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Monday, 14 June 2010 16:39

Throw a Little Conspiracy Theory into the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis and an Impending Spanish Bank Collapse and Who Needs TV For Entertainment?

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The global equity markets are in meltup mode again. I want to take this opportunity to reiterate that I am still quite bearish on much of the situation in Europe. Let's glance at the credit markets, major banks and the state of sovereign indebtedness in Spain.

image001image001

As you can see, Spain's 3 yr CDS spreads are the highest they have ever been. They are significantly higher than they were during the entire Lehman fiasco, and they are even higher (or at least comparable) than they were right before the EU/IMF trillion dollar bailout package was announced in conjunction with threatening those who dared to speculate against Spain's fiscal health!

spain bund spreadspain bund spread

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Looking at the funding requirements Spain will have in the near future, even with the IMG/EU bailout, it looks as if there may be a restructuring in Spain's future.

Of course, all of this stress is bound to manifest itself in Spain's banks. As the market has picked up on this (luckily, after many BoomBustBloggers had positions in) Banco Santander and BBVA have paid the price. Speaking of STD...



13:50

The Octopus Known as Banco Santander: This is a very interesting, if not highly controversial documentary. The European version of the Squid, the Octopus!!!! As my readers know, We Have Warned, and the Fissures Are Widening in the Spanish Banking System.

A quick snapshot of Bancco Santander:

All figures in million euros except per share data
Current Price-to-tangible book value 1.8
Price 10.1
Tangible BVPS 5.7
BVPS 8.7
Tangible equity 47,180
Common equity 71,832
No.of shares 8,229
Total assets 1,110,529
Geographical break-up of custumer loan portfolio
Spain 35%
Other Europa (mainly Portugal) 12%
United Kingdom 33%
Brazil 8%
Other Latin America (Mexico+Chile) 7%
Sovereign 5%
Trading portfolio 135,054 12.2%
Debt securities 49,921
Customer loans 10,076
Equities 9,248
Trading derivatives 59,856
Deposits from credit institutions 5,953
Available-for-sale financial assets 86,620 7.8%
Debt securities 79,289
Equities 7,331
Loan 736,746 66.3%
Deposits at credit institutions 57,641
Customer loans 664,146
Other 14,959

I have made our position on Spain clear through a complete forensic review of the state’s finances for subscribers:

File Icon Spain public finances projections_033010. An excerpt from this subscription document (subscribers, reference page 2) shows the euphoric, yet highly unrealistic optimism upon which Spain has built its fiscal austerity projections.

spain finances excerptspain finances excerptspain finances excerpt

As suggested in the document, if one refers to the blog post Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!, you will find that not only has Spain apparently fabricated a fairy tale of potential prosperity based upon the projections of the IMF and EC, but the IMF and EC have been nothing but fairy tale projections themselves.

I have been bearish on the Spanish banking system since January of 2009 (reference Reggie Middleton on the New Global Macro – the Forensic Analysis of a Spanish Bank ), and after a trip to the Costa del Sol by way of Málaga during the boom times are shortly thereafter, the reasons should be most obvious.

We now have a rash of new Spanish bank and sovereign research which has returned between 300% and 400% over the last few months.

std opt. research time purchasestd opt. research time purchasestd opt. research time purchase

Needless to say, as the situation in the EU deteriorates upon the widespread dissemination of the knowledge that BoomBustBloggers have been trading off of for quarters now, I feel the options will spike in value significantly!

00:51
News Update: Spain's Credit Rating Lowered By S&P Following Greece, Portugal

00:51
News Update: Spain's Credit Rating Lowered By S&P Following Greece, Portugal

04:58
Spain's Savings Banks Face Consolidation or Insolvency

The Sovereign Debt Crisis: The Complete Analysis

Relevant subscription material (subscribe here):
File Icon A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf
File Icon A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional

File Icon Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
File IconSpanish Banking Macro Discussion Note

icon Sovereign Contagion Model - Retail (961.43 kB 2010-05-04 12:32:46)
File Icon Sovereign Contagion Model - Pro & Institutional
File IconEuro Bank Sovereign Debt Exposure Final -Retail
File Icon Euro Bank Sovereign Debt Exposure Final - Pro & Institutional
icon Sovereign Debt Exposure of European Insurers and Reinsurers (Empty 2010-05-19 01:56:52)

File Icon Spain public finances projections_033010

File Icon UK Public Finances March 2010

Last modified on Monday, 14 June 2010 17:02
Tagged under
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  • Commercial Banks
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ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @Digikelly @pdacosta @hmtreasury @ReutersJamie many thanks, original article is here, much more to the conversation http://t.co/wCr1I59MNY

6 hours ago from HootSuite

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @islesail it matters much less for the states... the US had its own printing press, Scotland, Cyprus and Iceland do not.

6 hours ago from HootSuite

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: @BrettBina the answer to that question is contained in the subscription documents towards the end if the article.

6 hours ago from HootSuite

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