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Tuesday, 11 May 2010 11:43

My China Ruminations Have Come to Pass As the Country Enters a Bear Market

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From Bloomberg: China Inflation Accelerates as Loans Surge, Property Prices Rise by Record

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate.

Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 18 months, and property prices jumped 12.8 percent, the statistics bureau said in statements today. New lending of 774 billion yuan ($113 billion), announced by the central bank, was more than any of 24 economists forecast.

Asian stocks fell, with the local benchmark index entering into a bear market, and oil and copper slumped on concern the government will move to cool the fastest-growing major economy. China should focus on preventing excessive increases in asset prices and liquidity after Europe’s almost $1 trillion loan package reduced the risk of another global slump, central bank adviser Li Daokui said yesterday.

“Price pressures have been building throughout the economy, strengthening the case for higher interest rates and a stronger yuan,” said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “China is at risk of overheating, with spot fires breaking out in various parts of the economy.”

Subscribers interested in this sector should have their positions intact by now. Those that do not and are interested in my opinion should know that I believe China has a way to go. The equity market drop signals an official bear market. Non-subscribers should reference:

  • What Are the Odds That China Will Follow 1920's US and 1980's Japan?
  • Signs of a China Credit and Real Asset Bubble Are Now Unmistakable!
  • Can China Control the “Side-Effects” of its Stimulus-Led Growth? Let's Look at the Facts
  • HSBC is Performing as Expected
  • China's Most Expensive Export: Price Inflation
  • Is My Warning of the Risks of a Stagflationary Environment Coming to Fore?
  • He Who Bloweth the Bubble With Wet Lips Should Stand Back Lest Spittle and Saliva Spray Upon Ye Face
  • It Doesn't Take a Genius to Figure Out How This Will End
  • All of my warnings about China are starting to look rather prescient

Subscribers looking for explicit profit opportunities should reference:

  • A Note On Potential Short Opportunity Opinions in China
  • China Macro Discussion 2-4-10
  • A Quick Overview of the Subscriber Suggested China Play Mechel (MTLR) is Available to Subscribers
  • Part 2 of the Mechel Overview is Available
  • The Potential Effects of Remnibi Appreciation on China's Economy
Last modified on Tuesday, 11 May 2010 11:44
Tagged under
  • Global Macro
  • Research
  • Heard on the Street
  • Current Affairs
  • Capital Markets
  • Asset Securitization Crisis
  • Asia

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More in this category: « As I Warned Yesterday, It Appears the Market Is Calling the Europeans Bluff - It's Now Put Up Or Get Put Down Wells Fargo Quarterly Opinion, Q1 2010 »

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