I don't think the EC's assumptions are sufficiently stringent enough.
Thus, if the EC is a little optimistic, what does that make Greece and
Of course, if you still believe in the integrity of EU government numbers, then I suggest you carefully plow through Smoking
Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer
Beware! Even the most naive and gullible of us will start to doubt...
You see, the Italian economic situation wasn't that great to begin with
since they were one of the hardest hit in the recession of 2009.
If their overstatement of the ability to pull out of this falls flat
(which it most likely would) then you will see a spike in devt service
and interest, of course accompanied with the tried and true "Nobody
could have seen this coming" statement from the BIS. No, not the Bank
for International Settlements, but the Bureau of Internal BS
(excuse my Italian).
Above, you see the Italian government projections of interest
expenditure as compared to ours. We have not fully factored in the full
potential of tax revenue collapse due to the after effect of a sharp
recession, but I do believe you get the picture.
Subscribers should reference the our Italian
Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, to date: