Financial, Real Estate, Stock Markets Trends and Current Affairs

  • Follow us on Blogger
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube
Tools
A+ R A- wide normal
Login
  • Skip to content
  • Home
  • SUBSCRIBE NOW!
  • Subscription content!
  • Who is Reggie Middleton?
  • Blog
  • Press Room
  • Research and performance
    • Pan-European sovereign debt crisis
    • Asset securitization crisis
    • The mobile computing wars.
  • Contact Us
Monday, 11 July 2011 12:35

Italian Bank Problems Now At The Forefront

  • font size decrease font size decrease font size increase font size increase font size
  • Print
  • E-mail
  • Comments (6)
Tweet me!

The news today continues the rumoring that Italian banks and bonds are going to see problems this year or early next year. This follows an interesting email exchange (dated the 8th) that I had concerning our European bank and soveriegn research from last year.

  • File Icon Italy public finances projection
  • File Icon Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note

Of note, please look at the charts from Mish.

Italy has clearly recently broken the 5% support, and if on a tech point of view, a quick 40bp is guaranteed, to 5.4% (the previous range was 4.6%-5% so 40bp wide), given the context, and given that German yields are going DOWN, this is the sign of something much much bigger, like what happened to Spain and perhaps Portugal. Youve seen the info as well on the recent volatility in Italian banks, and headlines shifting to Italy, I now believe the big move is happening right now. The european leaders must be shitting in their pants.

Actually even the spread France vs Germany seems to be going out of its range, thats a new thing. There can be gaps if a new bond is issued, but I've noticed a much bigger than usual gap this day, so something is going on, I've asked a trader as well if something was going on with french oats, there is definitily a significant move.

And on that note, the following Monday: European Stocks Decline on Italy Debt Concern, China Inflation

European stocks fell for a second day as concern grew that the region’s debt crisis will spread to Italy and China’s inflation surged to a three-year high. Asian shares and U.S. index futures slid.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) retreated as Italy’s second-biggest bank was downgraded at HSBC Holdings Plc.

Page 6 of our proprietary Italian banking research - (File Icon Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note) reveals what we percieved to be weakness in this bank back in February of 2010 with an increasing Texas ratio and increasig proportional NPAs.

As for China, well according to China Is In a Self-Imposed Bubble That Has Nowhere To Go But Bust! You Don't Get Something (Growth Through Stimulus) For Nothing (No Economic Consequences)...

Now, it didn't take a genius to figure out this would happen. As a matter of fact a slight dose of common sense (when was the last time you got something for nothing, really?), a little historical perspective or a BoomBustBlog subscription would have sufficed.

  • BoomBustBlog China Focus: Inflation? Thursday, May 20th, 2010
  • Can China Control the “Side-Effects” of its Stimulus-Led Growth? Let’s Look at the Facts Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010
  • What Are the Odds That China Will Follow 1920’s US and 1980’s Japan? Wednesday, March 10th, 2010
  • BoomBustBlog China Focus: Interest Rates Thursday, May 20th, 2010
  • My China Ruminations Have Come to Pass As the Country Enters a Bear Market Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

From Bloomberg: China Inflation Accelerates as Loans Surge, Property Prices Rise by Record

May 11 (Bloomberg) — China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate.

Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 18 months, and property prices jumped 12.8 percent, the statistics bureau said in statements today. New lending of 774 billion yuan ($113 billion), announced by the central bank, was more than any of 24 economists forecast.

  • Chubble (The Unmistakeable, Yet Thoroughly Argued Chinese Bubble), Unemployed/Deleveraging Shopaholics Pushing Retail Stocks & Other News Thursday, April 15th, 2010
  •  Now That the MSM and Chinese Officials Admit There Is a Bubble In China…Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
  •  Will the Emerging Markets Lead the World to New Growth? Wednesday, July 7th, 2010,

Excerpts from the HSBC forensic analysis featured in this post:

Below are the full forensic reports available for download to subscribers (click here to subscribe):

icon HSBC 170610 Professional & Institutional (554.65 kB 2010-07-07 06:23:52)

icon HSBC 170610 Retail (388.56 kB 2010-07-07 06:22:25)

