Posts Tagged ‘Investment Banks’

JP Morgan Aids in the (Fraudulent???) Sale of Restricted Stock and Insider Stock Sales

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

I’ve been harping on banks a lot lately, so why give up a good thing. Next up, we have a “how to” manual for JP Morgan private bank salespersons to assist wealthy executives in insider trading and the liquidation and/or monetization of restricted stock. You see, this gets sticky because it very well may be against the law to put a hedging position on your restricted stock portfolio based upon non-public information. As a matter of fact, I’m pretty sure it is against the law. This is how JP Morgan presents it…

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Re: Morgan Stanley’s Q2 2010 Results – The Mainstream Media May Be Hazadous to Your Wealth!

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

The mainstream media has gone Ga Ga over Morgan Stanley’s latest results. Just take a look…

The Wall Street Journal Blog: Morgan Stanley Earnings: Sticking It to Goldman Sachs‎

Morgan Stanley, which beat earnings analyst expectations by posting better trading revenue than its rivals. While Goldman Sachs Group and J.P. Morgan Chase took hits to their trading books, Morgan Stanley’s trading revenue doubled to $3.1 billion from a year ago. What was the secret?

Well, apparently the secret was to get your ass handed to you in the previous comparable period while simultaneously under performing your peers, then turn in a simply below mediocre performance the next reporting period and you will receive accolades from the mainstream media. After all, who cares about those [BoomBust]Blogs who actually bother to read into the results.

The International Business Journal: Morgan Stanley earnings surge, credits trading revenues to DVA

On the revenues side, results in its three divisions were much improved from last year but slightly worse than last quarter. Net revenues in Global Wealth Management were impressive, coming in at $3.07 billion, compared to $1.92 billion last year and $3.1 billion last quarter.

Like rival Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley saw lower underwriting revenues from last quarter and last year, reflecting the difficult environment for investment banking. However, unlike Goldman, Morgan Stanley’s trading revenues were strong, coming in at $3.3 billion, up 93 percent from last year and down 11 percent from last quarter.

I don’t even think these guys bothered to read the results at all. They are comparing revenues pre-multi billion dollar acquisition with the post acquisition entity. Hey, I can double my revenues if I purchased a company that had 3x my revenues too! This is just sloppy! Yet, these euphoric headlines were all over the place as MS stock climbs nearly 10%. Yes, MS did relatively better than GS, but GS is a federally insured hedge fund (that’s right, I said it), and we all know how most hedge funds do in times of volatility and declining prices. Well, I hate to rain on the positive earnings parade, but a couple of my subscribers have requested the truth be told!

Reggie’s Take:

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The BoomBustBlog Review of Goldman Sach’s 2nd Quarter, 2010 Performance: I Told You So!

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

About three months ago, Boombustblog forewarned that GS will stand out to be the worst hit in the event of trend reversal in the financial markets and the company will have little means to escape the implications of the same on its profitability and solvency. The company generates 60-70% of the revenues from trading activities which is largely dictated by the unpredictable turn of financial events. While the financial markets were celebrating the US officially coming out of recession in the 1Q10, the subsequent Eurozone crisis (see the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series) and the slowdown of expectations in 2Q10 has beaten down the irrational exuberance and the markets experienced spurt in volatility and drop in prices. The consequent softening of trading revenues in 2Q10 vis-Ă -vis 1Q10 drove 31% drop in revenues and 82% drop in net income.

The chart below demonstrates how the volatility of the revenues from the trading and principal investments trickles down into volatility of the total revenues and profits of Goldman Sachs. I don’t call Goldman the world’s most expensive federally insured hedge fund for nothing!

If those that follow me remember, I was bearish on Goldman long before became popular, and profitably too (as the media and analysts fawned all over this company)!

