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I am avidly following the credit writedown scenario on my blog. I am tracking the writedown of debt by these financial institutions. And my suspicion is that Lehman and Morgan Stanley are hoping the debt problem will blow over and they won't have to write down as much as they legitimately should have done already. Only when the CRE and credit card debt starts going bad will the 2nd wave hit US financial institutions. I fully expect this to occur by Q3 or Q4. It will be interesting to see what occurs when the credit writedowns spread to other asset classes beyond subprime.