Tuesday, 21 October 2008 02:00

The Butterfly is released!

I am releasing the balance of the Butterfly Effect (see The Asset Securitization Crisis Part 27: The Butterfly Effect) to the public in anticipation of the next two installments of the Asset Securitization Crisis to be published to subscribers, probably sometime this week. Before we go on, I would like to thank the loyal supports of my blog. I think this as I sit up at 3 am (my standard blogging time) typing this post into the blog’s text editor, slightly pissed off at some guy giving me a hard time because I won’t give him what he wants for free. I was enthusiastically supported by readers who truly appreciate the value of actionable intelligence. I would like to put a few excerpts here, starting with an explanation from me (edited to take some of the passion out of the debate):

  • ·
    Reggie (Me): The subscriptions are extremely under
    priced. There is a reason why many of the financial web sites and media
    probably wouldn't have the same results as this site's content. Very competent
    analytical talent is concentrated here. The type of talent that can only be had
    by paying significant sums. This is a byproduct of my own investment endeavors,
    thus is partially subsidized, but the cost of running the site, programming and
    very recently customer service adds even more to the tab. I don't have one
    reporter, professional pundit or editor working for me. All of us are financial
    professionals, MBAs, consultants, financial engineers, auditors, CPAs/forensic
    accountants and investors.
    Some of you are getting this expertise for as little as a few hundred or
    thousand dollars per year, or even as little as 75 dollars per month in summary
    form. Where other sites will use a journalism intern to look at a company's
    situation and produce an article (such as the recent Lehman Brother's CDS
    exposure piece - "I
    can tell you who's holding the bag
    "), I use an MBA from McKinsey, a
    CFA and a forensic accountant, all under the guidance of a successful
    proprietary trader (me). Thanks to all who understand and appreciate the value
    (it may not be priced this way forever) and to all those who don't appreciate
    it....
  • ·
    User 1: Reggie has made all of his subscribers'
    money. They will gladly pay a reasonable fee for continued access to his work.
  • ·
    User 2: Do you have any idea how much brokerage
    research costs??! and that stuff is GARBAGE compared to what is offered here,
    if you know of another place with better research for less money or free please
    let us know. i firmly believe that none exists. i'm 30K in debt from school
    (negative net worth) and make less than half of what most of you here make and
    i still think this is the best deal i have ever seen, it is both an educational
    goldmine for learning how to do quality research and this site is chock full of
    investible ideas. i will continue to make sacrifices in other parts of my life
    to afford the incredible value i see on this blog.
  • ·
    Ditto . I am a 75.00 subscriber. Heck, GGP alone
    paid for three years for me at that rate. Of course I want to know the symbol.
    I am just not a micro vision whiner with an over blown sense of entitlement.
    Maybe Reggie should just let the big hitters in first without cluing us in at
    all. Reggie- I hope you do not waste another brain cell on this. This site is a
    free MBA.
  • ·
    haha, YES, the sell-side DOES use interns to do
    their research!!! the guy even told me, "yea, i'll get my intern to look
    into that." talk about worthless...
  • ·
    Reggie:
    I am a member of several worthy investors' sites some of which I pay for and
    others that are free. This site by far and bar none is the ultimate best value
    for anyone's buck. I don't have large sums to invest compared to many but I
    have already paid for my professional subscription for several years, thanks to
    your excellent insights. Its human nature for many people to want something for
    nothing.
    My father taught me ..you get what you pay for.
    Keep up the great work.
    5755hsa......a proud and happy subscriber.

I'd just like to say "thanks", fellas. Without your outspoken
support, the negative comments probably would make me second guess the wisdom
of the lowest paid tier, given the amount of work involved. Simply realizing
how much it is appreciated and how much it helps the individual investor is
more than enough reason to keep it going long and strong. Now, back to business...

The Butterfly Effect: part 2, the public edition

image001.gifThis is part two of the 27th chapter of the Asset
Securitization Crisis Series to be released to the public, The Butterfly Effect
- definition (adapted from Wikipedia): refers to the idea
that a butterfly's
wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere
that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado
say from an open corn field to the center of a crowded urban populace; or
delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain
location. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of
the system, which causes a chain of (oft unforeseen) events leading to
large-scale alterations of said events. Had the butterfly not flapped its
wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. Of course
the butterfly cannot literally cause
a tornado. The kinetic energy in a tornado is enormously larger than the energy
in the turbulence of a butterfly. The kinetic energy of a tornado is ultimately
provided by the sun and the butterfly can only influence certain details of
weather events in a chaotic (and unpredictable) manner.

Debt refinancing - a more expensive business

As debt refinancing is integral to the activities of industrial
companies, they could be severely affected by an increase in interest rates. Credit
crisis-related losses (totaled US$510 bn as of September 11, 2008) caused
several large investment banks, such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and
Merrill Lynch, to go bust. Large asset writedowns and increase in provisions related
to poor quality assets sapped the credit creating capacity of banks, forcing
them to adopt stricter lending practices. In addition, the rise in inflation globally
has forced the central banks of many countries to raise lending rates. The US consumer
confidence index declined 46% y-o-y in August 2008. Similar trends were seen in
other nations, driving up interest rates and (consequently) borrowing costs. Corporate
bonds issued by industrial companies are now required to pay a higher interest
due to greater perceived risk. The decrease in consumer confidence and higher
default rate on bonds issued by industrial companies were the major factors
behind the increase in perceived risk.

The rise in inflation globally has pushed interest rates
higher in most major countries. Long-term interest rates in the
US increased to 3.89% in 2Q 08 from 3.66% in 1Q 08, while
rates in the UK rose 39
basis points to 4.91% from 4.52%; Europe too
witnessed rate hikes. Higher lending rates have raised the cost of borrowing
for the manufacturing sector. Finding it difficult to refinance their debt, manufacturing
companies could soon start defaulting on loans.

image002.png


Source: Government Website


See
who I have identified as being particularly susceptible to the banking
lending induced downturn in the manufacturing and industrial sector (click here
to subscribe
):

SFD_Pro Report Final 240908 - Free to download with
registration (286.98 kB 2008-09-30 09:58:48)

Click here
to register for a free account
, then return to this link - or pay for a
subscription to access all valuation and opinion content.

While the short-term interest rate decreased in the US and UK,
it increased in the European region from the beginning of the year. In the US, the short-term
interest rate fell to 2.76% in 2Q 08 from 5.02% in 4Q 07. Interest rates rose
slightly to 2.79% in August 2008. The decrease in the short-term interest rate
has not benefited industrial companies as most of them are not able to procure
loans at these rates. In the UK,
the interest rate decreased to 5.76% in August 2008 from 6.31% in 4Q 08. The
short-term interest rate in the European region increased to 4.97% in July 2008
from 4.72% in 4Q 08. Since industrial companies mainly borrow at the long-term
interest rate, higher interest rates impacted these companies by increasing the
cost of borrowing. Both financing and refinancing of debt have thus become
expensive. Trimming their capital expenditure, several companies have postponed
their initial financing plans. Also, as manufacturing companies often resort to
refinancing their existing debt, they are beginning to feel the heat of higher
interest rates.

image005.png


Source: Government Website




Final Encore Pro (452.14 kB
2008-08-30
)

Due to growing recessionary fears, the Federal Reserve
reduced the fed rate (short-term lending rate) through a series of rate cuts by
325 basis points to 2% in September 2008 from 5.25% in August 2007. The
government also reduced the prime rate by 325 basis points to 5% in August 2008
from 8.25% in January 2007. The Fed took these measures to improve liquidity in
the banking system and provide a thrust to the slowing industrial sector.
However, the crash of Bear Stearns and related events rattled the banking
system. Therefore, a decrease in the key interest rate by the Federal Reserve failed
to provide the desired impetus to economic growth as banks did not decrease
their respective lending rate. That the manufacturing sector was hit by higher
interest rates was reflected in the increase in the corporate bond default
rate. Moody's Bond Indices, which cover bonds issued by industrial companies in
the
US, showed that the default rate increased by 61 basis
points to 7.19% as of September 4, 2008, from 6.58% as of January 1, 2008. A
rising default rate is likely to push interest rates even higher in the coming
quarters as the credit rating of defaulting firms would deteriorate. Therefore,
it is difficult to anticipate how manufacturing firms would fare in the current
high interest rate scenario.



Navistar Consolidated Pro report (326.7
kB 2008-08-30
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Navistar Update - pro (214.22 kB
2008-09-17
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Navistar Update - retail (335.47 kB
2008-09-17
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Navistar Variance sheet (1.02 MB
2008-09-04
)

The consumer confidence index, which measures the
outlook for the coming six months, dropped sequentially over the last one year
in the
US. Some reversal in trend could be seen during the last
two months when the index rose to 56.9 in August from 51.9 in July. The decline
in this index reflects the consumers' frame of mind in the current economic
scenario. The Present Situation Index, which measures shoppers' confidence,
fell 2.5 points to 63.2 basis points in August. These figures show that consumers
are not comfortable in the current economic environment. The unemployment rate in
the US
hit a five-year low of 6.1% in August 2008. The high unemployment rate indicates
that industrial companies are likely to face challenges, going forward. Any
further increase in unemployment would soften demand, impacting the
US manufacturing sector.

image006.png


Source: Bloomberg

In the current financial crisis, top US banks are scrambling to refinance bills, which would mature
in the coming months. Banks operate on the principle of rotating finance;
however, as there are not enough buyers, it is becoming difficult to function
on this premise. Banks are due to refinance debt worth US$208 billion by December
2008. Due to the poor quality of assets owned, these banks are finding it incredibly
difficult to finance the bills. This makes short-term borrowing at a higher
interest rate the next viable option; but, if banks borrow at a higher rate, they
also lend at a higher interest rate to manufacturers, increasing the cost of borrowing
cost for these firms.



USG Financial Model Pro (908.78 kB
2008-10-05
)


§ Dwindling sales and
rising costs affect industrial companies

The impact of the global economic slowdown and rise in
inflation on industrial companies is reflected in declining sales and increasing
costs. The growth in inflation worldwide is led by the rise in the prices of commodities,
agricultural products and fuels such as gasoline and crude oil. The rising inflation
has increased the expenses of industrial companies as commodities and energy
are major inputs in production. In most countries, the (respective) central
bank has stepped in by raising key interest rates as well as the minimum reserve
requirement. Rising inflation is a double whammy for companies: as the central
bank raises interest rates, sales tend to decline since borrowing and corporate
investment become more expensive; concurrently, rising raw material costs also
affect companies negatively and reduce sales.

To control inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB)
raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points to a seven-year high of 4.25%
in June. The ECB had been under increasing pressure to reduce the interest rate
to give a boost to the sagging economy. However, the bank did not reduce the
interest rate in September 2008, as it aims to bring down inflation further. The
UK
central bank's Monetary Policy Committee kept the key bank rate unchanged at 5%
on September 4, 2008. According to the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair
Darling, the slowdown in economic growth could be the worst since World War II.

The decline in consumer spending has compelled many
companies to reduce production. Toyota Motors Corporation reduced its auto
sales forecast for 2009 to 2.1% from 5.6%. The company projected auto sales to
be 10.4 million vehicles in 2009, but rising gasoline oil prices are likely to dent
demand. Toyota expects sales to decrease 10% in North America, its biggest market.

The cost of most inputs has risen sharply in the last
one year. Although prices have come down from record highs and are declining m-o-m,
they continue to remain high on a y-o-y basis. Prices of iron and steel, which are
essential components of manufacturing, increased 16.1% y-o-y in August 2008. Prices
of other commodities also rose globally, leading to a sharp rise in input costs.
Various indices in the UK
are pointing toward a trend of declining sales. The non-store retail &
repair index fell 3.2% m-o-m in July 2008. Falling sales are further
pressurizing the margins of industrial companies.

image007.png


Source: Government Website

The
price of crude oil, one of the major inputs for manufacturing companies,
increased at a rapid pace in 2007. Although the price has cooled down (falling 44%
from its all-time high) as of September 11, 2008, it continues to remain high (37.4%)
on a y-o-y basis. The increase in crude prices has pushed the cost of
production higher.

The
high cost of production can be passed by the manufacturer to the retailer only in
certain cases. Various companies are evaluating the extent to which they can pass
higher prices to end-customers. However, industrial companies would be affected
in both cases-higher prices would weaken demand, while the increased cost of
production would hurt margins. In such a scenario, maintaining a fine balance
between the two is an extremely challenging task for industrial companies. Decline
in sales due to increased cost (input and borrowing) is exerting pressure on industrial
companies.

Credit
availability dries up with leverage loan market in distress

The leverage loan market
had been highly active until the start of the US financial crisis, which led to the crash of large investment banks
such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG. With large
financial institutions on the brink of bankruptcy, the global leverage loan
market is in distress as investors are wary of entering it.

A
primer to leverage loans

A leverage loan is offered
by a group of lenders and is structured, approved, and controlled by one or
more commercial or investment banks known as arrangers. These are loans made by
banks to lower rated non-investment grade corporate borrowers. They are
typically longer term loans with floating rates spread above LIBOR. Leveraged
loans are normally made to companies that have outstanding debt and are rated
below investment grade, i.e., a rating below Baa3 by Moody's and BBB- rating
from S&P. These loans are also made to companies with leverage ratios (net
debt/ EBITDA) of four or more. This loan is called a leverage loan even if the
loan made to a company has a coupon rate of LIBOR rate plus 125 basis points or
more. With the issuance of US$84.1 billion of leverage loans in 2Q 08, the
total amount of leverage loans outstanding is at least US$200 billion
worldwide, even as more banks write-off this debt from their balance sheet.

Benefits
of a leverage loan

Financial markets have
evolved over the last 20 years with the leverage loan market providing a
platform for financial innovation. This market is an efficient primary market, which
initiates syndicated credits, as well as a highly efficient secondary trading
market where prices automatically adjust to reflect credit quality and market
conditions. It provides the much-needed credit to lower-rated companies and has
boosted the bankruptcy process in the US through debtor-in-possession
(DIP) lending.

Banks benefit from leverage
loan markets because during tumultuous market conditions, they have an option
to liquidate their positions in syndicated credits in a relatively liquid
secondary market and accordingly rebalance the risk in their loan portfolios.
This permits banks to avoid much stricter lending restrictions when the economy
contracts, and thereby, ensures credit availability even during tougher
economic conditions. There are many variations of leverage loans, which are
highly complicated and risky instruments. Some of these are second lien,
mezzanine, payment-in-kind PIK loans, and toggles.

Growth
path of leverage loans

Historically, banks were
the primary lenders to lower-grade companies until the 1990s. These banks
purchased leverage loans and held them until maturity due to the absence of a
secondary market. During the late 1990s, insurance companies, hedge funds, and
other institutional investors recognized the advantages of leverage loans, which
could deliver high yields apart from risk-adjusted returns. Unprecedented
demand for leverage loans led to the development of a secondary market with
higher liquidity and transparency. Today, institutional investors arrange for
more than two-thirds of the total leverage loans made worldwide.

RJR Nabisco's US$13 billion
deal in 1989, one of the biggest leverage loan agreements, brought the leverage
loan market to prominence. According to S&P Leveraged Commentary and Data,
2002 and 2003 are considered dry periods in the LBO market as the total deal
value amounted to just US$138.7 billion and US$139.4 billion, respectively,
compared to US$255.9 billion in 1998 and US$243.4 billion in 1999. Other major
deals include the Georgia-Pacific (GP) LBO loan package worth US$11 billion,
Alltel's US$4.2 billion deal, and Supervalu's deal worth US$4.0 billion. Among
the latest transactions, Blackstone's bid to buy real estate investment firm
Equity Office Properties Trust for a substantial amount of US$36 billion is considered
one of the biggest LBO transactions in history.

Tremendous
growth in leverage loan market in 2007

When the US economy
started to show signs of a recession in 2007, the supply of lower-rated loans
increased exponentially as the lure of high returns attracted many high-risk
investors. According to Mark Gilbert, a Bloomberg news columnist, private
equity firms declared a record US$736 billion of LBO deals globally in 2007 compared
to US$696 billion in 2006 and US$270 billion in 2005. The huge success of LBOs,
particularly before the credit crunch set in, created a lot of companies with
the potential to go bankrupt. Due to a large number of buyers for a single
company, the deals were finalized at much higher multiples of EBITDA. Deals
priced at five or six times EBITDA were bought at nine times EBITDA. These
inflated prices led to the downfall of several companies as it created
unnecessary risk.

In 2006, 62% of new
leverage loans in the US and
70% in Europe were sold in the form of
collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). CLOs are a pool of bank loans divided
into various tranches, providing investors with diversified exposure to
leverage loans. In view of the current problems related to structured credit's
exposure to the subprime sector in the US, concerns have emerged about the
CLO market, since it carries the same risk. Most of the deals closed in 2007 in
the industrial sector were utilized to fund working capital needs and, in some
cases, expansion plans. If the default on these loans increases, industrial
companies would be in trouble.

Market
plummets in 2008

The leverage loan market in
the US
has changed considerably since 2007. The US economy is at a more advanced
stage of the economic cycle and is under increased stress. The auto and airline
sectors were the first victims of the economic slowdown, followed by the
housing market due to defaults on subprime debt. US companies have seen their
leverage multiples rise. The debt ratio of an average leverage loan deal,
measured as a debt multiple of cash flows, has gone above 6.5% from the
historic levels of 4.5% in 2001.

image008.png



Picture
false
Source: Bloomberg

The graph above represents
historical prices vis-à-vis volatility of the DLJLVAL Index, a prime leverage
loan index in the US.
There was a sharp dip in the price and volatility metrics during December 2002
due to the debt crisis. In 2007, the 10-month historical volatility went up to
6.4% with the price touching 275 levels as many capital-intensive sectors
raised loans from leverage markets. In 2008, prices and volatility have dropped
as fewer loans are being raised and lower volumes are being traded in the
secondary market. This trend is expected to continue during the coming months
of 2008 and the first half of 2009 as leverage loans dry up. Therefore, capital
intensive companies in the industrial sector face a high risk of going bankrupt
due to credit unavailability and heavy exposure to leverage loans. Servicing
these high interest loans in the tough market environment would be a
challenging task for industrial companies.

