ReggieMiddleton
My name is Daniel Xuxanabola and i'm all sports freak that have balls on it. I am always present in big events and do not miss the opportunity to shoot the ball into the net.
Website URL: http://www.gavick.com
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| Access to Blog Posts/Articles & Newsletter | X | Yes | X | Yes | X | Yes | X | Yes | X | Yes | X | Yes |
| Access to Research | X | Limited and discretionary depending on when Reggie decides to make available to the public, often after researched company has pierced the valuation band. | X | Yes, albeit an abridged version (usually 1 – 2 pages) without macro and forensic analysis. | X | Yes – full research report usually approximately 20 pages of detailed macro and forensic analysis. | X | Yes – full research report usually approximately 20 pages of detailed macro and forensic analysis. | X | Yes – full research report usually approximately 20 pages of detailed macro and forensic analysis. | X | Yes – full research report usually approximately 20 pages of detailed macro and forensic analysis. |
| Timing of when Research is made available to subscriber | X | Available at Reggie’s discretion | X | Available as soon as Reggie has published | X | Available as soon as Reggie has published, sometimes forensic findings are made available sooner than full report is posted | X | Available as soon as Reggie has published | X | Available as soon as Reggie has published. Sometimes forensic findings are made available sooner than full report is posted | X | Available as soon as Reggie has published. Sometimes forensic findings are made available sooner than full report is posted |
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BoomBustBlog boat ride 1.0: Click these links for the story behind these BoomBustBlog social events and to see higher resoltution pictures and graphics. |
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BoomBustBlog Boat Ride 2.0, on the MotherLand!: Click these links for the story behind these BoomBustBlog social events and to see higher resoltution pictures and graphics. |
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Reggie Middleton vs James CramerA regular reader and subscriber did the homework of comparing my subscription research to that of James Cramer's flagship subsciption service, Action Alert Plus, see Reggie Middleton on James Cramer: Marked to Market!. This is an update to that study using today's closing prices. There should not be any surprises here, unless you see how much Cramer charges for this stuff! Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
Reggie vs Wall StreetAs many may have surmised, my team and I have blown out the results of Wall Street's biggest and most reknowned name brand brokers. It wasn't even close enough to fit in a small graph. JP Morgan failed to beat the S&P over the period that the blog has been in existence (since 9/07). The blog's research returns are 132% above the BEST performing Wall Street Broker's analyst recommendations. For the supporting data that goes behind this study, see Blog vs. Broker, whom do you trust!. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. Reggie vs Goldman SachsWhy didn't Wall Street read my post on Lehman being a yellow lying lemon? See "Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?" and realize that this post was made on February 20th, when Goldman Sachs had a recommended price of about $55 while this blog warned that Lehman may be done for. This very similar to when I warned about the potential demise of Bear Stearns in January, when the rest of the Street had a "buy" at about $130 per share. See Is this the Breaking of the Bear?. 7 We all know how both of these stories ended. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. If you look into my original post on performance (see "Performance!"), you can see when I recommended strong shorts on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, both highly contrarian views at the beginning of the year, and both returned way over 100% and in the case of Goldman, is still pushing profits. |
Reggie vs broad market and global equity indicesCash performance of the blog's researcg as compared to all major US and global market indices. The graph below assumes the research result to be taken as a cash index, as opposed to an actual investor acting upon the research, which would have to be done in a margin account (to short), options or swaps. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
Reggie Middleton vs Greenwich and Park AvenueWe have totally trounced ALL hedge fund indices, taking much less risk to get multiples of return. These are the results against the Barclay's hedge fund indices year to date. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size
The following chart is the comparison from the inception of the blog. Slight differences in results stem from adjustments for comparison against different products, ex. analysts recommendations versus an actual researched portfolio of all holdings. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size
The posts, research and opinions (date stamped) behind all of these graphs can be found in the Actionable Research post (you'll have to scroll down towards the bottom, once there). A glimpse into my proprietary accountThese are the results of my trading screen as of the close of US markets today (I've been spreading around the globe). Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. In conjunction with the date stamped, blog post map (the Actionable Research9 post), you can use the graph below to see how well my proprietary research performed in my own account on a monthly basis. This is where I may loosen up by providing a premium subscription service where I share the reasoning behind my trades and positions as it applies to the research that I release. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. From a risk weighted perspective, my proprietary account has pulled even farther away from both the broad market and ALL of the BarclayHedge fund indices, far away. I have assumed much less risk to get an average of over 10x the return. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. |
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As a serial entrepreneur and perpetual student, Reggie Middleton's unconventional experience has given him the ability to recognize value, or the lack thereof, well before much of the professional populace. His ability to identify opportunity and his "out-the-box" mind-set are due to years of entrepreneurial pursuits in insurance, financial valuation/modeling, technology, media, and real estate
After
attending Howard University in Washington, D.C. from which he obtained a BBA in
business management. Reggie returned to NY and joined the ranks of Prudential
Insurance, training in financial product sales. Feeling constrained in his
ability to pursue institutional clients, he moved to a small securities firm and
became a series 7 broker. Again feeling constrained in his ability to
creatively pursue his ideas, in his early twenties he struck out on his own and
created margined mutual fund timing programs for his own trading account. This
was the first in many unorthodox proprietary investment and risk management
strategies Mr. Middleton has created .with great
success
In the early 1990s, Reggie, an entrepreneur in his early twenties, entered the insurance and risk management field by brokering insurance for entire municipalities and political subdivisions on an exclusive basis. He also conceptualized, marketed, jointly prepared and submitted LORIE (the Livery Organizations Reciprocal Insurer Entity - a reciprocal insurer owned by the insureds) - to the NYS insurance department for licensing.