Last modified on Monday, 11 July 2011 15:17
Tagged under
  • UK and Eurozone
  • Research
  • Current Affairs
  • Global Macro

ReggieMiddleton

Website: www.gavick.com E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Latest from ReggieMiddleton

  • Google Spreads Its Wings Launching A Plethora Of Game Changing Products & Initiatives Causing Analysts To Scramble To BoomBustBlog
  • Has the Web and Social Media Finally Provided The Level Playing Field That Can Obsolesce The Mainstream Media?
  • Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing Possibly The Most Powerful Co. In The World?
  • Which Banks Are We Looking At To Shop For Assets?
  • Preparing Resources To Shop For Distressed Assets As Banks Refuse To Come Clean On Near Fraudulent Reporting

Related items (by tag)

  • Google Spreads Its Wings Launching A Plethora Of Game Changing Products & Initiatives Causing Analysts To Scramble To BoomBustBlog
  • Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing Possibly The Most Powerful Co. In The World?
  • Which Banks Are We Looking At To Shop For Assets?
  • Preparing Resources To Shop For Distressed Assets As Banks Refuse To Come Clean On Near Fraudulent Reporting
  • It's Not Just Reggie Warning Irishmen Anymore As Irish Presidency of the European Council Says Capital At Risk
More in this category: « The PIIGS Nations' Problems Are Structural Not Cyclical, Thus Bailout Loans Simply Pave the Way For Asset Confiscation Down the Road Commentary From the Resident BoomBustBlog Trader: Focus on Currencies »

Add comment


Security code
Refresh

Send
Cancel
JComments
back to top
ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: Google Spreads Launches Plethora Of Game Changing Products & Initiatives Causing Analysts To Scramble To... http://t.co/lCe4U128lQ

3 days ago from Facebook

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: Google Spreads Launches Plethora Of Game Changing Products & Initiatives Causing Analysts To Scramble To BoomBustBlog http://t.co/7Hf7fdoRqr

3 days ago from HootSuite

ReggieMiddletonReggieMiddleton: Attached pic compares my Internet influence to that of Bloomberg & Reuters. Interesting considering depth of analysis http://t.co/khhWurT5xe

5 days ago from Facebook

Follow me on Twitter

powered by TweetXT!

Topics

Asia Asset Securitization Crisis Banking Blogonomics Capital Markets Commercial Banks Commercial Real Estate Current Affairs Earnings Financial Engineering Financial Services Financial Shenanigans Global Macro Heard on the Street Industrial Manufacturing Insurers and Insurance Investment Banks Law & the Government Legislation Legislation, Law & the Government Mortgage Banking Questions from Reggie to Ask YOUR Advisor Research Residential Real Estate Retail Risk Management Strategy technology Trading UK and Eurozone

Latest comments

  • Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing...
    I like ARMH as well, but as you said... 80x+ trailing PE. Even if you ...
    16.05.13 10:15
    By ReggieMiddleton
  • Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing...
    In my humble view, ARMH is a better bet and stock risk now is overall ...
    15.05.13 02:18
    By Dar
  • Short Term Gain Brings About L...
    If everyone was on board instead of being consumed in themselves they ...
    11.05.13 01:10
    By Dr. Nathanial David
  • Preparing Resources To Shop Fo...
    :lol: Well done Reggie, thanks for the post, god knows it is a sad sta...
    10.05.13 17:28
    By jynx101
  • It's Not Just Reggie Warning I...
    Buy precious metals and physically HOLD it. :-)
    08.05.13 17:38
    By Rourke
RSS
You need Flash player 8+ and JavaScript enabled to view this video.


  • Follow us on Blogger
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube

Live Spreadsheet Content

  • Online Only Subscription Content
    • Professional Level Live Spreadsheets
    • Retail Level Live Spreadsheets
    « May 2013 »
    Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
        1 2 3 4 5
    6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    13 14 15 16 17 18 19
    20 21 22 23 24 25 26
    27 28 29 30 31    

    Facebook Recommendations

    • Sitemap
    • Terms & conditions
    • All Articles
    • Docs
    © Boombustblog.com

    Forgot your password?
    Forgot your username?
    Create an account
    CC SIGN IN WITH FACEBOOK