a one percent drop in the US growth rate will effectively slow down China’s growth by 1.3 percent.)
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

China: An Insight into its Past Growth and the Future (also of interest is the HSBC opinion and 2H08 update) China’s massive growth in the last decade has taken the world by surprise. Curr
Tuesday, 19 August 2008
This is one of the reasons why we are up over 500% on HSBC, with the trade capable for an additional 200% more. See:

Part one of three of my opinion of HSBC and the macro factors affecting it
(Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

HSBC Holdings, one of the largest global banks, has remained relatively unaffected by the ongoing credit turmoil and housing downturn in the US until now. The bank has outperformed its peers, most
Thursday, 14 August 2008

HSBC 1H 08 results update
(Archived/Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog/MyBlog)

Decline in net income HSBC’s net income fell 29% y-o-y to US$7.72 billion (or US$0.65 per share) in 1H 08 from US$10.9 billion (or US$0.94 per share). The bank’s prof
Thursday, 14 August 2008
Last modified on Thursday, 22 January 2009 04:00