I compared the 62 companies' opinions that I have covered in the blog with that of the big Wall Street name brands' analyst buy/sell recommendations. Needless, to say, the results are not even close. I have started the blog in September of 2007, and have been patently negative every day since. Both the blog research and my proprietary trading account have been short, save for one long call - Bear Stearns after going short from the 130's to the JP Morgan announcement to buy the company for two or three dollars per share. I knew this to be unlikely to go through, and announced that strategic calls were totally underpriced. We all know how that story ended.
Since nearly all of my positions were short, I am using a margin account to quantify the blog's research, which I feel is most realistic since you can't short in a cash account.
| Cash | Margin account (most realistic, since shorts often recommended) | |
| Reggie's Blog Research returns | 42.4% | 81.6% |
| Citi | -30.6% | |
| GS | -33.0% | |
| MS | -22.4% | |
| JPM | -40.2% |
Just to be as conservative a possible, I included cash comparisons as well. Same story, different numbers.
Below is a table of the 62 stocks that I covered in the blog, with a direct comparison with the guidance of the big boys, stock by stock. For those who want even more proof and meant, I have included all of the numbers and calculations that went into this via pdf download (57 pages of stuff). This document is available to download for free, without registration - pdf Blog vs. Broker Analysis - supplementary material (1.09 MB 2008-10-24 14:43:34) .
Adobe Reader version9 or higher required.
I literally expect every brokerage and wealth management client of all of these banks to buy a subscription to this blog. All I ask is,
"Who has issued the best
|
||||||||
|
|
BoomBustBlog's Holding period return (short, margin account) |
Reggie's |
Brokers |
|||||
|
Stock |
1 month |
3 months |
Since invested |
Citibank |
Goldman Sachs |
JP Morgan |
Morgan Stanley |
|
|
len |
143.4% |
52.0% |
36.0% |
74.7% |
-37.9% |
69.5% |
-93.7% |
|
|
hov |
134.4% |
53.8% |
47.3% |
70.2% |
-65.2% |
-62.4% |
|
|
|
phm |
98.4% |
46.1% |
26.5% |
52.2% |
-35.0% |
-44.6% |
-44.2% |
|
|
ctx |
131.8% |
43.5% |
30.6% |
68.9% |
-39.2% |
-65.1% |
63.2% |
|
|
dhom |
130.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
68.3% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
bzh |
150.3% |
58.2% |
50.3% |
78.1% |
-70.9% |
80.0% |
|
|
|
rdn |
164.5% |
44.7% |
-32.0% |
85.2% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
mtg |
176.2% |
65.4% |
50.8% |
91.1% |
-65.4% |
|
||
|
dhi |
127.5% |
61.1% |
52.5% |
66.7% |
98.7% |
-61.4% |
-65.4% |
|
|
tol |
25.1% |
24.9% |
4.3% |
15.5% |
-10.6% |
-9.3% |
-11.7% |
|
|
bsc |
182.7% |
33.2% |
94.3% |
No coverage |
|
|||
|
cfc |
151.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
78.5% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
mbi |
172.4% |
45.6% |
-24.0% |
89.1% |
37.4% |
-79.6% |
|
|
|
abk |
187.3% |
26.8% |
-0.9% |
96.6% |
4.7% |
-90.9% |
|
|
|
wm |
193.7% |
99.8% |
99.5% |
|
||||
|
ryl |
62.6% |
37.3% |
26.0% |
33.8% |
-26.5% |
-28.3% |
-56.1% |
|
|
ms |
123.6% |
27.1% |
51.5% |
63.9% |
-71.2% |
-70.1% |
-70.6% |
|
|
ggp |
179.2% |
82.3% |
90.4% |
91.7% |
56.5% |
-94.6% |
-93.7% |
|
|
bac |
78.9% |
30.5% |
24.9% |
41.4% |
-52.9% |
-29.5% |
-54.6% |
-55.5% |
|
kbh |
84.4% |
34.9% |
20.8% |
44.1% |
-25.4% |
-47.3% |
-70.5% |
|
|
lehmq |
196.3% |
99.8% |
-99.9% |
|
||||
|
ago |
103.8% |
42.8% |
10.4% |
53.8% |
0.0% |
-57.8% |
-46.0% |
|
|
key |
109.1% |
24.0% |
10.0% |
56.3% |
-69.9% |
-59.8% |
47.7% |
|
|
ffhs |
58.5% |
10.8% |
10.1% |
31.0% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
c |
90.6% |
30.9% |
31.2% |
47.0% |
6.6% |
-63.5% |
-7.1% |
|
|
wfc |
-1.1% |
8.6% |
-7.5% |
1.1% |
4.7% |
-15.2% |
-9.3% |
|
|
gs |
74.2% |
18.4% |
39.8% |
38.8% |
-46.8% |
-44.3% |
-37.9% |
|
|
mer |
132.2% |
33.8% |
39.7% |