Leverage
loan issuance subsides in FY 2008

Negative macroeconomic
factors, which include declining GDP, escalating inflation, higher default
rates, and soaring interest rate in the economy, have weighed on the leverage
loan market as reflected by decreased loan issuance. The negative macroeconomic
environment worsened with the collapse of a number of financial institutions,
mounting write-offs in leveraged loan portfolios, total rate of return (TRR)
CLO unwinds, tightening liquidity, a sizable loan overhang and negligible new
issuance.

image009.png

Total syndicated loan
issuance in the US
declined 60.5% y-o-y in 2Q 08 to US$229.6 billion. This slowdown indicates that
investors are hesitant to buy new loans due to weakness in the secondary
market. However, syndicated loan issuance increased 38.4% q-o-q in 2Q 08 from
US$165.9 billion in 1Q 08, thereby showing some signs of improvement. The total
leveraged loan issuance in the US
was US$84.1 billion in 2Q 08, down 61.6% from US$219.0 billion in 2Q 07 but up
39.2% from US$60.4 billion in 1Q 08. The sharp y-o-y drop in US leveraged loan
issuance was largely due to the steep decline in LBO and institutional issuance
as the credit crisis continued to tighten its grip on capital markets. Merger
& acquisition (M&A) issuance in the US totaled US$50.3 billion in 2Q
08, up 47.5% from US$34.1 billion in 1Q 08. LBO issuance in the US was just
US$7.9 billion in 2Q 08, up only slightly from US$6.5 billion in 1Q 08.

Institutional issuance
(including refinancing and new money) declined 86% in 2Q 08 to US$20.0 billion
from US$143.4 billion in 2Q 07, while second lien issuance fell 77% to just
US$3.5 billion during the same period. New issuance during 2Q 08 was led by
industry sectors including healthcare, utilities, oil & gas, beverage,
food, and tobacco, although surprisingly automotive and automotive-related
borrowers were one of the largest issuers of new facilities. The automotive
sector borrowed these funds mainly out of financial necessity and liquidity
needs as the sector continues to experience rising raw material costs, labor
issues, and softening demand.

image010.jpg

In
line with general expectations, Moody's considers the US construction
industry to be the most vulnerable followed by the industrial sector. According
to Moody's index, which uses market prices to assess how much of the speculative-grade
market is at distressed levels, the debt of 21.3% of borrowers was trading at
junk levels in April 2008, up from just 1.3% in June 2007. The recent weakness
in the US
loan market is likely to dampen the growth of industrial companies. The key loan
index in the US
saw its implied spread widen from 105 basis points to 295 basis points on a
y-o-y basis in June 2007.

Rising
default rates in leverage loan market

The number of borrowers
defaulting on their debt obligation is gradually going up as expected by a few
credit rating agencies such as Moody's and S&P. As the latest figures show,
default rates, which were as low as 0.2% in August 2007, have gone up almost 13
times to 3.3% in August 2008. Insiders say this is just the tip of the iceberg,
with default on bigger loans anticipated. According to sources, companies in
the real estate and auto sectors accounted for more than half the defaults this
year, closely followed by the gambling sector. Moody's expects that this rate
would rise to 5% by the end of 2008 and 6.1% by 1H 09 as loan issuers
anticipate the economy to slow down further and loan recoverability from
lower-rated companies to reduce.

image011.png

The last period of high
default rates was December 2000 (see chart above) after the leverage loan boom
in 1998 and 1999. With the dotcom bust, most telecom companies that had taken
these loans, crashed and defaulted on their payments. Furthermore, the graph
shows an upward trend from almost no defaults in December 2007 to about 3.0% in
1H 08, indicating a steep rise in the number of defaulters. This increasing
trend is expected to continue until the end of 2009 as most of the loans would
mature by the end of 2008 or 2009. Manufacturing and industrial companies are
expected to be the worst hit as majority of them would default due to falling
margins with the slowdown, rising input costs, and falling consumer confidence.
In addition, increasing interest rates would lead to higher borrowing cost,
negatively impacting the margins of companies.

image012.png

The
S&P/LSTA Index shows the trend in all kinds of loans in the US market for
the last 11 years. The level of B loans, also known as subprime loans extended
to borrowers with tainted or limited credit histories, took a hit during the
dotcom bust in 2002-03. Since then, there was a surge in demand for all types
of loans before the retraction that started in December 2007. This trend is
seen to continue into the next year.

Fractured
deals and broken structures

The leveraged loan market
showed signs of panic recently, following the failure to syndicate US$14
billion of debt used to finance the US$30 billion buyout of Harrah's
Entertainment. Another instance of panic was when the group of banks assisting
buyers Apollo Management and Texas Pacific Group were having problems with
selling the LBO debt to third parties. In fact, every deal made in the past few
months is trading well below 90 cents on the dollar, with most market watchers
concluding that the bottom is still out of sight.

The current dismal
conditions have dragged the markets back into the price finding mode. Due to
these conditions, underwriters are cutting back, modifying, or in some cases,
delaying loan offerings that showed much promise during 2003-07, when the
markets were on an upswing. Many industrial companies have postponed their
issues as a majority of the investors expected higher returns than the
company's estimates or there is no more investor confidence left in the market
for these companies. Some instances where deals have been modified or postponed
are AllteF's loan syndication, which was downsized in early November 2007 from
an original target of US$6 billion to US$3.2 billion. Chrysler Automotives'
US$4 billion loan and Energy & Industrial Utilities' US$425 million loan
were also postponed. These are just some of the industrial companies whose
deals collapsed.

