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Tuesday, 13 July 2010 12:11

IMF Chief Sees Little Risk of Double Dip, then Again He Never Saw the Crisis Coming in the First Place

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From CNBC: IMF Chief Sees Little Risk of Double-Dip


DAEJEON, South Korea (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's chief reiterated on Tuesday that strong growth in Asia and Latin America made it unlikely that the global economy would suffer a double-dip recession. Last week, the IMF upgraded its 2010 global economic growth forecast to 4.6 percent from 4.2 percent due to robust expansion in Asia and renewed U.S. private demand, but kept its 2011 outlook unchanged at 4.3 percent.


"We expect 2011 to be a little lower than the level of 2010. But all this is too far from any kind of double-dip," Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told a news conference in the central South Korean city of Daejeon. "Certainly our forecast is not the forecast of a double-dip," Strauss-Kahn said.


I'd like to take this time to remind my readers of the accuracy of past IMF pronouncements, as excerpted from Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!:


I want to visually and verbally demonstrate what an absolute joke European economic estimates have been throughout this crisis, and more importantly how politicians and sovereign states are interpreting this joke in such a way that can deliver a punch line that can most assuredly end in sever global recession, or worse. This document/blog post alone should serve to sink the Euro and blow out CDS spreads for several European sovereign. Why? Because the truth hurts and the truth is not what has been coming from European sovereign states as of late.

 The IMF and the EU have been consistently and overtly optimistic from the very beginning of this crisis. Their numbers have been dramatically over the top on the super bright, this will end pretty, rosy scenario side – and that is after multiple revisions to the downside!!! We can visit the US concept of regulatory capture (see How Regulatory Capture Turns Doo Doo Deadly  and Lehman Brothers Dies While Getting Away with Murder: Regulatory Capture at its Best) for the EU, but due to time constraints we will save that topic for a later date. To make matters even worse, the sovereign states have taken these dramatically optimistic and proven unrealistic projections and have made even more optimistic and dramatically unrealistic projections on top of those in order to create the illusion of a workable "austerity" plan when in reality there is no way in hell the stated and published plans will come anywhere near reducing the debts and deficits as advertised – No Way in Hell (Hades/Tartarus/Anao/Uffern/Peklo/Niffliehem – just to cover some of the Euro states caught fudging the numbers)!  


Let's take a visual perusal of what I am talking about, focusing on those sovereign nations that I have covered thus far.  


image005.pngimage005.png



Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side.  Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revsied their forecasts to still end up widlly optimistic.

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Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad…



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The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!






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Revisions-R-US!



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and the EU on goverment balance??? Way, way, way off. 



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If the IMF was wrong, what in the world does that make the EC/EU?



The EC forecasts have been just as bad, if not much, much worse in nearly all of the forecasting scenarios we presented. Hey, if you think tha's bad, try taking a look at what the govenment of Greece has done with these fairy tale forecasts, as excerpted from the blog post "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!…



greek_debt_forecast.pnggreek_debt_forecast.pnggreek_debt_forecast.png




Think about it! With a .5% revisions, the EC was still 3 full points to the optimistic side on GDP, that puts the possibility of Greek  government forecasts, which are much more optimistic than both the EU and the slightly more stringent but still mostly erroneous IMF numbers, being anywhere near realistic somewhere between zero and no way in hell (tartarus, hades, purgatory…).

Now, if the Greek government's macroeconomic assumptions are overstated when compared with EU estimates, and the EU estimates are overstated when compared to the IMF estimates, and the IMF estimates are overstated when compared to reality…. Just who the hell can you trust these days??? Never fear, Reggie's here. Download our "unbiased, non-captured, empirically driven" forecast of the REAL Greek economy – (subscribers only, click here to subscribe) Greece Public Finances Projections Greece Public Finances Projections 2010-03-15 11:33:27 694.35 Kb. Related banking research can be downloaded here:

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Last modified on Tuesday, 13 July 2010 12:19
Tagged under
  • Global Macro
  • Current Affairs
  • UK and Eurozone

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