Reggie then formed Municipal Risk Management - a venture with a major accounting/consulting firm to offer risk management, consulting and brokerage services to small and medium sized municipalities.
Mr. Miiddleton also pioneered derivative and structured product use in health insurance via his concept, "Financial Re", a tax advantaged, ERISA compliant, off shore financial reinsurer. It was designed to securitize FASB 106 retirement medical liability risk to be sold through the debt markets using Reggie's own ‘Max Notes' (option embedded notes linked to a proprietary medical loss index). He recruited the assistance of partners from the big five accounting and consulting firms for purposes of validating and marketing Financial Re's derivative debt securities. These securities (Max Notes) had near-zero correlation to conventional equity and debt markets and as such were designed to appeal to institutional investors looking to diversify risk.
In the midst of the DOT.com boom era, Reggie, a self-taught technology buff and student in financial valuation, recognized opportunities to incorporate his passions for technology and financial valuation and transitioned to the distributed technology and media industries Again, as an entrepreneur, Reggie created, marketed and sold web-based, decision support and financial modeling systems featuring file sharing, collaboration and team based productivity for M&A, LBO, private equity and corporate valuation deals. These high-end financial models, financial modeling techniques, corporate valuation techniques, and methodologies quantitatively captured the intangible assets from technology companies that represented a significant portion of their value such as human capital, brand value, viral marketing and network effects. Reggie's modeling experience includes information technology TCO/ROIC, LBO, M&A, private equity analysis and valuation, financial derivatives, partnership valuation, real estate analysis and valuation, derivative and structured product engineering, and corporate valuation via proprietary economic profit methodologies.
Mr. Middleton was one of the early entrepreneurial dot.commers to adopt the off shoring model, coding entire software platforms at below market cost through engineering relationships with off shore IT consulting shops & development sites in Bangalore, India. In addition, he expanded this platform to a full featured Application Service Provider platform, web-based office suite and web-based collaborative knowledge sharing platform - known as NuoMedia, which competed with Microsoft's Office suite as a desktop office productivity solution. NuoMedia was the first to market publicly available Web-based office productivity suite and first to be introduced to the public through the media (beating Microsoft and Sun Microsystems as seen in Reggie's interview on CNNfn's Digital Jam, Sept. 1, 1999).
Mr. Middleton began investing in residential real estate, sensing the boom portion of the boom bust cycle in the year 2000. He engaged in real estate investment/management, returning several multiples of the broad market averages, approaching four digit returns from 2000 to 2006.
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Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog.com Press Room
Thursday, 01 January 2009 13:17 Published in Uncategorized
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Who is Reggie Middleton?: A Backgrounder
For the Media OnlyCall +1.718.407.4751 or email our customer relations. What does Reggie Middleton do and how does he do it
Performance & Research: Reggie beat ALL of the major Wall Street analysts, hedge fund indices, pop investment personalities and global market indices by at least 100% Facts & Figures
Reggie had nearly 5 million visitors since September of 2007, and over 3,000 subscribers
Reggie's BoomBustBlog research model has produced returns of approximately 100% for the year ending December 31st, 2008 while practically every other professional investor and index was deeply negative
Reggie's proprietary trading account finished the year up well over 400% on a time weighted basis for the year ending December 31st, 2008
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Reggie has appeared in the following: Forbes, Las Vegas Business Press, NY DailyNews, CNNfn: Digital Jam, Fortune, PC Magazine, BET, PC World, Real Estate Finance Today, Interactive Week, eWeek, Computer Shopper |
Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree. You can consider me the individual investor of the new millenium.
Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not make my living from selling advice, I make my living from acting upon my own advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories. I am not a broker/bank, hence I do not have to hawk my services. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of main
stream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it!
I find most research lacking, in both quality and quantity. Thus, the reason why I had to create my own research staff of high caliber analysts and forensic accountants was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions.
So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer much of what I produce to the public at highly subsidized prices or free of charge. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be.
Very recently, I have started charging for the forensics portion of my work, which has freed up the resources to develop the site to deliver even more research for free, particularly on the global macro and opinion front. This move has allowed me to serve an more diverse constituency, which now includes the institutional consumer (ie., investment turned commercial banks, hedge funds, pensions, etc,) as well as the newbie individual investor who is just getting started - basically the two polar opposites of the investing spectrum. I am proud to announce major banks as paying clients, and brand new investors who take my book recommendations and opinions on true wealth and success to heart.
So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.
Our Subscribers - Social Proof:
- Banks (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citibank)
- Consultants (Deloitte)
- Hedge Funds (Citadel)
- Central Banks and global quasi-government agenices (the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Canada, The International Monetary Fund)
- Insurance companies (The Hartford)
- The nations largest real estate companies (General Growth Properties)
- High net worth and very high net worth individuals .
- 75% of the BoomBustBloggers are executives and professionals
- Over 35% of Reggie;s readers make over $100,000 per year, and over 1/4 make over $200,000 per year.
- 32% of Reggie's readers are millionaires.
- 18% are multimillionaires
- 5% have net worths over $10 million.
- 17% have investable assets over a million dollars
- 9% have currently investable assets over $2 million
Praise from our readers/subscribers
- wanted to say hello and thank you for all the work thats done here. i know nothing, basically about investments, markets, stratagy etc. i'm a working a playwright-actor-director. thats my line. therein lies my cash supply. ive not traded on your advise as yet, i do indeed think that may change over time. i stuck my 550 in the pot and the langauge of the martkets i'm taking in from you is eyepopping. the curve is breaking down quickly and i thank you and your team.
- From KC Dallas – “For those ignorant to assume the style of ones writing is an indication of their investment knowledge is, well, ignorant. Those that chose to bash Reggie Middleton should check out his work. It is some of the most in-depth analysis you will find!
While the pundits were telling everyone the worst was over and to buy, buy, buy (that includes Mr. Bove) Reggie's analysis told you how sick the financial companies were. If the pundits took the time to do their job and actually report the truth, they would have told you exactly what Reggie had been stating since 2007.Pundits have a job and that's to help Wall Street take your money.I highly recommend those who decided to bash on Reggie to take a look at his site and his data. You WILL NOT be disappointed. You'll get the truth backed up by factual data. Look over some of the data Reggie put out there on MS, LEH, GS, and WFC.When the pundits started reporting on earnings reports that were stretched truths, you would have already known exactly what amounts of Hide the Level 3 assets these firms had.If you want to see a difference in your accounts, check out his work. Yes, I am biased. Why? Because I've been checking out his site for months and I've been very well educated by his information as well as benefiting financially. Reggie... Thanks for an awesome year!!!! Looking forward to 2009 with you.”
- From Prescient – “For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow! Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.
- From Smarty Pants “Nice summary of the Keynesian viewpoint of the economy. As your chart of US consumer credit shows, the US economy has been running on borrowed money for some time. The past four years of "growth" have been paid for by borrowing nearly $500 Billion to spend…….. That said, Mr. Middleton has presented an extensive and useful body of economic evidence that, for those who fantasize about a return to 2005, there really is more to fear than fear itself.”
- From Mike – “Hello Reggie:I am a new subscriber. Great research reports from what I am reading this far. Question: is there a summary listing of companies that you have covered or looking at from an investment point of view? There is a lot of content here and want to get caught up and focus on where the opportunities are. I do not want to overlook any potential investment opportunities. Great write up on HIG (The Hartford). I am actually an employee of the company, so it was a very insightful read. Stock rebounded after Friday's "investor day" but I think troubles still loom..particulary is the commercial mortgage market continue to get hit. Thanks Mike
- From Shaunsnoll - “you've been KILLING it lately!! is this the longest streak you've ever been on? because its the longest streak of anyone i personally know for sure. looking forward to the emerging market stuff Reggie!
