Comments for 0 at http://boombustblog.com , comment 1 to 9 out of 9 comments http://boombustblog.com Tue, 02 Dec 2008 10:15:10 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1724 [quote].....effective housing price inflation is still rampant. Nominal prices have dropped sharply across the country, but affordability is actually way down in many areas, due primarily to the tightening of credit. The largest barrier for home purchasers for the middle and working class is the down payment. This barrier has increased significantly after the mortgage markets came back to reality, thus even though prices may have drop by 20% or so, required down payments on those houses have increased as much as 100% to 400% (think from 5% down piggyback 2nd mortgages to 10% to 20% conventional mortgages with PMI). In addition, interest rates have moved up sharply and maintenance costs have skyrocketed with the cost of commodity inflation. This does not take into account the cost of heating homes, which may have effectively doubled....[/quote] Might be a bit of stagflation thrown in there without using housing. The low rates are all about the big banks, the economy is secondary. Foreign governments asking for higher rates to support the US$ value doesn't seem unreasonable unfortunately liquidation (as the ultimate deflation) has to occur, to find proper values, which is trying to be avoided at all costs. Maximum potential is nearing in factional reserve banking. - Razzz Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:42:45 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1656 Should do a forensic on GM and Ford. It would be real funny. What's the value of a Hummer assembly plant; less than zero. This industry was warned about oil. I expect all the US car companies going extinct like the dinausaurs. They desserve it. - Marc Authier Tue, 01 Jul 2008 05:35:53 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1654 Not just higher interest rates but also geo-political chaos and Armageddon in the Irak and now Iran. Israel bombing of Teheran (damn stupid move) and the blowup of the Ormuz canal will bring the whole complex down and the whole economis system down. Rates are going up everywhere. Rates are going up in the USA even if Bernanké says it ain't so. Rates are supposed to be low. Ah yeah ? Then why are the rates on mortgages making new highs every day ? Half of the banks in the USA are busted, dead meat, junk, trash, garbadge. KAPUT ! But don't expect Bloomberg or CNBC communicating the info. You can't get even this info in Canada. - Marc Authier Tue, 01 Jul 2008 05:13:54 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1652 Reggie, It appears that Hank Paulsen is visiting the ECB, prior to its interest rate decision. The rumour mill is insisting that the ECB will raise rates to 4.25%, much to the chagrin of Hank. The interesting rumour is that if the ECB do raise rates, that the FED will hold an EGM and also raise rates by 0.25%, within 2 weeks. This will obviously have serious market consequences for oil, forex, etc. - Chris Marshall Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:32:33 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1649 Hey Reggie Great stuff. I think there's plenty of time to "capitalize on this carnage". Banks will soon be a pariah, and none will recover quickly, even the good ones. - Mike Sirak Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:44:19 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1647 We will go through those at a later date, but they are most likely not the larger banks (or even medium sized ones) with high leverage and hi trash content. I would consider my operation to soon be strategically positioned to capitalize on this carnage soon. - Reggie Middleton Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:35:18 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1646 So what are the swift strategic ones, praytell? - a b Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:31:15 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1645 Yep! Last year when I claimed that many big banks were insolvent, I was called an alarmist. When we take a closer look at this quarter's numbers, I appear a bit more prescient. This (or the very near future) will be an oppurtune time to buy a swift, strategic banks and is a prime time for private capital (ex. hedge funds) to start taking big risks (since the traditional risk takers can't afford to do so). I detest competition (against me, that is), and the competitive fields is getting smaller and smaller. - Reggie Middleton Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:03:47 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-Basel-Meeting-in-Europe.html&Itemid=92#comment-1644 You said:"They must swallow the short term pain in order to gain long term clarity." They cannot swallow since the liquid is toxic. The analysis you presented for BOA (which I mixed with C) shows a HUGE amount of level 2 assets. Just marking them down 10% will wipe out the shareholder equity and the bank is now officially insolvent. The real write downs for level 2 probably exceed 20-30%. Given the large amount of level 2 assets compared with levels 1 & 3 BOA is hiding the toxic waste in there. The FED can no longer turn its head and ignore what shape the banks are really in once it is in black and white. This will cause a panic on Wall Street and a further reduction in perceived/real wealth on top of consumer losses in housing. - ralph allen Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:58:06 +0100