Leverage
loan volumes declined in the European region in 1Q 08

The European leveraged loan
market opened its doors to non-bank participants in 2003. Since then, the
market in terms of outstanding loans has grown dramatically as investors were
lured by high-yield bonds. Demand for leverage loans has been very high with most
corporate borrowings being executed in the loan market. This strong demand was
matched by increasing supply in the form of private equity sponsors financing
the recent LBO boom. Against the backdrop of this strong growth, a number of
recent developments have been the cause of increasing concern for the market as
leveraged finance issuance nosedived to €11.1 billion in 1Q 08 from €89.4
billion in 1Q 07. The decline in demand for these products is due to the
greater underlying risk. Besides, due to huge writedowns during the current
credit crisis, investors expect riskier assets to default.

Signs
of rising default risk in the European market

Default risk in the
European leverage loan market has been low historically. However, in the
current credit crisis, defaults are likely to surge once lenders and sponsors
shy away from companies that need capital for financial restructuring,
according to S&P Ratings Services. In its recent report, S&P listed 52
global publicly rated companies that defaulted (from June 2007 to June 2008),
driving up the TTM speculative-grade default rate to 1.8%. This compares with
only 22 publicly rated companies globally for the whole of 2007, with a record
low default rate of 1.0%. Among the 52 companies, the only rated European
company to default was the French drinks manufacturing company Belvedere S.A., which
voluntarily filed for bankruptcy in July 2008.

In Europe,
as more activity takes place in the unrated private leveraged loan market, it
would be inadequate to review defaults of only high-yield issuers that are
publicly rated. S&P's private credit estimate database of 648 entities (as
of June 2008), comprising mainly private leveraged loans held in institutional
investors' portfolios, says a different story. Over the 12-month period until
June 2008, 10 defaults were recorded in Europe,
representing a default rate of 1.5%. Going
forward, S&P's analysis suggests that the private European leveraged loan
default rate is likely to reach 5.8% by mid-2009, and majority of the
defaulters would be in the industrial and consumer goods sectors.

According to Moody's, FMCG
companies are likely to be the most risky in the European region. With the
latest figures showing retail sales dropping 1.6% in March 2008 in the region,
most retail companies, which were LBO targets, look increasingly vulnerable.
For instance, Coltrane CLO Plc held an auction to sell €394 million of loans.
Nine banks paid an amount totaling 86.7% of face value for the securities,
according to KPMG LLP. Deutsche Bank AG said recently that it bought about a
third of that debt. With the European leverage market showing signs of a slowdown
due to rising default rates particularly in the industrial sector, it would
become more difficult for industrial companies to raise capital.

image013.jpg

The industry-wise breakup
of leverage loans made in Europe shows a gradual rise in leverage loan
transactions from 2003 until 1Q 08, with the biggest of around €230 billion
recorded in 2007. In 2003, no particular sector/ industry held the highest
share of loans taken. With the telecom boom, most of the loans from 2003-06
went to the telecom sector. However, in 2007, the general manufacturing
industry accounted for the highest share of leverage loans made on a y-o-y
basis. According to Reuters, in 1Q 08, borrowings were highest in the real
estate (€1.5 billion), telecom (€1.1 billion), and general manufacturing (€0.8
billion) sectors. With huge loans on their capital and slowdown in the European
economy, most of these leveraged manufacturing companies are likely to default
on their repayments. Defaults would increase as the companies would be under
increasing pressure to refinance their loans, which has become difficult due to
stricter lending practices and higher interest rates.

Negative
impact on industrial/ manufacturing units

With the current scenario
looking extremely gloomy, industrial and manufacturing units in the US, Europe, and
around the world are likely to find it exceptionally difficult to keep up with
their capex projections. The market turmoil in the US, expected global economic
slowdown due to the credit crisis, rising input costs, and dwindling consumer
spending would adversely affect the capex plans of these industrial companies.
The option of internal funding is looking grim as companies' reserves are
depleting due to diminishing profit margins resulting from the slowdown.
Moreover, higher borrowing rates are keeping companies away from banking
institutions. Lastly, leverage loans are getting out of their reach as investor
confidence declines with rising default rates. As the credit crunch plagues the
industry making credit availability difficult in the light of worsening
macroeconomic conditions, demand is set to decline. Going forward, we believe
the impact of the failure of financial companies and ongoing credit crisis
would trickle down to the real sector and negatively impact industrial and
manufacturing companies.

Default
risk of companies continues to rise as depicted by rising CDS spreads

The notional outstanding
value of credit default swaps (CDS) grew at an exponential pace from US$900
billion in 2000 to US$45 trillion in 2007 and US$62 trillion in 2008, which is
more than four times the US GDP. The recent cataclysmic events in US financial
markets changed the face of Wall Street as two of its investment banks
evaporated in the heat of the credit crisis. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers
(Lehman), fire sale of Merrill Lynch, and nationalization of AIG has seen CDS
spreads rise not just in financial sectors. Though AIG was bailed out, Lehman's
bankruptcy would have a far-reaching effect on the CDS market as settlement
issues surface in the near future. The worst fears on Wall Street have come
true as distrust among financial institutions has frozen credit markets in the
last few days. Central banks across the globe are injecting liquidity to soothe
financial markets.

The spike in CDS spreads
reflects the rise in perceived risk and loss of investor confidence as the
strain in the financial sector continues. The rise in insurance cost reflects the
increased probability of default by companies, further dampening the credit
situation. The rise in default rates would send ripples across the financial
system as more companies are anticipated to be in trouble and possibly fail in
the near future.

The US Government two-year
note rates declined 31 basis points from September 15 to 19. This is the
highest decrease since February 2008 as investors opted for the safer
government debt. The bankruptcy of Lehman and nationalization of AIG, Fannie
Mae, and Freddie Mac have made financial markets skeptical about the safety of
corporate bonds. With investors hoarding safe treasury bonds, the CDS of
corporate bonds skyrocketed in the past week.

