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For some odd reason, perceived risk is still nowhere hear where I believe it should be. Methinks the equity markets are still underestimating the risk attached to the Pan-European (at least thus far) Sovereign Debt Crisis.
The pressure on bank portfolios requisite risk to sovereign governments should not be underestimated, reference, How Greece Killed Its Own Banks! I will be posting what I see as explicit potential pathways for the contagion to develop, but in the meantime, I urge subscribers to review the following:
Irish Bank Strategy Note (just released!)- Ireland public finances projections_040710
- A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective - retail.pdf
- A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective - professional
Non-subscribers should not attempt to read into the titles of subscription content. I believe that much of the whispering and pontification that I hear in the pop media is not necessarily very accurate. I have made my opinion of the entire debt debacle crystal clear, in explicit detail and in particular of the aforementioned countries, in the public domain. Please review:
The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, to date:
1. The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis – introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.
2. What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? – illustrates the potential for the domino effect
3. The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. – attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe’s sovereign nations can effect even the perceived “stronger” nations.
4. The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries
5. The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!
6. The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???
7. I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall
8. Smoking Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware!
9. Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?
10. “Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!
11. Germany Finally Comes Out and Says, “We’re Not Touching Greece” – Well, Sort of…
12. The Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word “First” Etched on the Side of Their Domino
13. As I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial Crisis
14. Once You Catch a Few EU Countries “Stretching the Truth”, Why Should You Trust the Rest?
15. Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!
16. Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe
17. Moody’s Follows Suit Behind Our Analysis and Downgrades 4 Greek Banks
18. The EU Has Rescued Greece From the Bond Vigilantes,,, April Fools!!!
19. How BoomBustBlog Research Intersects with That of the IMF: Greece in the Spotlight
20. Grecian News and its Relevance to My Analysis
21. A Summary and Related Thoughts on the IMF’s “Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis
22. Euro-Gossip Debunked, Courtesy of Trichet and the IMF!
23. Greek Soap Opera Update: Back to the Bailout That Was Never Needed?
24. Many Institutions Believe Ireland To Be A Model of Austerity Implementation But the Facts Beg to Differ!
25. As I Explicitly Forwarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!
26. LTTP (Late to the Party), Euro Style: Goldman Recommends Betting On Contagion Risk In Portuguese, Spanish And Italian Banks 3 Months After BoomBustBlog
Latest Pan-European Sovereign Risk Subscription Research – The Good Stuff!!!
Actionable Intelligence Note For All Paying Subscribers on European Bank Research – This was certainly one very timely call!!!
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – retail.pdf
A Review of the Spanish Banks from a Sovereign Risk Perspective – professional
Ireland public finances projections_040710
Spain public finances projections_033010
UK Public Finances March 2010
Italy public finances projection
Greece Public Finances Projections
Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet
Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note
