The global equity markets are in meltup mode again. I want to take this opportunity to reiterate that I am still quite bearish on much of the situation in Europe. Let's glance at the credit markets, major banks and the state of sovereign indebtedness in Spain.
image001
As you can see, Spain's 3 yr CDS spreads are the highest they have ever been. They are significantly higher than they were during the entire Lehman fiasco, and they are even higher (or at least comparable) than they were right before the EU/IMF trillion dollar bailout package was announced in conjunction with threatening those who dared to speculate against Spain's fiscal health!
spain bund spread
A
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Looking at the funding requirements Spain will have in the near future, even with the IMG/EU bailout, it looks as if there may be a restructuring in Spain's future.
Of course, all of this stress is bound to manifest itself in Spain's banks. As the market has picked up on this (luckily, after many BoomBustBloggers had positions in) Banco Santander and BBVA have paid the price. Speaking of STD...
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The Octopus Known as Banco Santander: This is a very interesting, if not highly controversial documentary. The European version of the Squid, the Octopus!!!! As my readers know, We Have Warned, and the Fissures Are Widening in the Spanish Banking System.
A quick snapshot of Bancco Santander:
| All figures in million euros except per share data |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Price-to-tangible book value |
1.8 |
|
| Price |
10.1 |
|
| Tangible BVPS |
5.7 |
|
| BVPS |
8.7 |
|
| Tangible equity |
47,180 |
|
| Common equity |
71,832 |
|
| No.of shares |
8,229 |
|
|
|
|
| Total assets |
1,110,529 |
|
|
|
|
| Geographical break-up of custumer loan portfolio |
|
| Spain |
35% |
|
| Other Europa (mainly Portugal) |
12% |
|
| United Kingdom |
33% |
|
| Brazil |
8% |
|
| Other Latin America (Mexico+Chile) |
7% |
|
| Sovereign |
5% |
|
|
|
|
| Trading portfolio |
135,054 |
12.2% |
| Debt securities |
49,921 |
|
| Customer loans |
10,076 |
|
| Equities |
9,248 |
|
| Trading derivatives |
59,856 |
|
| Deposits from credit institutions |
5,953 |
|
|
|
|
| Available-for-sale financial assets |
86,620 |
7.8% |
| Debt securities |
79,289 |
|
| Equities |
7,331 |
|
|
|
|
| Loan |
736,746 |
66.3% |
| Deposits at credit institutions |
57,641 |
|
| Customer loans |
664,146 |
|
| Other |
14,959 |
|
I have made our position on Spain clear through a complete forensic review of the state’s finances for subscribers:
Spain public finances projections_033010. An excerpt from this subscription document (subscribers, reference page 2) shows the euphoric, yet highly unrealistic optimism upon which Spain has built its fiscal austerity projections.
spain finances excerptspain finances excerpt
As suggested in the document, if one refers to the blog post Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!, you will find that not only has Spain apparently fabricated a fairy tale of potential prosperity based upon the projections of the IMF and EC, but the IMF and EC have been nothing but fairy tale projections themselves.
I have been bearish on the Spanish banking system since January of 2009 (reference Reggie Middleton on the New Global Macro – the Forensic Analysis of a Spanish Bank ), and after a trip to the Costa del Sol by way of Málaga during the boom times are shortly thereafter, the reasons should be most obvious.
We now have a rash of new Spanish bank and sovereign research which has returned between 300% and 400% over the last few months.
std opt. research time purchasestd opt. research time purchase
Needless to say, as the situation in the EU deteriorates upon the widespread dissemination of the knowledge that BoomBustBloggers have been trading off of for quarters now, I feel the options will spike in value significantly!
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 00:51
 04:58
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Relevant subscription material (subscribe here):
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional
Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note
Spain public finances projections_033010
UK Public Finances March 2010
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