The financial turmoil in
mid-September 2008 led to a surge in the CDS spread of financial giants as
liquidity froze and perceived credit risk increased. The fact was evident in
the case of AIG as the credit spread of the five-year bond began to increase
since the start of September 2008. This spread increased 529.2 points to 902.5 basis
points on September 12, 2008, from 373.3 on September 1. This was the time when
the company declared its business was in trouble. As AIG's requirement of US$40
billion came to light, spreads increased to 3500 basis points on September 16,
2008. Subsequently, the insurer was bailed out by the Federal Reserve, which
provided US$85 billion of bridge loans for an 80% stake in the company.
Washington Mutual, which has written down losses totaling up to US$14.8 billion
and is looking to save itself from liquidation, has seen its spread rise. The
CDS spread for a five-year period soared 88% as of September 17, 2008, since
September 1.

image014.png



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Source: Bloomberg

CDS
spreads widen mainly in banking and industrial sectors

The US dollar-denominated
CDS year-to-date (YTD) movement until July 2008 showed that all industries
reported wider spreads except the building & materials sector, which
expanded more than 400% in 2007. The worst-performing sectors were
transportation, automotive, insurance, gaming, banking & finance, lodging
& restaurant, and broadcasting & media, with the spread of each
widening by greater than 90%.

The banking and finance
sector bore most of the brunt of the credit turmoil as around 40% of
outstanding CDSs are held by this sector. Top investment banks saw their spread
rise in the last few months as they reported increasing losses led by asset
writedowns and increase in provision. As losses mounted for these institutions,
the CDS spread also gained as the risk of default rose. The spread of Bank of
America, which has written down US$21.2 billion in the current credit crisis
until September 11, 2008, increased as the company acquired Merrill Lynch. The
spread increased by 99 basis points to 223.3 points on September 17, 2008, from
September 1. This rise indicates that as the riskiness of companies' increases,
the CDS spread also moves upward, reflecting greater default risk. The spike in
CDS spreads is an indicator of the deteriorating health of financial
institutions. Goldman Sachs' CDS spreads also rose considerably to 443.3 basis
points on September 17, 2008, from 129.6 on August 1, 2008.

image015.png



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Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley (), one of the
last two independent US
based investment banks, is (was) in merger talks with Wachovia Corporation. Morgan
Stanley registered further losses of US$1.3 billion in 3Q 08 to record total
losses of US$15.7 billion. As illustrated in the charts below, the CDS spreads
of both Wachovia and Morgan Stanley widened considerably in the past week. The
CDS spread of Morgan Stanley increased to 997.9 basis points on September 17,
2008, from 225.1 basis points as of August 1, 2008. Similarly, Wachovia Corp.,
which wrote down assets worth US$22.7 billion as of September 19, 2008 (Source:
Bloomberg), saw its spread increase to 756.7 basis points as of September 17,
2008, from 108.3 basis points at the start of the year. The tremendous increase
in the perceived risk of the asset in 2008 led to the rapid widening of its CDS
spread.

image016.png



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Source: Bloomberg

The turmoil in the
financial markets is spreading across the general economy as the perceived risk
has increased and chances of corporate failures are on the rise. Spreads have
widened across the industrial and manufacturing segments as investors believe
the likely recession in the US
economy would lead to more bankruptcies. Tight credit market conditions, rising
inflation and unemployment, declining consumer confidence, flagging consumer
sales, and increased interest burden would cause distress among industrial and
manufacturing companies.

In the transportation
sector, airlines such as AMR Corporation, JetBlue Airways Corp., and
Continental Airlines, Inc. were the worst hit. Trucking companies YRC Worldwide
Inc. and USF Corp. saw their spreads almost double to 912 and 957 basis points YTD,
respectively, through July 2008. Since production has declined due to falling
consumer demand, the transportation sector's profitability has dropped,
increasing the CDS spread for these companies.

Among auto manufacturers,
the worst performer was General Motors Corp as its CDS spread increased to 2486
basis points as of September 18, 2008, from 726.6 basis points at the start of
the year. Due to the bleak outlook for the auto sector, it is not surprising to
see spreads of companies rise. General Motors has been in trouble as its losses
have been mounting. The company reported a net loss of US$15 billion in 2Q 08
as sales in North America decreased 20%. This
decline mainly increased the CDS spread raising the company's perceived risk.

image017.png



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false

Source: Bloomberg

The average spread on CDSs
increased in all but one industry in 2008. This factor indicates that the
market may be bracing for more corporate defaults. Fitch Ratings said spreads
have widened the most this year in industries badly hit by the housing and
subprime crises. These industries include banking, insurance, transportation,
gaming, and media. Of the 23 business segments that Fitch covers, only one
sector - building and materials - has seen spreads tighten. Spreads in this
sector dropped almost 50% to about 504 basis points through July 2008. Spreads
in the construction-related sector had skyrocketed in 2007, rising around 400%.
Surging spreads make it difficult for many companies to refinance debt.
Increasing spreads raise the perceived risk, pushing the insurance cost higher.
This in turn is expected to further increase borrowing costs in the bond and
loan markets.

Wider spreads across the
board indicate that the market would be preparing for a rise in defaults.
According to Fitch, the high-yield corporate default rate rose to 3.1% at the
end of June 2008 from 0.5% at the end of 2007. One can expect greater defaults
in the future as spreads increase and investors seek greater reward for taking
on credit risk.

image018.jpg

Major
CDS indices are falling as credit market turmoil touches nadir

The current credit crisis
has resulted in an increase in spreads across regions. The rise in asset
writedowns, surging global inflation, and deteriorating macroeconomic
conditions have worsened the outlook for the economy. The rise in input prices
led to an increase in cost of production, slowing down growth in companies. As
a result, there is greater pressure on companies across sectors, leading to
increase in credit spreads. Furthermore, considering the crumbling financial
sector, large number of bankruptcies, and a few companies looking for a
suitable buyer, the spread is bound to increase. Overall, the situation ahead
looks challenging and murkier for companies.