- Reggie has been consistently bearish on the financial stocks for many months. I, for, one, am appreciative of his insights and articles, and have made a lot of money following many of his short recommendations. I would have done even better if I had followed them more aggressively!
See what else my readers have been saying in our Praise section .
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We have made a downloadable sample of our research available without registration. Simply download this zip file: Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog
Performance update for the week of starting 11/17/2008In the vein of comparing the blog's research to name brand hedge funds, see "Another Name Brand bites the BoomBust!", I have decided to update the performance charts and announce the availability of a new institutional program that will allow a new higher tier subscriber level to gain access into my outlook in regards to the positions that I have taken. Below you will find the most recent results to all of the performance comparisons that I have made in the last couple of months. |
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| Sample Period: 16 months | Reggie Middleton Proprietary Account | S&P 500 | Barclay Hedge Fund Index | Barclay Event Driven Index | Barclay Equity Long Bias Index | Barclay Equity Long/Short Index | Barclay Market Neutral Index | Barclay Equity Short Bias Index | Barclay Fund of Funds Index | Barclay Global Macro Index | Barclay Multi-Strategy Index |
| standard deviation | 22.42% | 7.01% | 2.20% | 2.27% | 3.38% | 1.93% | 1.61% | 4.04% | 2.27% | 2.07% | 2.60% |
| skewness | 14.91% | -238.09% | 23.04% | -117.52% | -77.38% | -57.93% | -30.60% | 37.98% | -39.61% | 35.72% | -214.14% |
| kurtosis | -61.54% | 745.10% | -110.58% | 218.86% | 25.36% | 20.48% | -88.88% | -93.94% | -19.14% | -66.10% | 649.98% |
| beta | -189.06% | 100.00% | 13.16% | 36.29% | 64.37% | 39.93% | 16.47% | -89.40% | 39.80% | 21.71% | 46.07% |
| Sortino ratio | 152.50% | -43.34% | -4.02% | -30.48% | -23.56% | -31.90% | -16.06% | 125.42% | -36.97% | 7.95% | -27.82% |
| Sharpe ratio | 58.08% | -41.01% | -0.27% | -26.64% | -19.44% | -26.77% | -9.72% | 48.02% | -33.19% | 7.82% | -25.01% |
| Correlation to S&P 500 | -34.74% | 100.00% | 23.04% | 74.88% | 72.84% | 79.03% | 38.87% | -84.12% | 67.76% | 43.24% | 67.69% |
| Jensen's alpha: 16 months | 9.35% | Not Applicable | 0.20% | -0.03% | 0.37% | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.52% | -0.12% | 0.51% | 0.08% |
| Omega: 16 months | 354.57% | 19.27% | 93.53% | 44.49% | 56.74% | 46.16% | 71.83% | 370.84% | 39.83% | 114.00% | 40.44% |
| maximum drawdown | 20.28% | 53.35% | 7.21% | 10.73% | 13.26% | 9.56% | 6.32% | 7.30% | 13.54% | 6.17% | 12.31% |
| Information ratio | 44.82% | undefined | 40.25% | 32.70% | 34.77% | 41.86% | 40.89% | 46.86% | 29.51% | 49.65% | 33.60% |
| Stutzer index: 16 months | 340.71% | 0.00% | 92.02% | 67.67% | 65.43% | 78.11% | 91.00% | 246.47% | 69.62% | 149.27% | 91.64% |
| Upside potential ratio | 196.73% | 10.09% | 60.03% | 25.23% | 31.91% | 28.24% | 42.29% | 177.36% | 25.28% | 66.91% | 19.51% |
| Calmar ratio | 59.17% | -5.55% | 1.04% | -4.88% | -4.35% | -4.54% | -1.20% | 27.69% | -4.96% | 3.93% | -4.62% |
Risk adjusted returns from a visual perspective. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
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All transactions are final, unless Reggie Middleton, LLC is unable to perform. There are no returns, refunds or cancellations. In the case of non-performance, a cancellation will be available with a prorated refund based on a 360 day calendar year.
