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Thursday, 29 July 2010 12:34

After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play

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About two weeks ago I warned my readers and subscribers not to count Microsoft out of the smart phone fray (Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet). They succumbed to big company-itis like many other monopolies, but you don't survive two technology paradigm shifts by being a slouch. Now upon the eve of the third major paradigm shift in as many decades (an unprecedented pace of popularly accepted technological advance of which relatively few grasp the potential and staggering consequences), we finally have Microsoft taking things seriously as Google and Apple continue to eat MSFT's lunch.

The ability to fully and functionally integrate with Office 2010 (as well as legacy versions), X-Box Live, and Zune Marketplace are levers that Microsoft should have used to take over the smart phone space years ago. They didn't, they fumbled the ball like a butter-laden fair maiden with extra greasy finger tips. They also, apparently, have learned their lesson. Take a gander at the capabilities illustrated in the videos below...

Windows Phone 7 XBox Live 3D Game Play Demo 00:45

01:55 Windows Phone 7 Zune Player

01:34 Windows Phone 7 Office Suite HUB

01:46 Windows Phone 7 - Emails, Events and Schedule Integration

01:32 Smart-Sensing vs Copy and Paste in Windows Phone 7

Now, to be honest, Android 2.1 on an HTC Evo can do much of this (ex. the Office compatibility with a $15 app download, smart sense sharing, etc.) save the Xbox Live stuff (this will probably be an industry best, and first) and Zune Marketplace functionality (the Zune HD marketplace is the best cloud/desktop based music solution available, it is just that it is a proprietary ecosystem). This looks to be some real competition for Android. Apple's iPhone 4 doesn't come near this level of functionality, but it does have a slick Office app, the same vendor that supplies the Android one. The only variable in this race is 3rd party/vendor app development where Apple reings supreme in the mobile space, followed by Android. Many forget that MSFT still owns the largest application pool in the world (the desktop) and if execcuted correctly can leverage it (something it has failed to do to date). MSFT has primed the pump by offering cash incentives and revenue guarantees to Windows 7 mobile developers in an attempt to play catch up.

Nokia and RIMM are in trouble, for like MSFT and unlike Apple and Google, they have had a big problem executing in the smartphone/GUI space. The iPhone and Android gains are coming at the expense of MSFT, Nokia and RIMM - and Nokia and RIMM don't have the rich pool of tech (and cash) to recreate themselves like MSFT does. MSFT has a chance in hell, at this pace Nokia and RIMM do not. They will be forced to adopt, en masse, either the Windows 7 platform, Android, or both. If they do, then their goes those Apple margins for the competition will be intense. If they don't, then RIMM files for bankrutpcy and Nokia becomes a niche player. RIMM's OS is simply inferior, period, as is their hardware. Nokia makes kick-ass hardware, and they try hard with thier newly opensourced Symbian 3, but it is constantly a step behind Android, which is brand spanking new and already the most advanced mobile OS (possible except for Windows Mobile 7). Apple has its core following and exception design, but it is getting its ass kicked in terms of functionality, though.

Examples of what is to come in the next month or two (I'm sorry, but there's nothing from RIMM worth noting that I'm aware of):

The Nokia N8 with a 12 megapixel camera with Carl Zeiss lens and optical zoom 08:12	03:59	The Altek Leo 14 MP Camera Phone with a true optical zoom, Android 2.1, and a 2.3 inch sensor (the same as in your high-end point and shoot cameras) 01:39
Rafe's Nokia N8 hands-on preview (in HD)	Nokia N8 - Promo Video	CNET Asia hands-on with the Altek Leo

And my current favorite, as well as my personal and business use phone - the HTC Evo vs the iPhone 4. If you remember, I was the first one in the blogoshpere to state withtout a doubt that the Evo totally outclasses the iPhone 4 (I feel the Cnet crew is pro-Apple biased, and they still picked the Evo over the iPhone 4). This is so much more important than Android vs Apple fanboi battles. The iPhone represents 70% of Apple's revenues and Apple is currently priced for perfection. Look at the competition coming up, factor in the fact that the Evo already kicks the iPhone's ass, and you do the math. I will offer an explicit scenario analysis of how many Android etc. phones need to sell to collapse the Apple share price (for subscribers) shortly.