The
US
CDX NA IG index spread widens at a rapid pace by over 200 basis points from
April 1, 2008, to 469.2 basis points as of September 16, 2008.
This
index's spread could rise further as an increasing number of financial
institutions, including Washington Mutual and Morgan Stanley, are looking for a
possible buyer. The US
financial system, which looked resilient until now, seems to be crumbling as investors
are wary of the current turmoil.

image019.png



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Source: Bloomberg

The popular index in
Europe, know as Itraxx Europe index, which covers 125 investment-grade entities
from six sectors - auto, consumer, energy, financials, industrials, and TMT - has
seen its spread widen in the last one month. The Itraxx Europe index rose 43.8% to 143.75 as of September 16, 2008,
from September 1, 2008.
With the rise in the number of companies
defaulting, the credit spread is increasing rapidly as revealed by the index.
This could raise the insurance cost as well as the default risk of companies.

The US financial
crisis has impacted the entire globe, widening the CDS spread in all markets.
The spread of the Itraxx Asia index rose, leading to increased default risk. The
index rose 25.7% to 699.61 as of September 16, 2008, from September 1, 2008.

Japan's economic
health has deteriorated as indicated by its GDP, which fell 3% (annualized) in
2Q 08. The Itraxx Japan index spread expanded by 49 basis points to 179 basis
points as of September 16, 2008, from April 1, 2008. Furthermore, the
increasing spread increases the probability of default, which is rising
worldwide.

image020.png



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false

Source: Bloomberg

CDS
spread widens in Europe

Following the trend in the US, the spread
of companies in the European banking and finance sector more than doubled in
July 2008. The financial crisis impacted the banking and insurance industries the
most, as reflected by the increasing spreads in these sectors. In 2008, other
than these two sectors, the retail, automotive, and transportation sectors had
the highest average spread levels in absolute terms, while the spreads of
automotive, broadcasting & media, and building & materials sectors widened
the most on percentage terms. While all companies in the transportation sector
had greater spreads this year, the high average value is largely due to
Scandinavian Airlines. This company's spread rose to 529 basis points, whereas that
of British Airways jumped to 395 basis points, up 167 and 242 basis points,
respectively, from the start of the year. Spreads of retail companies widened
substantially during 2007. The trend continued in 2008, with the spread increasing
by an average of 119 basis points to nearly 225 basis points YTD through July.
The spreads of most companies widened, with some underperforming considerably.
On a nominal basis, DSG International's spread increased the most, expanding 338
basis points from 122 basis points to 460 basis points as of September 18,
2008. Stalwarts such as Tesco Corp and Carrefour SA saw their spread widen by
43 basis points to 73 basis points and 41 basis points to 71 basis points,
respectively, as of September 18, 2008, from the start of the year. The
increase in the CDS spread of all these companies indicates the rising default
risk. Consequently, the extra charge for the insurance of the debt is rising.

image021.jpg

Industrial/ manufacturing
companies, which had not witnessed a large increase in spread, have begun to
feel the pressure of rising spreads. All companies in the automotive sector
performed poorly. On a small scale, auto parts suppliers fared the worst, with
spreads of Continental AG and Valeo SA widening by 219 basis points to 252
basis points and 201 basis points to 236 basis points, respectively, as of
September 18, 2008, from the start of the year. Two companies led the rise in
spreads in the Broadcasting & Media sector. SEAT Pagine Gialle S.p.A.'s
spread rose 1028 basis points to 1375 basis points YTD, the highest spread in
the industry, while ITV Plc's spread widened 198 basis points to 308 basis
points. The increase in the CDS spread has increased the default risk. This is
because borrowing cost increases with the CDS spread, making debt refinancing
costlier. As industrial production decreases (as shown by the Index for
Industrial Production), industrial companies are likely to feel the pinch of a
higher cost of borrowing. This situation is likely to result in the closure of many
companies.

Bankruptcy
of Lehman to raise settlement issues in the CDS market

The CDS market has grown at
an extremely fast rate but the rules governing it have not kept pace. The
default of one party to the transaction increases the potential risk to the
entire financial system. The default of Lehman, which has led to an increase in
the CDS spread of all financial players in the system, makes this clear. To
avoid a similar situation, Bear Stearns was bailed out by the Federal Reserve.
The complete failure of Bear Stearns would have impacted the entire financial
system, compelling the Federal Reserve to intervene and save the company from
bankruptcy. However, since Lehman has filed for bankruptcy, the effect of its
presence in the CDS market would lead to a cascading effect of huge defaults.
Though the Federal Reserve has stated that Lehman does not have much presence
in the CDS market, Fitch has listed Lehman among the top 10 largest CDS
counterparties in terms of number of trades and debt value of contracts. As
CDSs are sold and resold creating an entanglement between institutions,
Lehman's default is likely to have far-reaching effects on the entire financial
system. Therefore, the domino effect arising from Lehman's fall raises
questions regarding CDS settlements. Update: I have done some digging into this since the
Butterfly Effect was originally published. See "
Do
you who's going to screw who next week?
" and
"I
can tell you who's holding the bag
" for some
hard numbers and facts relating to this.

According to Fitch, Lehman
acted as the CDS swap counterparty in 27 Fitch-rated public synthetic CDOs and
35 private CDOs. Of the 27 public CDOs, 12 are in Europe and 15 in Asia. Among the 35 Private CDOs, 17 are based in Europe,
15 in Asia, and 3 in the US.
The impact of CDS transactions and CDO note ratings, in which Lehman acted a
swap counterparty, would rely on a number of factors. Some of these factors
include the swap being transferred to another counterparty; the status of the CDO
transaction - whether or not it faces an automatic unwind in view of Lehman's
bankruptcy; and the extent to which CDO note holders would be subject to the market
value risk of eligible securities in the event of early termination of the
transaction. This is similar to earlier cases in which Aon Corporation (Aon)
booked a huge loss on its protection sold to Bear Stearns. The failure of
Lehman highlights the counterparty risk of global financial institutions. The
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) needs to come up with a
mechanism for settlement in the CDS market. Accordingly, the credit default
instrument should be exchange traded rather than OTC. A regulated exchange with
proper mechanisms in place would be better equipped to take care of the counterparty
risk and operational inefficiencies in the CDS market.