All subscriptions are automatically recurring in nature, thus are to be automatically billed periodically unless explicitly canceled by the subscriber. Purchased subscriptions allow access to certain portions of Reggie Middleton's, Reggie Middleton, LLC's and BoomBustBlog.com's information, data, research and opinion (hereinafter known as "research"). This research is the proprietary, copyrighted property of Reggie Middleton, LLC and is not to be shared, transmitted physically or through electronic means or in any other way disseminated to persons or entities other than the paid subscriber(s) whose account was given authorization through BoomBustBlog.com to initially access said research.
Reggie Middleton, LLC, through the BoomBustBlog.com web site, will attempt to produce 6 (six) analytical reports per calendar year. Availability of information, data, staffing and technical issues may affect the quantity and timeliness of the reports and opinions issued.
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Reggie Middleton, LLC's Boom Bust Blog analysis and conclusions in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Reggie Middleton, LLC recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the Companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these Companies to disagree with Reggie Middleton LLC's conclusions. The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Companies. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Reggie Middleton, LLC concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. The content herein is not, and should not be considered, investment advice of any form or fashion. Users of this content agree to hold harmless and indemnify Reggie Middleton, LLC and its agents, contractors, members, employees and associates against any action that may occur out of the use of this material.
Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Reggie Middleton, LLC and its affiliates may own investments that are bullish or bearish on the subject entity in this material. These investments may include credit-default swaps, equity put or call options, warrants and short sales of common stock. Reggie Middleton, LLC is in the business of trading - buying and selling - public and private securities. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Reggie Middleton, LLC to change its position regarding the Companies and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the Companies.
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Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog research outperforms, by a wide margin!
Let's contrast the worst year in recorded hedge fund history to the past year and year to date results of the model portfolio built upon the BoomBustBlog.com research and opinion (as of 9/26/08). Hedge funds charge a lot of money, but their performance has beaten the broad averages of late, and the better ones outperform the broad market in general. But!!!! There's always a but, isn't it? There are better ways to skin a cat. Let's take a look-see.
As you can see, if one were to buy or sell (short) the stocks opined accordingly in this blog's downloadable pdf reports the first trading day available the reports were released, and simply held the position until today (to be referenced as the "blog model"), you would have thoroughly trounced the S&P500 broad market and outperformed the Barclay's Hedge Fund Index by considerably over 50x, not to mention positive performance while the hedge fund indices and broad (US and global) market indices were negative! My proprietary trading account is primarily buy and hold in principle, but the extreme volatility in the markets has forced me to do some trading. I also make very heavy use of options, risk management, cash management, etc. and I am not afraid to use leverage, although I have not utilized any for over a year. This has allowed me to set realistic ROI goals approaching 400% (unfortunately, I cannot discuss my actual personal performance). After getting to know some of the blog users a little better, I have come to realize that many could benefit from trading (or at least buy and sell) guidance. I have been reticent to give such for a variety of reasons, but I am pondering several solutions that can help my consituency.
If one were to extend the horizon to one year or past, what would the outcome be?
The blog's research model outpeformed the hedge fund index by over 33x, and the broad market index is not easily comparable, with nearly 100 percent spread in performance. I would consider this dramatic, indeed.
If we were to parse through Barclay's index to search for outlying overperformance, would it compare to this blog's staid "model"? Let's see...
Year to date:
copy_of_copy_of_blog_chart_with_shaun_updates_part_2_no_money_10809_image001.png
The closest runner up is the Short Equity Bias index, wiht a mere 27% of the blog's research model performance. If we look back for an entire year...
copy_of_copy_of_blog_chart_with_shaun_updates_part_2_no_money_10809_image003.png
The second runner up inches slightly closer, but still now cigar, 32% of the Blog's research performance. For those that are wondering, over 2,600 funds report to this index. So, I ask, should a blog charge 2 and 20?
We have started receiving our first few institutional clients, a few of the very large global banks are coming on board. I would expect to see a lot more soon.
Update on the next phase of my investment thesis
The positions taken on the "next phase" companies opined on have returned handsomely. Smithfield Foods has been a standout. 66% percent of my position was popped out due to hitting my (way out of the money) profit targets. The remaining position has returned many multiples.
This serves to bolster my conviction in the thesis, but dampens my spirits, for the veracity of the thesis is predicated upon rather dire economic events unfolding. I have decided to release the Smithfield report to non-paying subscribers and the general public due to the amount of price movement that has already occurred, and to exemplify the quality of research that my team has produced in this sector that is a universe away from the financial services, insurance and real estate that we have been covering for the past year.
