I received a few emails expressing concern about my lack of activity on the board. I am on vacation with the family and have limited web access and time (so says the boss).

I will be putting up some macro stuff on China, HSBC, and GGP shortly (or after I get back from vacation). I may also start unveiling some tidbits of the next step in my investment thesis.

I traveled from Fire Island to the Manhattan to meet with some BoomBustBloggers and had a very good time. Pics will be post along with the analyses in a day or tow.


I cannot email AOL or Comcast subscribers. My mailsd get bounced back, so please keep that in mind when emailing me.

Published in BoomBustBlog
Thursday, 10 July 2008 01:00

An inspiring email from a reader

Quite a few readers have emailed me with similar stories. I thought I would post this one, with permission, of course.

I know that I've said thanks. I'll say it more before its over, no doubt.

Since Jan 16, 2008....we have doubled my initial investment while keeping over 50% in cash. Thats short term - pay taxes on it and I'm sittin on half that much paper gain.

I don't know much but I can read. That was achived usin what I've come to call 'sell and wait'.

About 3 months in I noticed I was 'early' often. I took a nore relaxed approach and things got easier.

I 'missed' bear btw so this wasn't a 1 shot deal.

I've learned and hopefully will be more adept as time goes on.

My major drawback is I take too many naps. :-)

Published in BoomBustBlog
Thursday, 19 June 2008 01:00

Blogger will work for food





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As I have mentioned before, I am looking
for avenues to syndicate the content of my blog. I know I am biased, but I
think this blog delivers top notch, timely and unique content. It being my
blog, I am probably not the most objective judge… Many of you came to this blog
from Seeking Alpha,
where I was a contributor. It appears as if I have done something to piss them
off, for they have not ran any articles lately and have not returned my emails.
I’m pretty sure the reason is my complaining about the changing of the content
of my articles, something that I cannot tolerate. The editors that I dealt with
were always very professional and polite though, and I would like to make that
clear. Nevertheless, being forced to gather my own eyeballs may have been the
best thing that has happened to this blog. Let me tell you why…

The possible offense (I am not quite
sure why I am not getting return emails or articles ran) probably came from my
linking to a very interesting discussion on Seeking Alpha’s business model,
editorial practices (of which I complained in the actual linking), and
blogonomics in general. You can read my comment here
(you may have to scroll up a bit to see it). The actual discourse that I linked
to is here,
and stems from a little beef that Barry Ritholz, the popular blogger, analysts
and CNBC contributor had with SA over some of the exact same issued that I had.
I recommend those interested in blogonomics give it a glance. Keep in mind that

(being the stuck up, conceited bastard that I am) truly believe that a steady
stream of buy side quality, forensic research is a rarity on the web, hence I
often lapse into a state of actually believing this blog’s content has some
value. The argument made by SA’s founder about the blogger’s incremental effort
in content redistribution is a little murky, but I will get into that at a late
time. My content easily costs me into the six digits to produce, thus it is not
cheap. Although there are some very good blogs out there, especially in the economics
research and opinion space, ex. Ritholz’s is one, as well as Calculated Risk
and Mish (see my blog
), I think I am the only one that performs thorough buy-side forensic analysis
from a macro investor’s perspective - at least the only one that does it for

Seeking Alpha does seem to expose
certain popular writers with a significant amount of exposure, and their coup d’etat
and primary value driver is the deal that they inked with Yahoo Finance to have
their blog’s content carried on Yahoo’s ticker news feeds, which are very heavily
used. Now, being the conceited bastard that I am, I wondered, “If they don’t
want my stuff, and I think my stuff is worth wanting, why don’t I just move to
have my stuff carried directly by the major news feeds and outlets?”. Damn,
could you imagine if Yahoo, Reuters or Bloomberg carried analysis as hard hitting,
thorough and extensive as “
and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage
house” on their newswires?

``There's nothing you can glean from
them that's going to make you any money,'' said Jack
, who oversees $62 billion as chief investment officer at Harris
Private Bank in Chicago. ``Right now `Wall Street' and `unique research' is an
oxymoron. Unless they're able to do some kind of very unique research, I don't
see any of them coming up with an edge.''

I’m thinking that this could literally
transform financial news and reporting, as well as give the traditional rags
the much needed shot in the arm they’ve been craving every since the Web
started devouring their margins and their business models. Now, how do I get
these guys’ attention? Well, I’ve put together a little compilation of popular
(but far from complete) articles, posts and analyses from the blog, and have
date stamped them along with the company that they are referencing. I am not
going to publish performance figures, but you guys (and girls) can figure it
out for yourselves. The factor for determining the results of a short sale is
about -1.9x the change in price. If any of you know one of the major media
publications with a finance interest, use the mail or recommend functions of
the blog to forward them a copy of this article. Of course, I would appreciate any
feedback or comments that my readers have as well.

Published in BoomBustBlog

This was just after 5 and a half months on the
new blog. I just would like to thank my readers for you support. I am
working on ventures that will spread the reach of the blog even
farther, hopefully rivalling the traffic of Forbes.com.