The deteriorating financial market coupled with worsening
macroeconomic conditions are expected to result in a significant rise in
defaults in the near future. Highly volatile market conditions along with
considerably higher spreads are increasing investors' concerns regarding
financial services companies and non-financial enterprises such as automotive
and manufacturing companies. The trouble in financial markets has begun to
impact the manufacturing sector and is likely to have a significant effect on
the global economy. The considerable rise in default rate in the US economy points
to the worsening scenario. The US
high-yield corporate default rate rose to 3.1% at the end of June 2008 from
0.5% at the end of 2007. For the moment, we believe that economies around the
globe are in for difficult times as the financial turmoil worsens and impacts
growth in the real economy.

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The Asset
Securitization Crisis Analysis road-map to date:

  1. Intro: The great housing bull run - creation of asset
    bubble, Declining lending standards, lax underwriting activities increased
    the bubble - A comparison with the same during the S&L crisis
  2. Securitization - dissimilarity between the S&L and the
    Subprime Mortgage crises,
    The bursting of housing bubble - declining home prices and
    rising foreclosure
  3. Counterparty risk analyses - counter-party failure will
    open up another Pandora's box
    (must read for anyone who is not a CDS
    specialist)
  4. The
    consumer finance sector risk is woefully unrecognized, and the US Federal
    reserve to the rescue
  5. Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis - part
    I
  6. Municipal
    bond market and the securitization crisis - part 2
    (should be read by
    whoever is not a muni expert - this newsbyte
    may be worth reading as well
    )
  7. An overview of my personal Regional Bank short prospects
    Part I: PNC Bank - risky loans skating on razor thin capital
    , PNC
    addendum Posts One and Two
  8. Reggie
    Middleton says don't believe Paulson: S&L crisis 2.0, bank failure
    redux
  9. More
    on the banking backdrop, we've never had so many loans!
  10. As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep
    doo-doo!
  11. A
    little more on HELOCs, 2nd lien loans and rose colored glasses
  12. Will
    Countywide cause the next shoe to drop?
  13. Capital,
    Leverage and Loss in the Banking System
  14. Doo-Doo bank
    drill down, part 1 - Wells Fargo
  15. Doo-Doo
    Bank 32 drill down: Part 2 - Popular
  16. Doo-Doo Bank 32 drill down: Part 3 - SunTrust Bank
  17. The
    Anatomy of a Sick Bank!
  18. Doo
    Doo Bank 32 Drill Down 1.5: Wells Fargo Bank
  19. GE:
    The Uber Bank???
  20. Sun Trust
    Forensic Analysis
  21. Goldman
    Sachs Snapshot: Risk vs. Reward vs. Reputations on the Street
  22. Goldman Sachs Forensic Analysis
  23. American
    Express: When the best of the best start with the shenanigans, what does
    that mean for the rest..
  24. Pt one of three of my opinion of HSBC and the
    macro factors affecting it
  25. The
    Big Bank Bust
  26. Continued
    Deterioration in Global Lending, Government Intervention in Free Markets

Last modified on Tuesday, 21 October 2008 02:00

3 comments

  • Comment Link Anil Goyal Tuesday, 21 October 2008 21:28 posted by Anil Goyal

    Hi Reggie,
    I highly appreicate your work and my portfolio is even smaller than Bruce13.
    But I will continue to be your loyal subsciber.
    Keep up your good work.
    I like your retail summary very much.
    Thanks
    Anil

    Report
  • Comment Link Truth08 Tuesday, 21 October 2008 16:01 posted by Truth08

    This is definitely one of the best finance and investing blogs I've seen, and I greatly appreciate the effort that gets put into it. In fact, I'm trying to scrape together the $500 for a subscription right now. Keep up the good work!
    [url]http://www.thetruthshallsetyoufree.net/?p=48[/url]

    Report
  • Comment Link Bruce nALEPKA Tuesday, 21 October 2008 15:33 posted by Bruce nALEPKA

    I was the user that started the ball rolling on your exchange with the dissatisfied person you mentioned above. I have a 20K account and I am up about 6K based on your banking sector analysis and your commentary regarding REITs in a few short months, wherein we have had two government interventions into banning short-selling, which affected option pricing, especially in regards to buying puts. Whatever they throw at us, we have your analysis on our side. Your work is top-notch no doubt about it!!!

    Please keep in mind however, that this is a dual relationship; you may give actionable intelligence, but it is up to the subscriber and the subscriber's budget to put your intelligence to good use. We may all be professional people, but we all have different investing situations. In my case, there is only so much I can do with an account so small. Shorting shares of stock is out of the question for me due to the size of the investment necessary. Also, in this government manipulated environment, it is difficult to have blind faith that a highly leveraged, unevenly run company will necessarily drop in share price, even though all of the signs may be pointing that way! I can't, simply can't, risk margin calls if I short, that's why I use put options. That's my situation, of course, and everyone is different.

    Please keep the "little guys" like me in mind when talking about how much this investment advice is worth. Agreed, it is worth a whole lot more than $75 per month, but if it was priced any higher, I may be out of game. Similar to sporting events and personal seat licenses that are now being put into effect. People that had tickets for a number of years have been suddenly shut out from attending games. It would be greatly appreciated if you throw us a bone every now and then on how you would play one of your actionable items. I don't believe you can get in trouble for dispensing advice; you have a disclaimer that subscribers should read prior to viewing your analysis.

    In summation, even though I work by Wall Street, I am not a bankster or an investment house and I do not run and tell my buddies what you are writing about. Everybody should pay a fee to be in the know with Reggie, just keep in mind that if the fees do go much higher, a group of us that may have been your first loyal subscribers may be the ones to suffer.

    Looking forward to more on the butterfly effect.

    Bruce13

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