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On Goldman’s Latest Earnings Results…

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

CNBC (the world’s biggest Goldman cheerleader) reports “Goldman Sachs’ Revenue Falls, but Profit Beats Views” even as Bloomberg reports “Goldman Sachs Profit Falls 82%, Misses Estimates on Trading-Revenue Drop”. Whoah… It’s hard to get a straight answer out of these news guys, ain’t it? Well, one thing they both have in common is that Goldman’s trading revenue fell over 40%! Hey, I told you so. Reference my overview of GS’s last previous quarterly performance, A Realistic View of Goldman Sachs and Their Latest Quarterly Results

For those who have forgotten the implications of the highly leveraged and opaque financial holdings (the true value of which rests at the mercy of market sentiment) and can turn blind eye to the highly volatile nature of the trading revenues combined with a literal tsunami of regulatory pressure and potential litigious onslaught (all issues which we have repetitively brought up in the past as what appears to be the sole voice of contrarian reason), Goldman Sachs holds  a strong investment proposition. However, if fundamental considerations such  as the company’s solvency, true economic profit (not the accounting earnings you hear preached from your brokerage’s sell side marketing propaganda research reports) and the sustainability of income are to be considered, GS should NOT appear among the preferred lot.

GS swims and sinks with the financial markets and the performance at the trading desks determines not only the profitability, but the survival of the Company. The market’s unfounded exuberance (largely driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals), combined with the collapse or near collapse of 3 of its 4 largest competitors  is enabling GS to generate extraordinarily strong trading results. Trading revenues which account for more than 60% of the revenues not only dictate GS’s profitability but also serves as a cushion to absorb the write-downs on the investments. Thus, Goldman Sachs is amongst the most vulnerable to a major market disruption which can severely dent its earnings stream and expose it substantial equity erosion from investment write-downs. Apart from that,  the recent fraud charges filed against GS not only adds to the risk of incurring huge litigation costs but also add to the risk of tighter regulation and oversight of the sector which can hinder the business activity in the coming years.

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JP Morgan, One of the First Big Banks to Report, Is Setting a Bad Precedent

Thursday, July 15th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

In a nutshell, a cursory glance of JP Morgan’s recent earnings announcement is middling, and that’s putting it optimistically. Revenue and profits have fallen nearly across the board, and the earnings beat is a result of moving capital from reserves to the earnings column. Even this may be suspect, for while credit metric trends appear to be improving (largely a result of massive government stimulus), the core, underlying cause of this malaise looks to be on the move downward again. See As I Made Very Clear In March, US Housing Has a Way to Fall.

I will be coming out with a detailed review of JPM’s results shortly. In the meantime and in between time, refresh your collective memories with past analysis and opinion:

An Unbiased Review of JP Morgan’s Q1 2010 Results Yields Less Roses Than the Maintream Media Presents

An Independent Look into JP Morgan (subscription content free preview!)

The JP Morgan Professional Level Forensic Report (subscription only)

The JP Morgan Retail Level Forensic Report (subscription only)

If a Bubble Bubble Bursts Off Balance Sheet, Will Anyone Be There to Hear It?: Pt 2 – JP Morgan

Is JP Morgan Taking Realistic Marks On Its WaMu Portfolio Purchase? Doubtful!

Anecdotal observations from the JP Morgan Q2-09 conference call

Reggie Middleton on JP Morgan’s Q309 results

Reggie Middleton on JP Morgan’s “Blowout” Q4-09 Results


Negative News Flow In the Investment Banking and Asset Management Space: Profitably Forewarned by BoomBustBlog Research

Friday, July 2nd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

I wanted to share a series of negative news flow relating to the weakness in the core businesses of the investment banks owing to increased volatility in the capital markets over the last few months. This ebb from the sell side trails the opinion of BoomBustBlog research which forwarned of the same very early in the first quarter as well as last quarter of 2009l The news flow points out that the upcoming results of GS, MS and JPM might be disappointing or below expectations – as if we already didn’t know this.

  • According to some of the recent MSM articles, the recent surge in volatility has led to record low activity in the underwriting and M&A activity.

Global M&A value for the first half of 2010 grew 3% to $1.18 trillion, compared with $1.15 trillion a year earlier, according to Dealogic’s figures. But while values were up against the year-earlier period, the $552.7 billion in value generated in the second quarter was down almost 7% compared with the first quarter of the year – WSJ.com.

Wall Street investment banks sold $1.36 trillion of stocks and bonds in the second quarter, down 33% from the second quarter of 2009 and the lowest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Dealogic.

  • Also, the capital markets volatility will have severe implications for the trading revenues of investment banks like GS and MS which derive substantial portions of their revenues from trading activities. Analysts have been downgrading earnings estimates for these banks and GS’s earnings have been particularly slashed since it generates nearly 60-70% of total revenues from trading.

