In June 2010, I claimed that There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All. In said piece, I asserted that Google was well positioned to knock Apple off of its perch, but more importantly that Google was also best positioned to be the leader of the new paradigm - the intersection of computing, telecommunications and media.
It's now incontrovertible that I was correct on the first assertion, see Cost Shifting Your Way To Prominence Using The Network Effect, Or Google Wins - Apple, RIM & Microsoft Have ALREADY LOST! - and from an investment perspective, Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money! Now, ample evidence of the second assertion is coming to the forefront...
It is Google's Android OS that has enabled this rapid advancement in tech, and it's Google's cut throat open source business model that has provided the impetus for the rapid drop in hardware prices that accompanies the steep spike in functionality.
Judging the tepid take-up of the new Windows 8/phone platform, and the current decline in Apple cache as well as relative market share - the Windows PC platform can now read its own obituary as Android becomes the new computing standard. At the rate things are going, my other prognostications in the space will come to fore rather prematurely...
Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.
Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012
Google Final Report 10/08/2010
A couple of bits from our archives...
The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as valuation for each business line.
Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.
Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.