Bitcoin Investment Risk vs Reward Calcul…

23-02-2017 Hits:637 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin Investment Risk vs Reward Calculator to Compare BTC to EUR, GBP, Gold & Stocks

After reading what is essentially Fake News about Bitcoin from Financial Times, London Business School and Credit Suisse, I have created an easy to understand metric that allows anyone to compare the risks...

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It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse an…

22-02-2017 Hits:889 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance...

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HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses o…

21-02-2017 Hits:466 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses of the Year, We Warned Quite Thoroughly in September

Our HSBC research report released September of 2016 has proven to be 110% correct. This is the first sentence of our report: HSBC Common Equity Returns: Notwithstanding a possible boost from...

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Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management…

19-02-2017 Hits:836 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management When Dealing With Digital Assets: How to Minimize Risk of Loss

This is a video on the topic of the qualities of Bitcoin blockchain's censorship-proof attributes and how they apply in the world we live in today. It is imperative that you...

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How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in B…

16-02-2017 Hits:1449 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in Bitcoin Digital Assets - Step by Step, Part 1

I will teach novices and experts alike how to fit Bitcoin into an investment portfolio safely and with the optimum risk-adjusted potential - along with step-by-step guides, instructions and tutorials. This...

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Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's …

16-02-2017 Hits:592 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's Troubled Banks... Again! Exactly As We Warned Last Year

I've been warning about Italy's troubled banks since 2010, and last year I pushed two very detailed reports about what was essentially Italy's Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Italy is a...

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T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon'…

15-02-2017 Hits:650 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon's Network Advantages At A Lower Price Point - Uh Oh!

T-Mobile reported their Q4 2016 results yesterday, and guess what?

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Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber …

13-02-2017 Hits:666 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber $200 Million in 45 Days, Other Companies Feel It Too

Uber's CEO perceived association with Donald Trump (sitting on his tech advisory panel) has caused a viral #DelteUber campaign, resulting in over 200,000 Uber accounts deleted in 45 days. Videos of the...

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Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sp…

13-02-2017 Hits:1410 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sprint Drops Prices Through Floor: The Deadbeat Carriers are Beating Themselves To Death

Update: T-Mobile responds to Sprint & Verizon price cuts but adding additional features to its fixed rate plan. Competition continues to benefit the consumer, but net margins will be/are hovering...

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Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Tru…

10-02-2017 Hits:751 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Trump Administration, Albeit Too Late As Usual

After my many, many warnings about Donald Trump and his administration (I'll list those a little later)... It's official, Fitch has actually warned that the Trump administration is detrimental to...

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Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client…

09-02-2017 Hits:924 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client Withdrawals. I Warned You About Heteronomous Wallets!

Bitcoin.com reports "Chinese Exchanges Suspend Withdrawals for One Month": The two largest Chinese Bitcoin exchanges have suspended Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals for one month. The news follows China’s central bank...

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Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as L…

09-02-2017 Hits:968 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as Legal Tender Accelerate Cryptocurrency Mainstream Adoption?

It’s being reported by Sputnik News and other sources that Japan has declared Bitcoin to be legal tender. Unfortunately, I have not been able to quickly confirm this through Japanese...

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I have decided to keep pumping as much of my preliminary research as possible to the blog for free. Please read and accept the disclaimer below. In addition to the disclaimer, I want to add that this blog is not about investment advice, and I do not offer investment advice to the public. This blog is a digital diary of my thoughts, musings and opinions of boom-bust cycles and my own investment forays throughout these cycles. I have decided to offer some of my research to foster discussion, debate, and further analysis. Please do not request investment advice from me on the blog.

 

I have run into the same problem as most other investors (both individual and institutional) – the lack of credible, unbiased quality research. I have two teams of highly qualified analysts working for me full time, and they adhere to my outside of the box approach to fundamental analysis and research. Thus, the stuff that you see here will differ significantly from what you see from the usual suspects. My research is funded solely by me and my investment management vehicles, with no outside or third party interests, and is used to guide my investments and that of my private investment funds (as well as provide fodder for this blog), some of which may be open to qualified purchasers in the future. If you follow my blog, much of my research runs contrary to most of the sell side institutions and ratings agencies. I scream “danger!” in this “bust” way before they do, and will probably yell “opportunity” in the next boom cycle considerably before them as well. Consider it the contrarian wiki of buy side research. The research in this blog represents many man months of work PER MONTH. Any institutional players who are interested in a more formal, timely and complete version of my research and analyses should Email Me directly (examples: Ryland summary and Ambac loss tail and sensitivity analysis model). For the sake of comparison to sell side research from the big banks or newsletters, below is a description of the opinions expressed in this blog, displayed as if a short (or long, depending on boom or bust times, we are in a bust now so short is the order of the day) position was taken in a typical retail brokerage account the trading day after the article was posted. My style is that of the medium to long term horizon investor, alas, the blog has only been up and running for a few months.

