For some odd reason, perceived risk is still nowhere hear where I believe it should be. Methinks the equity markets are still underestimating the risk attached to the Pan-European (at least thus far) Sovereign Debt Crisis.
The pressure on bank portfolios requisite risk to sovereign governments should not be underestimated, reference, How Greece Killed Its Own Banks! I will be posting what I see as explicit potential pathways for the contagion to develop, but in the meantime, I urge subscribers to review the following:
- Irish Bank Strategy Note (just released!)
- Ireland public finances projections_040710
- A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective - retail.pdf
- A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective - professional
Non-subscribers should not attempt to read into the titles of subscription content. I believe that much of the whispering and pontification that I hear in the pop media is not necessarily very accurate. I have made my opinion of the entire debt debacle crystal clear, in explicit detail and in particular of the aforementioned countries, in the public domain. Please review:
The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, to date:
1. The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis – introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.
2. What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? – illustrates the potential for the domino effect
3. The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. – attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe’s sovereign nations can effect even the perceived “stronger” nations.
9. Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?
21. A Summary and Related Thoughts on the IMF’s “Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis
24. Many Institutions Believe Ireland To Be A Model of Austerity Implementation But the Facts Beg to Differ!
25. As I Explicitly Forwarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!
26. LTTP (Late to the Party), Euro Style: Goldman Recommends Betting On Contagion Risk In Portuguese, Spanish And Italian Banks 3 Months After BoomBustBlog
Latest Pan-European Sovereign Risk Subscription Research – The Good Stuff!!!
Actionable Intelligence Note For All Paying Subscribers on European Bank Research – This was certainly one very timely call!!!
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional
Ireland public finances projections_040710
Spain public finances projections_033010
UK Public Finances March 2010
Italy public finances projection
Greece Public Finances Projections
Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet
Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note