Barclays Capital analyst, Roger Freeman, cut earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) on June 23, 2010. Freeman slashed his second-quarter profit forecast for Goldman by nearly 64% to $1.95 a share from $5.35 a share. Freeman is expecting 40% lower trading revenues in FICC and equity segments in 2Q10 against 1Q10. His estimate for Morgan Stanley dropped 29% to 55 cents a share from 77 cents a share – WSJ.com.

Bank of America analyst, Guy Moszkowski, also slashed earnings estimates for GS and MS. He revised GS’ 2Q10 earnings estimates to $1.76 per share, 51% lower than the previous estimate of $3.57. The new estimates reflect a 45% decline in equity trading revenue and 40% drop in fixed-income trading revenue compared with the first quarter. MS’s 2Q10 EPS estimate was cut 35%, to 58 cents a share from 89 cents. The estimate on JPMorgan Chase & Co. was trimmed to 70 cents a share from 77 cents, and Citigroup Inc. was lowered to 2 cents a share from 4 cents – Businessweek.

I would also like to add that the recent volatility and market decline has also impacted the AUM of asset managers and there has been downward price revision by analysts. The assets under management of BEN declined 5% (m-o-m) in May, 2010 and the June figures are not yet out. Consequently, the target price estimates have been lowered by many analysts. In June, FBR Capital lowered its target for BEN to $105 from $118 and Barclays capital lowered its target for BEN to $125 from $133. Analyst at Goldman Sachs have also made significant downward revisions in this sector.


Now, the news flow in light of applied BoomBustBlog research:

The Asset Manager Trade is Printing Money Almost as Fast as Ben Bernanke 

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The Conundrum of Commercial Real Estate Stocks: In a CRE “Near Depression”, Why Are REIT Shares Still So High and Which Ones to Short?

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Many people have asked me how SRS and REITs share prices can defy gravity the way they have given the abysmal state of  commercial real estate (CRE). Well my opinion is that the equity and the debt markets have allowed agent and principal manipulation to the extent that it materially distorts and interferes with the market pricing mechanism. Put more simply, its the result of widespread fraud and shenanigans – subprime 2.0, just with bigger numbers! If you have a trust or a company that owns a basket of X assets on a 50% leveraged basis, and those assets have decreased 40% in value, one should expect a requisite 80% drop in the equity value of said trust or company. Granted, this is an oversimplification, but the premise is solid. Instead, we have companies whose portfolios have fallen over 40% and whose share prices have increased over 100% from the market lows – heading into what is unmistakeably a worse macro environment and outlook in terms of interest rates, employment and economic activity.

This is a relatively long post, and purposely so, for its goal is to illustrate why REIT prices are defying gravity and what it will take to bring them back down to earth (a significant fall), as well as when. If you are the impatient type, or feel you have read this material already, you can jump straight to the bottom to access our freshly released REIT short list scan finalists for paid subscribers.

Make no mistake about the state of CRE, it is in bad shape. For those of you who react to graphs and spreadsheets, reference Reggie Middleton’s CRE 2010 Overview CRE 2010 Overview 2009-12-15 02:39:04 2.72 Mb. Tuesday, December 15th, 2009. Those of you who like pretty pictures, unmistakeably grounded in reality, reference my visual tour of downtown Manhattan to Downtown Brooklyn from last year – “Who are ya gonna believe, the pundits or your lying eyes?” (for pictures) and “Who are you going to believe, the pundits or your lying eyes, part 2″ (for numbers and a very shaky video. It is not just the big city urban areas either. Here is an anecdotal snapshot of CRE business parks in Washington state, contributed by a BoomBustBlog reader:

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The Brown Stinky Stuff is Splattering Off the Fan Blades and Landing on That Shiny New Building on the West Side Highway.

Thursday, June 10th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

From Bloomberg.com:

The Hudson Mezzanine 2006-1 CDO contained credit default swaps that referenced $2 billion in subprime, BBB-rated residential mortgage-backed securities, according to the documents released by Levin’s committee. While Goldman Sachs selected the assets in the deal, the firm was also the only investor buying credit protection on the entire transaction, the documents show.

