Sunday, 18 May 2008 01:00

Additional data on PNC

Here are some additional tidbits of info on PNC's primary lending markets to serve as an adjunct to the PNC research I released the other day. Remember, this is all to be taken against the backdrop of the macro bank research that I released as well. If you haven't notice, when I take a short position, I am quite serious about it.

PNC Financial Services Group, citing the credit crunch currently roiling the financial services industry, shut down a program in December 2007 that offered home-equity loans via third-party mortgage brokers. PNC plans to close all brokered loans by Feb 29, 2008.release a couple of days ago. This is a trend among many, if not most banks. Reduce the risk and exposure to the HELOC market, and reduce or eliminate origination through brokers.

Links:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07359/844273-28.stm

http://www.gazette.net/stories/123107/businew134530_32356.shtml

The branch network is located primarily in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Delaware.

The following are the micro trends in those areas where PNC has just concentrated (by reducing broker production to zero):

2006 2007 2008
Pennsylvania (Aggregate) Personal Bankruptcies 77,587 40000 48020
House Price Index 144.2 147.4 144.3
Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.0 5.1
Housing Permits (total units) 44,019 40,300 38,840
-% change in bankruptcies -48.4% 20.1% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -8.4% -3.6% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 2.2% -2.1% Extant LTVs increased
Philadelphia metro division Personal Bankruptcies 11,439 6,899 7,244
House Price Index 219.1 222.6 217
Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.4 4.5
Pittsburgh Personal Bankruptcies 12,577 7,731 9,275
House Price Index 158.4 164.2 159.1
Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.3 4.9
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre MSA Personal Bankruptcies 2,114 1,162 1,362
House Price Index 171.8 182.2 177.3
Unemployment Rate 5.3 4.9 5.1
New Jersy Personal Bankruptcies 48,811 30,800 36,600
House Price Index 521.4 574.6 618
Unemployment Rate 4.4 4.7 4.9
Housing Permits (total units) 38,375 35,200 31,300
-% change in bankruptcies -36.9% 18.8% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -8.3% -11.1% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 10.2% 7.6% Extant LTVs decreased (this trend is reversing though)
Washington D.C. Personal Bankruptcies 12,071 8,927 10,758
House Price Index 278.8 280.2 267.2
Unemployment Rate 3.1 3.1 3.6
Housing Permits (total units) 27,958 22,402 17,505
-% change in bankruptcies -26.0% 20.5% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -19.9% -21.9% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 0.5% -4.6% Extant LTVs increased
Maryland - Baltimore Personal Bankruptcies 11,493 5,990 7,187
House Price Index 248.9 259.9 259.4
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.00 4.60
Housing Permits (total units) 8,133 5,902 4,595
-% change in bankruptcies -47.9% 20.0% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -27.4% -22.1% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 4.4% -0.2% Extant LTVs increased
Ohio Personal Bankruptcies 133,522 70,000 84,000
House Price Index 268 277.1 286
Unemployment Rate 5.9 5.5 5.7
Housing Permits (total units) 47,401 43,050 41,310
-% change in bankruptcies -47.6% 20.0% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -9.2% -4.0% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 3.4% 3.2% Extant LTVs decreased (I expect trend to reverse though)
Delaware (Aggregate) Personal Bankruptcies 4150 2500 3100
House Price Index 451.4 496.8 531.3
Unemployment Rate 4.2 4.0 4.2
Housing Permits (total units) 8,195 7,000 6,460
-% change in bankruptcies -39.8% 24.0% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -14.6% -7.7% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 10.1% 6.9% Extant LTVs decreased (I expect trend to reverse though)
Wilmington Metro Division Personal Bankruptcies 2,025.30 1,504.80 1,700.40
House Price Index 213.2 220.2 212.5
Unemployment Rate 4.0 3.5 3.6
Kentucky Personal Bankruptcies 39,860 21,000 26,200
House Price Index 271.8 282.7 292.9
Unemployment Rate 6.1 5.8 5.9
Housing Permits (total units) 8,133 5,902 4,595
-% change in bankruptcies -47.3% 24.8% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -27.4% -22.1% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 4.0% 3.6% Extant LTVs decreased
PNC's regional profile Unemployement 4.7 4.6 4.9
-% change in bankruptcies -42.0% 21.2% Consumer financial lines pressured
-% change in housing permits -16.5% -13.2% Mortgage originations pressured
-% change in Housing price index 5.0% 2.1% Extant LTVs decreased slightly, with a general reversal in trend back to higher LTVs for the medium terms
Last modified on Sunday, 18 May 2008 01:00

3 comments

  • Comment Link Jarret Pazahanick Tuesday, 20 May 2008 08:45 posted by Jarret Pazahanick

    Reggie

    What are thoughts around all the IB for example Lehmans today revising estimates for Q2 for MS, GS etc. Is it to lower expectations so the stocks can beat or do you think something else is at play. I cant believe that good old fashioned honest research is an option :-)

    Keep up the great work

    Jarret

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  • Comment Link Ryan VanOrsdel Sunday, 18 May 2008 15:34 posted by Ryan VanOrsdel

    Sounds like another reason to be short brokers, not just pnc.

    Ryan

    I am short leh, ms, but not gs (because they have too many government hook ups)

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  • Comment Link Daniel Benyam Sunday, 18 May 2008 10:50 posted by Daniel Benyam

    Great work Reggie. I wanted to get your thoughts on why the equity markets have been going up. My only guess is that wall street is still predicting a 2nd half recovery and the equity markets are going up to reflect this expected turn around. I read somewhere that Wachovia now puts the odds of a US recession at 40%. This number was 90% a month ago. And with the tax rebate checks and the ridiculous sales retailers have had over the last two months to encourage spending, I would not be surprised to see a positive Q2 GDP number that is artificially supported by these one-time effects.

    What do you feel is the next catalyst to bring the market back in line with reality?

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