67.8% |
-72.3% |
-67.8% |
-76.4% |
-44.8% |
|
wb |
163.4% |
58.3% |
63.3% |
83.4% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
kfn |
-72.8% |
33.2% |
-34.9% |
-81.2% |
-73.4% |
|
||
|
jef |
147.8% |
60.5% |
68.0% |
75.4% |
-45.4% |
|
||
|
pnc |
53.4% |
43.4% |
32.2% |
27.8% |
-80.9% |
-80.6% |
-83.6% |
|
|
bpop |
33.9% |
21.9% |
16.3% |
18.0% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
sti |
89.2% |
33.1% |
9.3% |
45.7% |
-27.1% |
-43.9% |
-51.1% |
-48.3% |
|
snv |
65.8% |
28.1% |
7.8% |
34.0% |
-28.1% |
-31.3% |
20.7% |
|
|
mi |
57.3% |
20.2% |
7.0% |
29.7% |
-28.6% |
28.9% |
57.4% |
-28.7% |
|
asbc |
57.6% |
22.7% |
-10.1% |
29.9% |
-46.8% |
|||
|
fctr |
62.0% |
13.4% |
-15.1% |
32.1% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
mtb |
-1.0% |
0.6% |
-60.3% |
-48.3% |
-50.5% |
-66.5% |
||
|
hban |
33.1% |
16.2% |
-8.1% |
17.6% |
10.6% |
-10.9% |
-27.3% |
-38.2% |
|
bbt |
15.4% |
9.5% |
-21.0% |
8.8% |
10.6% |
-10.9% |
-27.3% |
-38.2% |
|
jpm |
17.2% |
21.6% |
-10.6% |
9.7% |
-18.9% |
-11.2% |
-19.5% |
|
|
usb |
22.0% |
6.5% |
3.3% |
12.1% |
13.4% |
-15.6% |
-17.0% |
-20.4% |
|
cof |
25.3% |
15.3% |
1.2% |
13.7% |
-24.7% |
|
||
|
nara |
51.8% |
32.0% |
10.0% |
27.0% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
sasr |
54.9% |
35.5% |
10.1% |
28.5% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
hnbc |
60.4% |
19.3% |
-16.6% |
31.3% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
cvbf |
16.8% |
24.0% |
9.0% |
9.5% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
gbci |
-8.0% |
25.2% |
1.1% |
-2.9% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
fhn |
7.3% |
22.0% |
-2.4% |
4.8% |
-54.3% |
46.5% |
-43.5% |
44.8% |
|
ncc |
-29.6% |
11.2% |
-15.2% |
-13.7% |
-88.1% |
-83.5% |
-89.5% |
-53.9% |
|
cfc |
16.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
9.4% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
rf |
95.5% |
24.8% |
3.6% |
48.9% |
-24.8% |
-58.7% |
-59.0% |
|
|
zion |
53.2% |
21.0% |
-15.6% |
27.7% |
-3.7% |
-84.4% |
-56.2% |
-31.0% |
|
tcbk |
-15.5% |
13.8% |
-28.0% |
-6.7% |
No coverage |
|
||
|
fitb |
84.0% |
31.5% |
16.7% |
43.1% |
-62.2% |
-19.1% |
67.6% |
59.9% |
|
sov |
140.7% |
67.7% |
69.9% |
71.4% |
-76.0% |
|
||
|
ge |
68.5% |
23.5% |
34.5% |
35.1% |
-51.8% |
-55.0% |
-55.0% |
|
|
axp |
68.0% |
34.6% |
32.6% |
34.7% |
-44.4% |
-47.2% |
|
|
|
hbc |
42.7% |
19.5% |
21.5% |
22.0% |
28.2% |
|
||
|
nav |
95.7% |
50.9% |
52.8% |
48.3% |
-47.8% |
|
||
|
wire |
33.4% |
16.9% |
18.3% |
17.2% |
No |
|
||
|
sfd |
70.2% |
19.7% |
36.5% |
35.3% |
-45.3% |
-14.4% |
||
|
Reggie's |
81.6% |
30.6% |
16.7% |
42.4% |
-30.6% |
-33.0% |
-40.2% |
-22.4% |
As compared to ALL of the popularly followed indices...
|
|
BoomBustBlog's Holding period return (short, margin account) |
Reggie's |
Brokers |
|||||
|
Stock |
1 month |
3 months |
Since invested |
Citibank |
Goldman Sachs |
JP Morgan |
Morgan Stanley |
|
|
Reggie's |
81.6% |
30.6% |
16.7% |
42.4% |
-30.6% |
-33.0% |
-40.2% |
-22.4% |
|
DJI Index |
-21.5% |
-26.8% |
-36.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CCMP INDEX |
-25.0% |
-30.5% |
-38.6% |
|||||
|
CTRN Index |
-24.7% |
-32.2% |
-40.9% |
|||||
|
UTIL Index |
-20.1% |
-28.3% |
-29.5% |
|||||
|
UKX Index |
-22.7% |
-27.2% |
-36.7% |
|||||
|
HSI Index |
-27.1% |
-40.5% |
-36.3% |
|||||
|
RTY Index |
-29.2% |
-30.2% |
-37.3% |
|||||
|
OEX Index |
-21.6% |
-27.4% |
-38.0% |
|||||
|
SPX Index |
-24.5% |
-30.1% |
-39.8% |
|||||
|
AS30 Index |
-20.5% |
-23.7% |
-37.2% |
|||||
|
SPTSX Index |
-26.3% |
-31.6% |
-31.3% |
|||||
|
MXWO Index |
-27.2% |
-34.3% |
-41.5% |
|||||
|
FTAW11 Index |
-33.8% |
-42.7% |
-48.1% |
|||||
|
MXEUG Index |
-21.5% |
-26.8% |
-41.5% |
|||||
|
MXWO Index |
-27.2% |
-34.3% |
-41.5% |
|||||
|
MXEU Index |
-21.3% |
-26.6% |
-42.1% |
|||||
|
DJGT Index |
-22.9% |
-29.7% |
-39.8% |
|||||
|
SGX Index |
-24.7% |
-30.2% |
-36.8% |
|||||
|
SVX Index |
|
-24.4% |
-29.9% |
-42.7% |
||||