I would like to add that the Navistar report should have enabled those who believe in the research to take advantage of the big pop emanating from the surprise earnings announcement. Any who did were handsomely rewarded. Feel free to download Smithfield Foods Professional report here:
SFD_Pro Report_Final_240908 (286.98 kB 2008-09-25 01:32:23)
There is a lot of content on tap, and coming very soon. The bankruptcy candidates are also on their way...
Here is a listing of the companies opined, and a a link to at least one of the posts containing an opinion. The column on the far right refers to those companies who I performed an actual forensic analysis or deep study on. The coluimn to the left of it simply lists all the companies mentioned. Be aware that I may mention a company without feeling strongly enough about it to take a position.
The timeline of BoomBustBlog analysis
| Blog post date | Companies negatively Blogged | Price as of Blog Date or following trading day | 9/30/2008 | % change | Assumed Holding Period in Months | Holding Period Return | |
| 1-Sep-07 | len | $28.57 | $13.81 | (51.66%) | 12.97 | 95.87% | 95.87% |
| hov | $12.60 | $7.62 | (39.52%) | 12.97 | 73.56% | 73.56% | |
| phm | $16.95 | $13.89 | (18.05%) | 12.97 | 30.61% | 30.61% | |
| ctx | $29.12 | $15.36 | (47.25%) | 12.97 | 89.01% | 89.01% | |
| dhom | $2.08 | $0.55 | (73.56%) | 12.97 | 141.62% | 141.62% | |
| 1-Sep-07 | bzh | $11.29 | $5.62 | (50.22%) | 12.97 | 94.95% | 94.95% |
| rdn | $18.11 | $4.36 | (75.92%) | 12.97 | 146.36% | 146.36% | |
| mtg | $30.34 | $6.72 | (77.85%) | 12.97 | 150.21% | 150.21% | |
| 1-Sep-07 | dhi | $15.41 | $12.10 | (21.48%) | 12.97 | 37.47% | 37.47% |
| tol | $21.84 | $24.38 | 11.63% | 12.97 | (28.75%) | (28.75%) | |
| bsc | $114.13 | $8.72 | (92.36%) | 12.97 | 175.48% | 175.48% | |
| cfc | $19.81 | $4.25 | (78.55%) | 12.97 | 151.60% | 151.60% | |
| 3-Sep-07 | mbi | $61.92 | $10.85 | (82.48%) | 12.90 | 159.46% | 159.46% |
| abk | $64.63 | $2.17 | (96.64%) | 12.90 | 187.79% | 187.79% | |
| 8-Sep-07 | wm | $34.74 | $0.16 | (99.54%) | 12.93 | 193.59% | 193.59% |
| 16-Oct-07 | ryl | $23.96 | $25.38 | 5.93% | 11.67 | (17.34%) | (17.34%) |
| 19-Dec-07 | ms | $50.08 | $20.99 | (58.09%) | 11.67 | 110.68% | 110.68% |
| 8-Jan-08 | ggp | $33.90 | $14.21 | (58.08%) | 11.67 | 110.67% | 110.67% |
| 14-Jan-08 | bac | $39.22 | $30.25 | (22.87%) | 8.53 | 43.17% | 43.17% |
| 25-Jan-08 | kbh | $23.65 | $19.34 | (18.22%) | 8.17 | 33.87% | 33.87% |
| 19-Feb-08 | leh | $53.57 | $0.00 | (100.00%) | 7.37 | 197.43% | 197.43% |
| 8-Feb-08 | ago | $21.57 | $15.68 | (27.31%) | 7.73 | 52.04% | 52.04% |
| 21-Feb-08 | key | $23.03 | $9.80 | (57.45%) | 7.30 | 112.32% | 112.32% |
| 25-Feb-08 | ffhs | $8.40 | $6.50 | (22.62%) | 7.17 | 42.66% | |
| ms | $45.28 | $20.99 | (53.64%) | 7.17 | 104.71% | 104.71% | |
| c | $24.74 | $17.75 | (28.25%) | 7.17 | 53.93% | 53.93% | |
| wfc | $31.69 | $33.25 | 4.92% | 7.17 | (12.42%) | (12.42%) | |
| gs | $177.36 | $120.70 | (31.95%) | 7.17 | 61.32% | 61.32% | |
| mer | $54.42 | $22.00 | (59.57%) | 7.17 | 116.57% | ||
| wb | $34.72 | $1.84 | (94.70%) | 7.17 | 186.83% | 186.83% | |
| 17-Mar-08 | bsc | $4.81 | $9.33 | 93.97% | 6.43 | 180.18% | 180.18% |
| 27-Mar-08 | kfn | $12.71 | $6.93 | (45.48%) | 6.10 | 88.38% | 88.38% |
| 2-Apr-08 | jef | $17.15 | $20.00 | 16.62% | 5.93 | -35.81% | |
| 15-May-08 | pnc | $69.39 | $68.00 | (2.00%) | 4.50 | 1.43% | 1.43% |
| 22-May-08 | bpop | $11.52 | $8.07 | (29.95%) | 4.27 | 57.32% | |
| sti | $54.85 | $38.75 | (29.35%) | 4.27 | 56.13% | 56.13% | |
| snv | $12.32 | $10.25 | (16.80%) | 4.27 | 31.03% | ||
| mi | $23.59 | $18.00 | (23.70%) | 4.27 | 44.82% | ||
| asbc | $28.29 | $19.40 | (31.42%) | 4.27 | 60.27% | ||
| fctr | $30.20 | $30.02 | (0.60%) | 4.27 | (1.38%) | ||
| mtb | $89.89 | $80.00 | (11.00%) | 4.27 | 19.43% | 19.43% | |
| hban | $9.23 | $7.45 | (19.28%) | 4.27 | 35.99% | 35.99% | |
| bbt | $33.44 | $31.00 | (7.30%) | 4.27 | 12.02% | ||
| jpm | $43.05 | $41.00 | (4.76%) | 4.27 | 6.95% | ||
| usb | $33.24 | $32.75 | (1.47%) | 4.27 | 0.37% | ||
| cof | $48.92 | $44.00 | (10.06%) | 4.27 | 17.54% | 17.54% | |
| wm | $9.45 | $0.16 | (98.31%) | 4.27 | 194.04% | 194.04% | |
| cfc | $4.69 | $4.25 | (9.38%) | 4.27 | 16.19% | 16.19% | |
| rf | $19.14 | $8.25 | (56.90%) | 4.27 | 111.22% | ||
| zion | $43.47 | $34.25 | (21.21%) | 4.27 | 39.85% | ||
| tcbk | $15.92 | $19.70 | 23.74% | 4.27 | -50.06% | ||
| fitb | $19.88 | $9.11 | (54.18%) | 4.27 | 105.78% | ||
| sov | $8.78 | $2.33 | (73.46%) | 4.27 | 144.35% | ||
| 16-Jun-08 | ge | $28.97 | $23.10 | (20.26%) | 3.47 | 37.95% | 37.95% |
| 30-Jul-08 | axp | $37.54 | $32.55 | (13.29%) | 2.00 | 25.68% | 25.68% |
| 30-Jul-08 | hbc | $82.32 | $77.80 | (5.49%) | 2.00 | 10.07% | 10.07% |
| 21-Aug-08 | nav | $55.30 | $51.26 | (7.31%) | 1.30 | 14.12% | 14.12% |
| 26-Aug-08 | wire | $18.70 | $17.73 | (5.19%) | 1.13 | 9.88% | 9.88% |
| 11-Sep-08 | sfd | $21.00 | $14.36 | (31.62%) | 0.63 | 62.75% | 62.75% |
| Average | Average | Average | |||||
| 1/1/2208 | Since 7/07 | 7.47 | 64.41% | 71.31% | |||
| 17-Dec-03 | Year to Date | 5.42 | 50.19% | 53.73% |
A verbose listing of posts and articles concerning the stocks above can be found in "More on the accuracy of this blog's research " and a compendium of recent yet pleasant emails to the author can be found here: Some pleasant emails. Click the following link to Subscribe Now!
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Tweet me!
Who am I? Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree.
Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not sell advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories, and I do not sell research. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it! I welcome any and all to peruse my blog, use my custom hacked collaborative social tools, read the articles, download the files, and make a critical comparison of the opinion referencing the situation at hand and the time stamp on the blog post to the reality both at the time of the post and the present. Hopefully, you will be as impressed with the Boom Bust as I am and our constituency.
I pay for significant information and data, and am well aware of the value of quality research. I find most currently available research lacking, in both quality and quantity. The reason why I had to create my own research staff was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions.
So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer most of what I produce to the public without charge - free to distribute and redistribute, as long as it is left unaltered and full attribution is given to the author and owner. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be. So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities. I have included a more in depth bio at the bottom of the page for those who really, really need to know more about me.
