It is refreshing to have others give you a pat on the back. I have been receiving very encouraging emails from this blog's readers so I thought I would share them, on an anonomous basis, of course. The blog's consituency ranges from large institutional players and advisors to first time investors. I am enthused that my thoughts have been so well received.
Herb Greenberg of the Wall Street Journal Weekend edition and MarketWatch.com:
Herb’s Hook: The company issued a press release Saturday night focusing on its debt issues. Without specifically mentioning my column, it insisted that bankruptcy is not in its future. The release also alluded to “blogs.” The only blog I can find that has done an in-depth probe of General Growth is the insightful boombustblog.com by Reggie Middleton. (Have never spoken to him, and have no idea who he is, but a scroll through his archives shows good edginess and an impressive record on credit-related issues.)
reggie thanks again for the great work. your blog continues to stand out as superior to the many many high quality blogs I follow.NP
Your blog is great. I love it. Well, please keep up the good work! And thank you for sharing your research and thoughts.
Reggie, Please don't get arrested for spying on Freddie Mac. We all enjoy the blog too much to have you locked up. :-) Mark
Been reading your blog for over a month now... just a quick note to
let you know your willingness to share info is MUCH appreciated!
Love your blog. I need a dictionary to read it, but I love it.MK
Reggie - Thank You for sharing your analysis with the public. The curious investor & citizen absolutely does not get this from Main-Stream Media.Chuck
Reggie, You are not one to complain about long posts. Only kidding, this is great stuff so I hope you keep it coming.Mark
Great Blog, I would definitely be interested in more timely info for a fair price. Made some money on shorting MBIA so I owe you already!
CP - CA, CFA
Dear Reggie Middleton, Hope you keep blogging. I found your work to be very interesting and hope you continue to present at least the abbreviated version for free... As I am a small fish I am sure your in-depth analysis is too expensive for me, nevertheless great work and an interesting read even for a layman like me. I wish you continued success,MichaelAustria
First of all, I want to say that I think you have put together a fantastic blog. It's the best I have seen and I really enjoy reading it. Mark
Dear Mr. Middleton:
I have a background in real estate (> 20 years working experience plus graduate degrees) and especially enjoy reading your macro economic and real estate analyses.KB
104 is great stuff. Please add me to your blog list. WL
i love your housing demise blog
- Good evening reggie. I am an avid investor myself and a true believer that housing can and will revert close to the mean of around 2003-4. Thank you for your help I will definitely play the man on the street checking out builders in person if you ever need feedback. Thank you, and your right there isn't one damn analyst truly bearish?!SL
Reggie,I wandered into your blog today and was quite intrigued… I am impressed with the effort. I work for an investment firm that has rotated their efforts from equity, to the direct purchase of land assets, which is safer as the investment is secured by the land asset itself, but if the market continues to weaken for another year, anything that is purchased today, even at distressed prices, whether from Lennar or elsewhere, is going to be under water. That said, knowing when, how, where folks like Lennar might start disposing of assets will be very important.
Dear Mr. Middleton,
Great Blog. Until 5 years ago I was in Real Estate, and watched as the speculative mania drove prices to laughable levels. Keep up the good work and good luck with your Blog, very enjoyable.
________Greatest Housing Bubble Blog EVER!!! Okay, you're the champ. We were buying CDS on the homies (CTX, PHM mostly) in February at 50 bps... We were mass bearish but I figured only the lamest (WCI etc.)would be actually facing bankruptcy. Very much enjoying your in-the-know look at the financials.
One thing I haven't seen much talk about is valuation. I'm not a real
estate specialist, but I studied enough to take a few pokes at it. I
figure that rent/price is the most definitive metric, possibly along
with positive cashflow (I'd take the 30yr fully amortized cash
payment rate, about 2% above the interest rate). In the end, the
buyers won't be investment sharpies, it'll be regular people. And
regular people can only afford so much. They're already paying it in
rent. So the total monthly cash costs of a house, fully amortized
(because that's the only loan you're-a-gonna-get), will have to be
the same or less than the rent. Maybe significantly less, to pull in
those who are scared of buying (they will be then). I figure 12%-14%
cap rates -- what we saw in the early 1990s, and that was with low
Anyway, that's how I see it.
______Hi Reggie – I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your blog over the past 24 hours. Great writing and great thoughts.My background is real estate, investment banking, back into real estate (President of a small RE investment company) and now back into finance. I am CFO of a family run biz that has hedge funds, long-only funds, etc. and I am spending a bit of time researching the home builders and REITs So, like you, I have a bit of experience in finance and real estate and I really like how you think about home builders. Thanks for a good read.
Hi, Interesting Blog
I have spent all day going through your very interesting posts. I have been short the big homebuilders for about 2 years (yes, i was bit early). Anyway, great posts and I look forward to reading more.
reggie i read your very comprehensive and accurate blog today on the WSJ site. i too have seen first hand all the trouble residential builders have created here in the midwest - tons of overbuilt projects now empty and unsold. yet despite this carnage i still see commercial projects getting built as fast possible. i can't help but think these firms are creating their own bubble as well.
thanks, rich in Chicago