Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:1263 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:1462 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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It's the Real Estate Crash That I Warned…

20-03-2017 Hits:1949 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

It's the Real Estate Crash That I Warned You About (again)

I've issued several warnings late last year warning of the real estate bubble peaking and popping. I feel I'm especially qualified to do such since I quite accurately called the...

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When It Comes Time To Show and Prove, Eq…

20-03-2017 Hits:1677 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

When It Comes Time To Show and Prove, Equity Markets May Drop Hard

The markets have gotten euphoric since the Trump election, apparently because someone believed what he was selling. Take a look at the broad market jump (powered greatly by the bank...

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So, Brexit Is Now Almost Official. Is Th…

20-03-2017 Hits:831 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Note: All downloadable legacy content is for subscribers only. We currently have a sale for $11 per month for basic access. Professional subscribers are now evevated to have direct access...

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In Less Than Two Weeks, Another Bitcoin …

17-03-2017 Hits:2461 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

In Less Than Two Weeks, Another Bitcoin ETF Faces SEC Deadline - It's Denial Is NOT A Bearish Event

LedgerX's "SOLIDX BITCOIN TRUST" has an approval deadline this March 30th, 2017.If it is approved, Bitcoin is due for one hell of a bump, but...  

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The Fed Raises Rates While Still Baby Fe…

17-03-2017 Hits:2276 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Fed Raises Rates While Still Baby Feeding the MBS Market With Billions in Monthly Purchases

The Fed has raised rates, officially making real what was mere signaling of the end of its expansionary era... Or is it? You see, from a practical perspective, QE is...

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A Bitcoin ETF or Similar Regulated Insti…

16-03-2017 Hits:2836 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

A Bitcoin ETF or Similar Regulated Institutional Vehicle is a Forgone Conclusion - What Happens Next?

Someone with over 53 years on Wall Street sent me this article from Lex of the Financial Times...

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Why the Winelvoss Bitcoin ETF Was Reject…

13-03-2017 Hits:3648 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Why the Winelvoss Bitcoin ETF Was Rejected and How to Create a Regulated Vehicle That Passes Muster

 The Winkelvoss ETF application was rejected by the SEC, and bitcoin dropped about 20% in price. I repetitively warned those that followed me that a very low risk buying opportunity...

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Trump Calls Obama's Policies On Russia W…

10-03-2017 Hits:3309 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

 Donald Trump's recent Tweet discusses how Russia has gotten stronger at the behest of President Obama.   For eight years Russia "ran over" President Obama, got stronger and stronger, picked-off Crimea and...

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SNAP's Greed Derived Self-Inflicted Woun…

08-03-2017 Hits:4371 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

SNAP's Greed Derived Self-Inflicted Wounds Continue to Manifest

The day before the SNAP IPO, I penned "Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley Pull Off the Heist of the Decade, Bends Over Those Who Don't Read BoomBustBlog". Despite being rather...

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Bitcoin Is Reaching the Point of No Retu…

08-03-2017 Hits:4113 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin Is Reaching the Point of No Return - Buy Side Should Take Note

Many bitcoin aficionados are waiting with baited breath as the SEC is to announce by this Friday whether they will approve the first registered bitcoin ETF. This is not the...

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I have decided to keep pumping as much of my preliminary research as possible to the blog for free. Please read and accept the disclaimer below. In addition to the disclaimer, I want to add that this blog is not about investment advice, and I do not offer investment advice to the public. This blog is a digital diary of my thoughts, musings and opinions of boom-bust cycles and my own investment forays throughout these cycles. I have decided to offer some of my research to foster discussion, debate, and further analysis. Please do not request investment advice from me on the blog.

 

I have run into the same problem as most other investors (both individual and institutional) – the lack of credible, unbiased quality research. I have two teams of highly qualified analysts working for me full time, and they adhere to my outside of the box approach to fundamental analysis and research. Thus, the stuff that you see here will differ significantly from what you see from the usual suspects. My research is funded solely by me and my investment management vehicles, with no outside or third party interests, and is used to guide my investments and that of my private investment funds (as well as provide fodder for this blog), some of which may be open to qualified purchasers in the future. If you follow my blog, much of my research runs contrary to most of the sell side institutions and ratings agencies. I scream “danger!” in this “bust” way before they do, and will probably yell “opportunity” in the next boom cycle considerably before them as well. Consider it the contrarian wiki of buy side research. The research in this blog represents many man months of work PER MONTH. Any institutional players who are interested in a more formal, timely and complete version of my research and analyses should Email Me directly (examples: Ryland summary and Ambac loss tail and sensitivity analysis model). For the sake of comparison to sell side research from the big banks or newsletters, below is a description of the opinions expressed in this blog, displayed as if a short (or long, depending on boom or bust times, we are in a bust now so short is the order of the day) position was taken in a typical retail brokerage account the trading day after the article was posted. My style is that of the medium to long term horizon investor, alas, the blog has only been up and running for a few months.

