TheGreek government's macroeconomic assumptions
also seem overstated when compared with EU estimates.

I don't think the EC's assumptions are sufficiently stringent enough.
Thus, if the EC is a little optimistic, what does that make Greece and
Italy?

Of course, if you still believe in the integrity of EU government numbers, then I suggest you carefully plow through Smoking
Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer
Beware! Even the most naive and gullible of us will start to doubt...

You see, the Italian economic situation wasn't that great to begin with
since they were one of the hardest hit in the recession of 2009.

If their overstatement of the ability to pull out of this falls flat
(which it most likely would) then you will see a spike in devt service
and interest, of course accompanied with the tried and true "Nobody
could have seen this coming" statement from the BIS. No, not the Bank
for International Settlements, but the Bureau of Internal BS
(excuse my Italian).

Above, you see the Italian government projections of interest
expenditure as compared to ours. We have not fully factored in the full
potential of tax revenue collapse due to the after effect of a sharp
recession, but I do believe you get the picture.

Subscribers should reference the our Italian
Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note for a list of banks that may be
affected by the drag of excess debt on the Italian economy.

The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, to date:

1. The
   Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis - introduces the crisis
   and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.
2. What
   Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? -
   illustrates the potential for the domino effect
3. The
   Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country,
   What Country Would That Be.. - attempts to illustrate the highly
   interdependent weaknesses in Europe's sovereign nations can effect even
   the perceived "stronger" nations.
4. The
   Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western
   European Countries

5. The
   Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just
   Might Be Contagious!

6. The
   Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???

7. I
   Think It's Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall

8. Smoking
   Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer
   Beware!
9. Financial
   Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the
   Effects of the Latter?
10. "Greek
    Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on
    Fire!
11. Germany
    Finally Comes Out and Says, "We're Not Touching Greece" - Well, Sort
    of...

12. The
    Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word "First" Etched on the Side of
    Their Domino

13. As
    I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial
    Crisis