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Wednesday, 10 August 2011 13:25

Just As Predicted Over The Past Month, The French Bank Run Seems To Have Commenced Featured

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Attention subscribers! The French Bank run has BEGUN! Below is grab of the CDS chart of just one our subject banks as run candidate featured in the subscriber document, Italy Exposure Producing Bank Risk...

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Those who followed the recommendations in the subscriber documentFile Icon This is the introductory post to a series of trade setups for European Bank at Risk should be doing quite well. I am preparing a pro/institutional document for distribuion today, and may relasee the bank's ID to the public if it gets beat up bad enough today. For those that do not subscribe, re-read the following, for I will be writing the next leg of this saga very soon:

  1. Game Over For The European Ponzi Scheme?…
  2. France, As Most Susceptble To Contagion,…
  3. The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potential European Bank Run Trade and European Bank Run Trading Supplement

  4. What Happens When That Juggler Gets Clumsy?

  5. Let's Walk The Path Of A Potential Pan-European Bank Run, Then Construct Trades To Profit From Such

  6. Greece Is Fulfilling Our Predictions Of Default Precisely As Predicted This Time Last Year

  7. The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!

  8. The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank” Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style!

  9. Multiple Botched and Mismanaged Stress Test Have Created The Makings Of A Pan-European Bank Run

  10. Observations Of French Markets From A Trader's Perspective

  11. On Your Mark, Get Set, (Bank) Run! The D…

 Update: As illustrated in my twitter stream from yesterday...

Yesterday was a rough, tumultuous ride. I went from supreme confidence to getting bloodied up. If you remember, the BoomBustBlog traders recommended a grab for profits or a gamma hedge. I decided to go all in to FIRE sector short risk, with just a wide trailing stop to protect me. I was quite comfortable up to the last 40 minutes of the session, wherein it seems as if Bernanke's floor traders swept in to teach smart asses such as my self a valuable lesson. Fortunately, CBs can only affect the markets, they can't control them. All short biased positions flourishing today as that French bank run that I promised looks to be coming to fruition and that 830% One Week Armageddon Trade moves right along... From my Twitter feed:

ReggieMiddleton: Load Up On Bank Puts? Futile Attempt To Make Insolvent Look Solvent By Interefering With Markets, Short Ban Has Started http://bit.ly/plfrwl

16 hours ago from TweetDeck

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton:All wide trailing stops are still in place, allowing me (barring a violent gap up) a guaranteed 300% on the SPX, although it was 800%.

20 hours ago from TweetDeck

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: Nearly all of them are better traders than I, but instead of selling vol, I'm buying further up the ladder of risk at cheaper prices.

Update, my OTM cheaply bid puts are being hit. I'm getting deeper in the [short risk]  game. I will offer mini-reports on the companies in question soon

I went against the grain of both the consens and even the BoomBustBlog traders and loaded up on shorts in lieu of selling off profit and/or hedging. It was a bloody ride, and I was [mentally/emotionally] wiped after the Fed's intervention during the last 40 minutes of trading. Many of my FIRE sector and French bank positions were actually stopped out by the bell, making it difficult to even maintain a position with a semblance of risk management. I actually felt bad... You know regret, even though I moved wtih both the fundamentals and my gut. The following morning, my bold contrarian move was vindicated and we march on.

Time To Load Up On Bank Puts? The Futile…

Time To Load Up On Bank Puts? The Futile Attempt To Make The Insolvent Appear Solvent By Interefering With Market Pricing - Short Ban Has StartedTime To Load Up On Bank Puts? The Futile Attempt To Make The Insolvent Appear Solvent By Interefering With Market Pricing - Short Ban Has Started

Let's see hear... It didn't work during the last market crash. Actually, I don't think there was ever a time when it DID work. Nevertheless, let's try it anyway. You can't sell insolvent companies short! As anticipated last week in our post Didn't Anyone Notice The Seemingly Irreparable Damage To The Eurozone Last Week? Global Short Ban, Here We Come!...

The 830% One Week Armageddon Trade Comme…

The 830% One Week Armageddon Trade Commentary: Tuesday, 8-9-2011, Continuing The Easily Seen Market Crash?The 830% One Week Armageddon Trade Commentary: Tuesday, 8-9-2011, Continuing The Easily Seen Market Crash?

A timely tidbit from one of contributing BoomBustBlog traders, Eurocalypse, basically an extension of what was expoused last week in Timely Trading Tips For 8/5/2011,which I excerpt: I deeply hope your readers and yourself have benefited from the options strategies, market has been so quick; I dont know if it could be published in time. ...I'd recommend to take partial profits....

Armageddon Put Trade Up Over 500% For Th…

Armageddon Put Trade Up Over 500% For The Week, More Room To Go And More Trades To Set Up!Armageddon Put Trade Up Over 500% For The Week, More Room To Go And More Trades To Set Up!

As those who have been reading me for a while know, I have been crowing about sovereing debt default leading to a European bank collapse, causing global contagion for some time. For those who haven't, reference last years posts in the Pan-Europan Sovereign Debt Crisisseries, or The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run...

Last modified on Thursday, 11 August 2011 11:27
Tagged under
  • Questions from Reggie to Ask YOUR Advisor
  • UK and Eurozone
  • Investment Banks
  • Strategy
  • Commercial Banks
  • Global Macro

ReggieMiddleton

Website: www.gavick.com E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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More in this category: « Was A Double Dip Recession Really Hard To See Coming? Is It A Double Dip Or A Large Serving Of A Single Recession? SocGen CEO Dismisses Rumors, Says France Is Not US - He's Right, But It May Be Worse And Bank Run Can't Be Ruled Out!!! »

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