 

Assumptions:

·         Margin Maintenance: 50%

·         Dividends not taken into consideration (negligible difference in outcome)            

·         Initial margin: 50.00%

·         Maintenance margin: 30.00%

·         Interest Rate on Margin Loan: 5.00%

·         Commissions: $0.75

·         Short position assumed via parameters above   

·         Click the date to reference the blog post that the companies/securities were first mentioned in. This is just a sampling of a few articles for the sake of illustration. Considerable opinion and research has been subsequently posted.   

·         Date Blog Began: 9/1/2007

·         Date of Analysis: 12/8/2007

·         Average Holding Period: 3.12 months (basically, slightly less than the inception of the blog)

 

The Boom, Bust & Bling Blog's opinions would have returned 52.47% since inception during this real asset and credit bust, as compared to 3.52% for the S&P, 4.23% for the Nasdaq, 2.77% for the Dow Composite, and -.93% for the Russell 1000.

 

Average Return

Average profit on $1000 at inception of this Blog

If 25% of the 1st $1000 invested was donated back to the cause

52.47%

$                  524.67

$              131.17

 

Blog post date

Stocks opined

Price as of Blog Date or following trading day

Price as of 12/8/2007

% change

Assumed Holding Period in Months

Holding Period Return

Investment

Return

1-Sep-07

len

$28.37

$18.32

(35.42%)

            3.23

67.82%

$1,000.00

$678.18

 

hov

$12.60

$9.39

(25.48%)

            3.23

49.63%

$1,000.00

$496.27

 

phm

$16.91

$11.52

(31.87%)

            3.23

62.42%

$1,000.00

$624.24

 

ctx

$29.08

$25.81

(11.24%)

            3.23

21.16%

$1,000.00

$211.65

 

dhom

$2.08

$0.60

(71.15%)

            3.23

140.98%

$1,000.00

$1,409.83

1-Sep-07

bzh

$11.19

$10.06

(10.10%)

            3.23

18.87%

$1,000.00

$188.72

 

rdn

$18.11

$11.78

(34.95%)

            3.23

68.58%

$1,000.00

$685.81

 

mtg

$30.34

$26.95

(11.17%)

            3.23

21.02%

$1,000.00

$210.22

1-Sep-07

dhi

$15.23

$13.86

(9.00%)

            3.23

16.67%

$1,000.00

$166.66

 

tol

$21.84

$22.68

3.85%

            3.23

(9.02%)

$1,000.00

($90.17)

 

bsc

$113.84

$100.94

(11.33%)

            3.23

21.34%

$1,000.00

$213.38

 

cfc

$19.59

$11.54

(41.09%)

            3.23

80.86%

$1,000.00

$808.60

3-Sep-07

mbi

$61.58

$30.00

(51.28%)

            3.17

101.24%

$1,000.00

$1,012.41

 

abk

$64.15

$26.84

(58.16%)

           3.17

115.00%

$1,000.00

$1,149.96

8-Sep-07

wm

$34.06

$19.03

(44.13%)

            3.03

86.93%

$1,000.00

$869.31

16-Oct-07

ryl

$23.96

$26.68

11.35%

            1.77

(24.03%)

$1,000.00

($240.30)

         
     

Average

Average

Total

Total

     

            3.12

52.47%

$16,000.00

$8,394.76

$16000 invested as of Sept. 1st would be $24394.76 as of December 8th

     

 

Disclaimer:

Reggie Middleton, LLC’s analysis and conclusions in this presentation and throughout this blog are based on publicly available information. Reggie Middleton, LLC recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the Companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these Companies to disagree with Reggie Middleton LLC’s conclusions. The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Companies. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Reggie Middleton, LLC concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Vehicles managed by Reggie Middleton, LLC and its affiliates own investments that are bearish on many companies mentioned. These investments may include credit-default swaps, equity put options and short sales of common stock. Reggie Middleton, LLC manages vehicles that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public and private securities. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Reggie Middleton, LLC to change its position regarding the Companies and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the Companies.