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Let's see what John Mack, Morgan's CEO says behind closed doors... In the NY Times :
Only a day earlier, Morgan Stanley defended itself from growing doubts about its future, issuing a fairly positive earnings report (Nottt!!) to ward off concerns about its health. But the fear that gripped markets after Lehman Brothers failed also enveloped the firm.
Seeking to avoid the kind of fate that led Lehman and Bear Stearns to collapse, John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, made an unsuccessful effort on Tuesday evening to persuade Citigroup’s chief executive, Vikram S. Pandit, to enter into a combination, according to people briefed on the talks.
“We need a merger partner or we’re not going to make it,” Mr. Mack told Mr. Pandit, according to two people briefed on the talks. Mr. Pandit, a former senior investment banker at Morgan Stanley, said Citigroup was not interested. It is thinking of deals it can strike with consumer banks, like buying the struggling Washington Mutual out of bankruptcy if its reported efforts to auction itself should fail, that would provide it with cheaper deposit funding. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment.
Having failed at that, Mr. Mack entered into discussions on Wednesday with Wachovia and several other banks, people briefed on those discussions said. The talks with Wachovia are preliminary and a deal may not emerge. The banks declined to comment.
Let's take a look at the Golden Boys:
Look at what I said vs what the guys that most retail investors and family offices give their money says...
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (NYSE) -114.50 |
||
| Current ABR | 2.96 | |
| ABR (Last week) | 2.79 | |
| # of Recs in ABR | 12 | |
| Average Target Price: | $200.91 | |
| LT Growth Rate |
17.40% |
|
This is the verbage (that's verbage, not garbage) that accompanies these reports via hyperlink:
li.lowa { list-style-type: lower-alpha; }
Okay bloggers and bloggettes, this doesn't make any
I know I may be a little biased on this topic |
If one were to consider the downloadable reports and analytical html posts that
I offered for free to be recommendations akin to the Zacks chart above, the following would be the
approximated cash returns.
| Blog post date |
Companies negatively Blogged | Price as of Blog Date or following trading day |
6/23/2008 | % change | Assumed Holding Period in Months | Holding Period Return | |
| 2-Sep-07 | 1-Sep-07 | len | $28.57 | $12.72 | (55.48%) | 12.57 | 103.65% |
| hov | $12.60 | $7.14 | (43.33%) | 12.57 | 81.18% | ||
| ctx | $29.12 | $14.72 | (49.45%) | 12.57 | 93.41% | ||
| dhom | $2.08 | $0.55 | (73.56%) | 12.57 | 141.62% | ||
| 1-Sep-07 | bzh | $11.29 | $6.55 | (41.98%) | 12.57 | 78.48% | |
| 1-Sep-07 | bsc | $114.13 | $9.43 | (91.74%) | 12.57 | 174.30% | |
| cfc | $19.81 | $4.25 | (78.55%) | 12.57 | 151.60% | ||
| 3-Sep-07 | mbi | $61.92 | $9.71 | (84.32%) | 12.50 | 163.15% | |
| abk | $64.63 | $5.77 | (91.07%) | 12.50 | 176.65% | ||
| 8-Sep-07 | wm | $34.74 | $2.01 | (94.21%) | 12.53 | 182.94% | |
| 16-Oct-07 | ryl | $23.96 | $23.76 | (0.83%) | 11.27 | (3.82%) | |
| 19-Dec-07 | ms | $50.08 | $21.75 | (56.57%) | 11.27 | 107.65% | |
| 8-Jan-08 | ggp | $33.90 | $20.37 | (39.91%) | 11.27 | 74.33% | |
| 19-Feb-08 | leh | $53.57 | $0.13 | (99.76%) | 6.97 | 196.94% | |
| 8-Feb-08 | ago | $21.57 | $13.04 | (39.55%) | 7.33 | 76.52% | |
| ms | $45.28 | $21.75 | (51.97%) | 7.33 | 101.36% | ||
| wfc | $31.69 | $33.43 | 5.49% | 7.33 | (13.56%) | ||
| gs | $177.36 | $114.50 | (35.44%) | 7.33 | 68.31% | ||
| wb | $34.72 | $9.12 | (73.73%) | 7.33 | 144.89% | ||
| long | 17-Mar-08 | bsc | $4.81 | $9.33 | 93.97% | 6.03 | 180.18% |
| 27-Mar-08 | kfn | $12.71 | $6.53 | (48.62%) | 5.70 | 94.67% | |
| 2-Apr-08 | jef | $17.15 | $19.31 | 12.59% | 5.53 | -27.76% | |
| 15-May-08 | pnc | $69.39 | $71.96 | 3.70% | 4.10 | -9.98% | |
| doo-doo list | 22-May-08 | bpop | $11.52 | $8.00 | (30.56%) | 3.87 | 58.54% |
| wm | $9.45 | $2.01 | (78.73%) | 3.87 | 154.89% | ||
| cfc | $4.69 | $4.25 | (9.38%) | 3.87 | 16.19% | ||
| 16-Jun-08 | ge | $28.97 | $23.39 | (19.26%) | 3.07 | 35.95% | |
| Average | Average | ||||||
| 7.82 | 75.62% |
I would like everyone to mail this post to anyone who thinks shorting investment banks should be halted. With a performance recored like the one's stated above, it is no wonder why managment finds their own investment performance to be a magnet for short sellers. Feel free to run any stock in blog table above through the Zacks.com ABR query and report your findings back to the blog.