Goldman Sachs created and sold the Hudson CDO in late 2006, near the time documents released by Levin show senior executives wanted to reduce the firm’s exposure to subprime mortgages.

“The CDO imploded within two years. Your clients lost; Goldman profited,” Levin said in an April 27 hearing during which he questioned Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein about the Hudson deal and other CDOs. “To go out and sell these securities to people and then bet against those same securities, it seems to me, is a fundamental conflict of interest and is — raises a real ethical issue.”

Blankfein responded that “we are one of the largest client franchises in market-making in these kinds of activities we’re talking about” and that “they know our activities, and they understand what market-making is.”

While Goldman Sachs was short on the Hudson Mezzanine CDO, meaning it stood to gain from a collapse because of the credit protection it had purchased, a marketing document for the deal released by Levin’s committee states that “Goldman Sachs has aligned incentives with the Hudson program.”

In April I told a reporter from Crain’s NY that Goldman’s overvaluation is totally overlooked by the market and the trend followers (see side bar for the full article), and guess what happened just a few days later… Yeah, reality caught up with them!

Earlier this month, Mr. Middleton took a break from blogging to tend to his yacht. Cruising the Hudson River, as the headquarters of Wall Street’s big

Crain’s New York

“His work is so detailed, so accurate, it’s among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton’s research

For more of my opinion as expressed through the mainstream media, click here.

banks sparkled brightly, he warned of dark times. He pointed at Goldman Sachs’ huge new tower and proclaimed the bank “overvalued.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch is worse: “They bought Countrywide and some of the biggest trash out there.” He hasn’t shorted banks’ stocks lately, but plans “to go after them again” in the near future. Mr. Middleton likens himself to the character in the movie The Sixth Sense, who sees things no one else can. “I see dead countries, companies, municipalities,” he says. “They are dead and flying high in pricing.”

I can actually extend the Bloomberg article above for quite a while

When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs??? Tuesday, 16 March 2010

I have warned my readers about following myths and legends versus reality and facts several times in the past, particularly as it applies to Goldman Sachs and what I have coined “Name Brand Investing”. Very recent developments from Senator Kaufman of Delaware will be putting the spit-shined patina of Wall Street’s most powerful bank to the test. Here is a link to the speech that the esteemed Senator from Delaware (yes, the most corporate friendly state in this country). A few excerpts to liven up your morning…

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Developing Implications on Loan Accounting Law: Mark to Market, Mark to Model, or Mark to Market Crash?

Saturday, June 5th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Relevant commentary from BoomBustBlog and sources throughout the Web on the accounting change that added 80% to the S&P since March 2009!!!

Warning Shots from the IASB: FT

  • The IASB came under fire in the fall/winter of 2009 in regards to mark to market rules
  • Banks wanted continued relaxation of valuing models in order to “smooth out volatility swings in asset prices”
  • IASB and FASB plan to converge on mark to market ruling by 2011, both have stated a desire for more transparent financial statements, but have been politically compromised by bankers and commercial lenders

FASB Plan Would Force Banks to Report Loan Fair Value: BusinessWeek

  • FASB is seeking to approve a proposal that would force banks to mark loans at market value by 2013, potentially having billions of dollars at risk for writedowns
  • In April 2009, FASB gave significant leeway to banks in regards to pricing and modeling loan values, banking consultants are very opposed to a reversal of the measures
  • Pension obligations and leases will be exempt from new measures

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The Equity Markets Are Ignoring Screams of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) in the European Money and Credit Markets: Enter Lehman Fiasco v2.0!!!

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

For those who have been following me in the Asset Securitization and Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series this may be old news, but let’s go through the exercise anyway. It looks as if we are back to those non-sense games being played by those that manipulate the market. Taking a look at Bloomberg.com’s front page, you’ll see “Stocks, U.S. Futures Rally on Economic Outlook; Yen Weakens, Bonds Decline” (hey, good times are here again) followed directly by Banks Deposit Record $394 Billion With ECB, Avoiding Loans to One Another”(hey, isn’t this the exact same environment wherein Bear Stearns, then Lehman Brothers collapsed leading the Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to proclaim the end of the financial world was coming?). Then there’s “Covered Bond Sales Surge; Transocean Tumbles: Credit Markets“: Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks.

Okay, let’s take this by the numbers….

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