Saturday, 26 January 2013 08:52

I Don't Think Facebook Investors Will "Like" This!!! Google Has Already Caught Up In Terms Of Active Users Featured

For those who don't follow me, I've been bearish on Facebook's stock since day one, primarily due to valuation and pricing issues.  I've made (or saved) my subscribers a fortune on the Facebook IPO, from pre-IPO private trading to IPO at $38, to its fall to $17 or so. Lately, the stock has been on a tear. On January 10th, I posted "As Facebook Finally Starts To Approach Its IPO Price The Competition Thoroughly Outclasses It - Buyer Beware", basically a warning that my many admonitions concerning FB's risk adjusted prospects for success are still rather optimistic considering the offerings of its most dangerous competitor, Google. The piece illustrated how Google+ was not only technically superior to Facebook in nearly every way, but far cheaper for advertisers (Facebook's only real revenue stream) as well. Well, here's another potential nail in the like button coffin...

Facebook has two major caveats to its current business model. One is the monetization of its user base. The second is the growth of said user base itself....

 

 image005

Facebook's subscriber growth has actually slowed materially since this graphic was made.  

FB IPO Analysis  Valuation Note Page 09

Well, here's the real kicker....

Google+ grows to become 2nd largest social platform globally

... and to make things worse, Google also owns the number three social platform as well. When combined, they have effectively caught up to Facebook already after just a single year of effort. That should scare the shit out of Facebook investors!

Google+, who despite being branded a failure or ghost town by large portions of the media, grew in terms of active usage by 27% to 343m users to become the number 2 social platform. Interestingly for Google, YouTube (not previously tracked by us as a social platform) comes in at number 3, demonstrating the immense opportunity of linking Google’s services through the G+ social layer. This is also a key indication of why Google+ integrated with the Google product set is so key to the future of search and the internet. We’ve got more coming on Google+ later this week as well.
Source: +GlobalWebIndex 
Link: http://goo.gl/hgU4k


Here are some very interesting comments from the Google+ post that I sourced this from, one being from the Google+ head himself (Vic).

  • I recently read an article about Exxon using G+ in place of Facebook and Microsoft to create global collaborative workgroups. The article noted the seamless G+ integration with video, messaging, and document sharing as a key factor in their decision to utilize Google over similar services offered by MS and the like. Another interesting growth area has been in education.#GooglePlusInTheClassroomIMO Google Plus isn't as much of a social networking platform as much as a Information Enterprise platform for the masses.

vicsreponse 

This level of social interaction from Google managment is both impressive and commendable. Now, to reminisce on past pontifications Facebook....

I also happened to do the same on the Max Kesier show...

I discussed Facebook on the Peter Schiff radio show, the Facebook excerpt is below...

Additional Facebook analysis, valuation and commentary.

On Max Keiser, go to the 13:55 marker for more on Facebook...

Double your money by shorting the Street's advice! Once Again!

How the Facebook story got started...

Facebook started its institutional investment life as a very popular, very well known company. Goldman took this story (private) stock and went bananas with it, as meticulously illustrated in the following blog posts:

  1. Facebook Registers The WHOLE WORLD! Or At Least They Would Have To In Order To Justify Goldman’s Pricing: Here’s What $2 Billion Or So Worth Of Goldman HNW Clients Probably Wish They Read This Time Last Week!
  2. Facebook Becomes One Of The Most Highly Valued Media Companies In The World Thanks To Goldman, & Its Still Private!
  3. Here’s A Look At What The Goldman FaceBook Fund Will Look Like As It Ignores The SEC & Peddles Private Shares To The Public Without Full Disclosure
  4. The Anatomy Of The Record Bonus Pool As The Foregone Conclusion: We Plug The Numbers From Goldman’s Facebook Fund Marketing Brochure Into Our Models
  5. Did Goldman Just Rip Its HNW and Institutional Clients Once Again? Facebook Growth Slows Pre-IPO, Just As We Warned!

I issued private research to my subscribers while publicly warning that Facebook at, or anywhere near, its IPO price was a blatant bald faced SCAM & RIPOFF!!!

  1. The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1
  2. The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly

As the actual IPO arrived, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc. piled on the Bullshit, basically espousing how great an investment this was at $38, screaming that this was a once in a lifetime opportunity. Basically, they took the opposite stance of yours truly. And how did that worked out??? BoomBustBlog Challenges Face Ripping Facebook Share Peddlers That Left Muppets Faceless And Nearly 50% Poorer After IPO.

Here is a full year of free blog posts and paid research material warning that ANYBODY following the lead of Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan on the Facebook offering would get their Face(book)s RIPPED!!! Could you imagine me on a reality TV show based on this stuff??? Well, it's coming...

  1. Facebook Registers The WHOLE WORLD! Or At Least They Would Have To In Order To Justify Goldman’s Pricing: Here’s What $2 Billion Or So Worth Of Goldman HNW Clients Probably Wish They Read This Time Last Week!
  2. Facebook Becomes One Of The Most Highly Valued Media Companies In The World Thanks To Goldman, & Its Still Private!
  3. Here’s A Look At What The Goldman FaceBook Fund Will Look Like As It Ignores The SEC & Peddles Private Shares To The Public Without Full Disclosure
  4. The Anatomy Of The Record Bonus Pool As The Foregone Conclusion: We Plug The Numbers From Goldman’s Facebook Fund Marketing Brochure Into Our Models
  5. Did Goldman Just Rip Its HNW and Institutional Clients Once Again? Facebook Growth Slows Pre-IPO, Just As We Warned!
  6. The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1
  7. The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly
  8. On Top Of The 2x-10x Return Had Off Of BoomBustBlog Facebook Research, Our Models Show How Much More Is Available...
  9. Is Time For Facebook Investors To Literally Face the Book (Value)?
  10. Facebook Bubble Blowing Justification Exercises Commence Today
  11. Facebook Options Are Now Trading, Or At Least The PUTS Are!
  12. Reggie Middleton breaks down "Muppetology," Face Ripping IPO's, and the Chinese Wall!
  13. Facebooking The Chinese Wall: How A Blog Has Outperformed Wall Street For 5 Yrs
  14. Why Shouldn't Practitioners Of Muppetology Get Swallowed In A Facebook IPO Class Action Suit?
  15. Shorting Federal Facebook Notes Are Not Allowed Today ?
  16. As I Promised Last Year, Facebook Is Being Proven To Be Overhyped and Overpriced!

It would seem that Facebook Finally Faces The Fact Of BoomBustBlog AnalysisProfessional and institutional BoomBustBlog subscribers have access to a simplified unlocked version of the valuation model used for this report, available for immediate download - Facebook Valuation Model 08Feb2012. I just nominally input some very generous numbers and the best case scenario chart (see the chart tab after your own individual inputs) is quite revealing, indeed! The full forensic opinion is available to all subscribers here FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update, and the latest iteration can be found here FB IPO Analysis & Valuation Note - update with per share valuation 05/21/2012. It is recommended that subscribers (click here to subscribe) also review the original analyses (file iconFB note final 01/11/2011).

 

Last modified on Saturday, 26 January 2013 09:49

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