Could you imagine no-nonsense, non-corporate
pandering, hard hitting research hitting 120,000 people a day - for
free. It may just change the way Wall Street operates!

To help do your part:

  1. Use the "Invite Others" tool, which allows you to invite people to the blog directly from your address books.
  2. Create your own web site within the BoomBustBlog and use it to share ideas and files with others.
  3. Use
    the social bookmarking links (Digg This, Reddit, etc.) and "email this"
    links at the end of each article to let others know the site has
    interesting content.
  4. Join, participate in, and create investment and finance groups .
  5. Create social "connections" with others through their profiles. It's easy and allows you to share ideas efficiently.
  6. Participate in the comments sections and the discussion forums.
  7. Take the site survery .
  8. Generally, just tell your friends, family and co-workers.

If the site generates enough traffic to support itself, I will be able
to put a full time analyst on it which would significantly increase the
level of content that I produce through the blog.

Thanks again for your support.

Reggie Middleton

Published in BoomBustBlog
Monday, 02 June 2008 01:00

Where are the experts? Really?

I thought I would post this comment for more to see. It runs well with my pundit post a few months back.

Outstanding work on the Doo-Doo posts! The other day somebody posted a link to a Dick Bove article where he recommended some regional banks. Since most of what Bove recommended were on the Doo-Doo list, I put these positions on paper Friday morning. If one were to take Bove's recommendations to buy vs my personal decision to short based on what I read here, Bove would be down $2900 vs an upside of $200+ on the short side. I'll put it in a spreadsheet and send it to you. The list is buying or shorting the stock as well as purchasing calls and puts. It just depends on which side of the trade you want.
The Doo-Doo side of the trade based upon factual data provided by you and this site or the Buy-Buy (should be by-by) side of the trade by Bove.
Bove did have one bright moment in a Bloomberg article today. It's the article titled with: +2 + -2 = 4. A GREAT article to read, too. Bove describes "Statement 159" and how it affects company financial statements. Let's give the bozo a pat on the back for actually doing his main job as an analyst for once. Oh, if it was not already known, Bove's second job is..... well, somebody on NYSE floor should just yell: "Hey, Cool-Aid" and he'll come crashing through the wall looking like the Cool-Aid character from the adds years back (just dated myself). I'm sure many other "trusted" figures would come running in too. Wall Street, The Media, Paulson, etc. - Hopefully the public is starting to see that the Cool-Aid has been flowing for a long time.
What I think is funny (it's actually pretty sad) is that all of a sudden, little stories of what you've been posting since LAST YEAR are starting to trickle out. The media makes it sound as if it's a recently broken story!
Meredith Whitney will have the last laugh on those who piled on her warning comments as "overblown". There are a few trying to do the right thing!
I'm glad I bought put positions in WB last week! I'm sure everyone will see the Wachovia CEO news today. You know, it's interesting seeing the amount of media stories that came out since the market close last Friday. Hhmmmmmmmmm??????? I wonder if it has to do with the 2nd Quarter closing? They couldn't have been hiding the balance sheet horrors in order to do some stock performance window dressing? No, that would be wrong since "the worst is over", right? Yea.... have a little more Cool-Aid America.

Thanks for your hard work in doing the right thing with this blog. We hear all these guest speakers on the financial shows stating: "the worst is over", "now is the time to buy financial companies." If they've done half as much homework as you have, they'd be saying the opposite!

Looking forward to the next info you have to share.


My reply:

I loved that commercial. I used to love Kool Aid, too! smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif
Since it may not be appropriate for me to do it, you should go to my personal page
and download the pundit tool. Fill it out with all of the new and old
stocks reviewed on this blog along with the stock prices on the date
blogged. Then apply today's pricing. You will see that I don't have a
lot in common with analysts and pundits you see on CNBC, et. al.

As for Bove's article today, we hashed that out months ago in the discussion forums with StockenFraud and Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update

the updated model or send it to me and I will post it on your behalf.
Let's see how the pundits really perform if you were to put some money
behind their words.

You can find the Pundit tool here The Pundit Tool
(2099k) on my personal files page.
All registered users can easily created pages such as these for
themselves. Just go into the "My Website" menu in the upper left hand
corner of the site.

Published in BoomBustBlog

I came across an interesting story in alacroblog.com, and am including an excerpt. I would like to hear your feedback:

Henry Blodget of Silicon Alley Insider, Barry Ritholtz of FusionIQ, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor and Jonathan Glick of Gerson Lehrman Group were on a Money:Tech panel chaired by Paul Kedrosky called Blogs, Analysts and the Future of Equity Research. Part of the discussion was about the value of research being largely related to how much trust a reader will place in a writer. Years ago it was believed you could only trust the recommendations of an analyst employed by a well-known sell-side shop. Now a blogger can established a track record as a knowledgeable analyst and can develop trust and an audience. And Gerson Lehrman will connect a trusted blogger, who has a specific area of expertise, with a hedge fund or private equity investor for private consultation.

Published in BoomBustBlog
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