The news today continues the rumoring that Italian banks and bonds are going to see problems this year or early next year. This follows an interesting email exchange (dated the 8th) that I had concerning our European bank and soveriegn research from last year.
Of note, please look at the charts from Mish.
Italy has clearly recently broken the 5% support, and if on a tech point of view, a quick 40bp is guaranteed, to 5.4% (the previous range was 4.6%-5% so 40bp wide), given the context, and given that German yields are going DOWN, this is the sign of something much much bigger, like what happened to Spain and perhaps Portugal. Youve seen the info as well on the recent volatility in Italian banks, and headlines shifting to Italy, I now believe the big move is happening right now. The european leaders must be shitting in their pants.
Actually even the spread France vs Germany seems to be going out of its range, thats a new thing. There can be gaps if a new bond is issued, but I've noticed a much bigger than usual gap this day, so something is going on, I've asked a trader as well if something was going on with french oats, there is definitily a significant move.
And on that note, the following Monday: European Stocks Decline on Italy Debt Concern, China Inflation
European stocks fell for a second day as concern grew that the region’s debt crisis will spread to Italy and China’s inflation surged to a three-year high. Asian shares and U.S. index futures slid.
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) retreated as Italy’s second-biggest bank was downgraded at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Page 6 of our proprietary Italian banking research - ( Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note) reveals what we percieved to be weakness in this bank back in February of 2010 with an increasing Texas ratio and increasig proportional NPAs.
Now, it didn't take a genius to figure out this would happen. As a matter of fact a slight dose of common sense (when was the last time you got something for nothing, really?), a little historical perspective or a BoomBustBlog subscription would have sufficed.
- BoomBustBlog China Focus: Inflation? Thursday, May 20th, 2010
- Can China Control the “Side-Effects” of its Stimulus-Led Growth? Let’s Look at the Facts Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010
- What Are the Odds That China Will Follow 1920’s US and 1980’s Japan? Wednesday, March 10th, 2010
- BoomBustBlog China Focus: Interest Rates Thursday, May 20th, 2010
- My China Ruminations Have Come to Pass As the Country Enters a Bear Market Tuesday, May 11th, 2010
May 11 (Bloomberg) — China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate.
Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 18 months, and property prices jumped 12.8 percent, the statistics bureau said in statements today. New lending of 774 billion yuan ($113 billion), announced by the central bank, was more than any of 24 economists forecast.
- Chubble (The Unmistakeable, Yet Thoroughly Argued Chinese Bubble), Unemployed/Deleveraging Shopaholics Pushing Retail Stocks & Other News Thursday, April 15th, 2010
- Now That the MSM and Chinese Officials Admit There Is a Bubble In China…Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
- Will the Emerging Markets Lead the World to New Growth? Wednesday, July 7th, 2010,
Excerpts from the HSBC forensic analysis featured in this post:
Below are the full forensic reports available for download to subscribers (click here to subscribe):