 

Assumptions:

·         Margin Maintenance: 50%

·         Dividends not taken into consideration (negligible difference in outcome)            

·         Initial margin: 50.00%

·         Maintenance margin: 30.00%

·         Interest Rate on Margin Loan: 5.00%

·         Commissions: $0.75

·         Short position assumed via parameters above   

·         Click the date to reference the blog post that the companies/securities were first mentioned in. This is just a sampling of a few articles for the sake of illustration. Considerable opinion and research has been subsequently posted.   

·         Date Blog Began: 9/1/2007

·         Date of Analysis: 12/8/2007

·         Average Holding Period: 3.12 months (basically, slightly less than the inception of the blog)

 

The Boom, Bust & Bling Blog's opinions would have returned 52.47% since inception during this real asset and credit bust, as compared to 3.52% for the S&P, 4.23% for the Nasdaq, 2.77% for the Dow Composite, and -.93% for the Russell 1000.

 

Average Return

Average profit on $1000 at inception of this Blog

If 25% of the 1st $1000 invested was donated back to the cause

52.47%

$                  524.67

$              131.17

 

Blog post date

Stocks opined

Price as of Blog Date or following trading day

Price as of 12/8/2007

% change

Assumed Holding Period in Months

Holding Period Return

Investment

Return

1-Sep-07

len

$28.37

$18.32

(35.42%)

            3.23

67.82%

$1,000.00

$678.18

 

hov

$12.60

$9.39

(25.48%)

            3.23

49.63%

$1,000.00

$496.27

 

phm

$16.91

$11.52

(31.87%)

            3.23

62.42%

$1,000.00

$624.24

 

ctx

$29.08

$25.81

(11.24%)

            3.23

21.16%

$1,000.00

$211.65

 

dhom

$2.08

$0.60

(71.15%)

            3.23

140.98%

$1,000.00

$1,409.83

1-Sep-07

bzh

$11.19

$10.06

(10.10%)

            3.23

18.87%

$1,000.00

$188.72

 

rdn

$18.11

$11.78

(34.95%)

            3.23

68.58%

$1,000.00

$685.81

 

mtg

$30.34

$26.95

(11.17%)

            3.23

21.02%

$1,000.00

$210.22

1-Sep-07

dhi

$15.23

$13.86

(9.00%)

            3.23

16.67%

$1,000.00

$166.66

 

tol

$21.84

$22.68

3.85%

            3.23

(9.02%)

$1,000.00

($90.17)

 

bsc

$113.84

$100.94

(11.33%)

            3.23

21.34%

$1,000.00

$213.38

 

cfc

$19.59

$11.54

(41.09%)

            3.23

80.86%

$1,000.00

$808.60

3-Sep-07

mbi

$61.58

$30.00

(51.28%)

            3.17

101.24%

$1,000.00

$1,012.41

 

abk

$64.15

$26.84

(58.16%)

           3.17

115.00%

$1,000.00

$1,149.96

8-Sep-07

wm

$34.06

$19.03

(44.13%)

            3.03

86.93%

$1,000.00

$869.31

16-Oct-07

ryl

$23.96

$26.68

11.35%

            1.77

(24.03%)

$1,000.00

($240.30)

         
     

Average

Average

Total

Total

     

            3.12

52.47%

$16,000.00

$8,394.76

$16000 invested as of Sept. 1st would be $24394.76 as of December 8th

     

 

Disclaimer:

Reggie Middleton, LLC’s analysis and conclusions in this presentation and throughout this blog are based on publicly available information. Reggie Middleton, LLC recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the Companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these Companies to disagree with Reggie Middleton LLC’s conclusions. The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Companies. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Reggie Middleton, LLC concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Vehicles managed by Reggie Middleton, LLC and its affiliates own investments that are bearish on many companies mentioned. These investments may include credit-default swaps, equity put options and short sales of common stock. Reggie Middleton, LLC manages vehicles that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public and private securities. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Reggie Middleton, LLC to change its position regarding the Companies and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the Companies.