Cordially,
Reggie Middleton and the Boom Bust Blog
memonaco.jpg
Reggie Middleton
As a serial entrepreneur and perpetual student, Reggie Middleton's unconventional experience has given him the ability to recognize value, or the lack thereof, well before much of the professional populace. His ability to identify opportunity and his "out-the-box" mind-set are due to years of entrepreneurial pursuits in insurance, financial valuation/modeling, technology, media, and real estate
After
attending Howard University in Washington, D.C. from which he obtained a BBA in
business management. Reggie returned to NY and joined the ranks of Prudential
Insurance, training in financial product sales. Feeling constrained in his
ability to pursue institutional clients, he moved to a small securities firm and
became a series 7 broker. Again feeling constrained in his ability to
creatively pursue his ideas, in his early twenties he struck out on his own and
created margined mutual fund timing programs for his own trading account. This
was the first in many unorthodox proprietary investment and risk management
strategies Mr. Middleton has created .with great
success
In the early 1990s, Reggie, an entrepreneur in his early twenties, entered the insurance and risk management field by brokering insurance for entire municipalities and political subdivisions on an exclusive basis. He also conceptualized, marketed, jointly prepared and submitted LORIE (the Livery Organizations Reciprocal Insurer Entity - a reciprocal insurer owned by the insureds) - to the NYS insurance department for licensing.
Reggie then formed Municipal Risk Management - a venture with a major accounting/consulting firm to offer risk management, consulting and brokerage services to small and medium sized municipalities.
Mr. Miiddleton also pioneered derivative and structured product use in health insurance via his concept, "Financial Re", a tax advantaged, ERISA compliant, off shore financial reinsurer. It was designed to securitize FASB 106 retirement medical liability risk to be sold through the debt markets using Reggie's own ‘Max Notes' (option embedded notes linked to a proprietary medical loss index). He recruited the assistance of partners from the big five accounting and consulting firms for purposes of validating and marketing Financial Re's derivative debt securities. These securities (Max Notes) had near-zero correlation to conventional equity and debt markets and as such were designed to appeal to institutional investors looking to diversify risk.
In the midst of the DOT.com boom era, Reggie, a self-taught technology buff and student in financial valuation, recognized opportunities to incorporate his passions for technology and financial valuation and transitioned to the distributed technology and media industries Again, as an entrepreneur, Reggie created, marketed and sold web-based, decision support and financial modeling systems featuring file sharing, collaboration and team based productivity for M&A, LBO, private equity and corporate valuation deals. These high-end financial models, financial modeling techniques, corporate valuation techniques, and methodologies quantitatively captured the intangible assets from technology companies that represented a significant portion of their value such as human capital, brand value, viral marketing and network effects. Reggie's modeling experience includes information technology TCO/ROIC, LBO, M&A, private equity analysis and valuation, financial derivatives, partnership valuation, real estate analysis and valuation, derivative and structured product engineering, and corporate valuation via proprietary economic profit methodologies.
Mr. Middleton was one of the early entrepreneurial dot.commers to adopt the off shoring model, coding entire software platforms at below market cost through engineering relationships with off shore IT consulting shops & development sites in Bangalore, India. In addition, he expanded this platform to a full featured Application Service Provider platform, web-based office suite and web-based collaborative knowledge sharing platform - known as NuoMedia, which competed with Microsoft's Office suite as a desktop office productivity solution. NuoMedia was the first to market publicly available Web-based office productivity suite and first to be introduced to the public through the media (beating Microsoft and Sun Microsystems as seen in Reggie's interview on CNNfn's Digital Jam, Sept. 1, 1999).
Mr. Middleton began investing in residential real estate, sensing the boom portion of the boom bust cycle in the year 2000. He engaged in real estate investment/management, returning several multiples of the broad market averages, approaching four digit returns from 2000 to 2006.
Sensing
the top of the real estate market in 2004, Mr. Middleton started liquidating
his portfolio and searched for alternative assets in which to invest. Failing
to find any real assets worth pursuing, he spent a year caring for his newborn
daughter while contemplating his next venture. In 2007, he opted to start a
private alternative investment fund consisting solely of his own account, which
could benefit from what he saw as an extremely overpriced credit and real asset
market entering the bust phase of the boom-bust cycle. As a fine tuning of his
Boom Bust micro/macroeconomic investment methodology, which was an extension of
his technology and real estate investment principals, he implemented these
principals in his trading account as a real-time demonstration while documenting
them publicly via the BoomBustBlog.com. The blog is a global macro investment publication
through which he freely publishes his research, opinions, and reasoning behind
his investment decisions.
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