Comments for at http://boombustblog.com , comment 1 to 20 out of 20 comments http://boombustblog.com Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:45:05 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Reggie-offers-a-timely-Actionable-Intelligence-Note-in-the-food-processor-industry.html&Itemid=92#comment-3293 Hi Reggie The target price in the Sumary opinion is very diffferent from the one in the realtive valuation section. I guess the 2nd is the right one. Right? Regards - jawadqas Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:07:25 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-next-GGP-A-timely-actionable-note.html&Itemid=92#comment-3290 But I did manage to exit this AM with a 108% gain not to shabby - thank you Reggie RCH - tinytim Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:21:30 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3289 One would suppose the financial would be his turnaround picks seeing as he is quite versed in their inner workings. - nealthom Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:55:37 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3288 Yes, I figured that, and I thought it was apparent in my question. My question was to the type of stocks he is going to be looking at during the upswing. - Stolz25 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:30:50 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3287 Reg has said in the past that he has been rewarded on the upside. He is not only a short player and one day will reverse course. - YAYANKEE Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:03:14 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3286 I realize it's a bad time to be long on anything (though I did recently purchase CDE at $.45 because it's cheap and I like silver mines :) ) I had a question about this blog long term though. I'm assuming when stocks go lower you will start looking for deals on the upside, but will they be long term buy and hold stocks paying decent dividends, or growth stocks? Right now the bulk of my money is sitting on the sidelines, and I probably won't be putting it back in until I see opportunities for cheap stocks with good dividends. Still, even only following your short advice with my "play money" has earned me back well over what this blog costs. - Stolz25 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 08:23:24 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-next-GGP-A-timely-actionable-note.html&Itemid=92#comment-3285 Will the 3rd time be a charm? I of course didn't participate all the way down on 2 of your previous recommends but maybe MAC will be the one I follow all the way down. I took profits on both HIG and GGP too early, only a 60% and 90% gain :( on small positions. I sold off some other puts today so maybe I'll add more to this guy... Keep up the good work Reggie and if things keep going well I'll step up the holiday charity giving... - flapjack Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:48:04 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-next-GGP-A-timely-actionable-note.html&Itemid=92#comment-3283 "Late jumping on the bandwagon" So true, I am very thankful ( to you Reggie) as was in early at about $35.00. What about the spreads on this monster. Wow, what an illiquid set of option chains for someone just trying to get in on the action past Novembers expiration. - cube660 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:54:50 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3282 Another Reggie winner, Thanks - YAYANKEE Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:13:06 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3281 I am just adding a more comprehensive service on top of what's currently available, that's all. - Reggie Middleton Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:59:09 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3280 So, monthly subs should buy an annual plan before the changeover? - YAYANKEE Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:32 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3279 There is no need to grandfather anybody, the retail level plan will not change for existing users that I can foresee. Even if any prices did change, those who bought an extended subscription have already secured themselves for the year. The new plan is aimed at institutions and small professionals who have been asking for more guidance, guidance which I have been reluctant to give in the past. If you did not have an interest in the more expensive plans then the new plan will not be anything that you would be interested in for it would be priced on par with all of the other comparable services - read as more than a few thousand dollars per year. I will always have a lower priced plan for the small individual investor. - Reggie Middleton Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:25:17 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3278 A suggestion: All current subscribers should be grandfathered into any new plan. - YAYANKEE Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:59:29 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3277 What will happen with the current retail subscription? Same general service or will this change too? Any insight would be great as I am a new subscriber and really like what you have to offer, but there is a limit to what I can pay at this point. Thanks again for all your hard work... - bell8865 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:50:43 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-next-GGP-A-timely-actionable-note.html&Itemid=92#comment-3276 Congrats again. I do sometimes refer to your site with a few comments to try to drive people here. Hope that is proper Reggie protocol. I find it hard to be selfish when so many out there are getting slaughtered. Sometimes I see such brainless chearleading. Thanks for the reminder about the public vs. subscription side of this site. I wonder if termination fees on some leases will have any effect on cash flow early in the year on some of these REITs or will that just be a little window dressing? - scotchtom Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:12:27 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3275 From [url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/27795194]CNBC[/url]: [quote]Citigroup Inc is liquidating its Corporate Special Opportunities hedge fund after it lost 53 percent of its value last month, the Financial Times reported on its website on Tuesday. The CSO fund managed almost $4.2 billion at its peak and has a net asset value of about $58 million and debt of about $880 million, the report said, citing investors. Fund investors were not allowed to withdraw their money for about a year as the hedge fund's performance worsened, the report said. Citigroup could lose "hundreds of millions of dollars," the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The fund stumbled even though Citigroup supplied it with $450 million in credit lines and an equity infusion of about $320 million, according to the report. Citigroup on Monday announced plans to shed 52,000 jobs by early 2009 to cut costs amid a slowing global economy.[/quote] As I have stated earlier, the blog subscribers have outperformed nearly all hedge funds if they followed the research closely. - Reggie Middleton Wed, 19 Nov 2008 07:15:25 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=The-next-GGP-A-timely-actionable-note.html&Itemid=92#comment-3274 I haven't run any numbers, but looking at the press release, they are doing exactly what I said they are doing in my comment above. I said [quote]As for whether you can say management is lying or not is a matter of parsing semantics. They may be able to refinance, but if banks are paying attention (and I believe that with their current issues, they probably are) they will not refinance much of the properties that are highlighted in the pro update that I released. That means that they are forced to over encumber their few properties that are not too levereaged. That leaves the company in a much less valuable situation.[/quote] Yesterday's news: [quote] XXX today reached agreement on a $130 million refinancing of a portion of Queens Center in New York. The loan term is coterminous with the $214 million of debt on the expanded portion of Queens Center which matures on March 1, 2013. The interest rate has been locked at a 7.5% fixed rate and is expected to close in early 2009 [b][i](not closed yet)[/i][/b]. The existing loan of $89 million with a 7.11% effective interest rate will be paid off. [b][i]Cashout refinancing at a higher rate reduces portfolio value (equity) and increases financing costs for a company with a very high aggregate LTV as it is. I am familiar with Queens Center Mall (I'm a New Yorker), and it is the epitome of the working class/middle class mall that is quite vulnerable to the economic slowdown that we have coming (or is already here)[/i][/b] On another 2009 maturity, the Company has come to agreement on a $250 million refinancing of Washington Square Mall in Portland, Oregon. That seven year fixed rate loan is expected to close in December 2008 and the interest rate has been locked at 6.00%. The current loan of $128 million is scheduled to mature in February, 2009. [u][i][b]More cash out refinancing, probably at a higher rate, reducing what is already scarce equity in the portfolio and increasing debt service. This would be an opportune situation for the higher end subscriber service, for I can see the potential for gain here, and would be able to clearly articulate and offer it as opinion without acting contrary to my own interests.[/b][/i][/u] These loans are with relationship life insurance companies and a pension fund and are subject to customary closing conditions. The Company's pro rata share of the new loan proceeds in excess of the maturing debt is expected to be $100 million. [b][i]How will this be spent?[/i][/b] Upon completion of these financings and after excluding loans with built in extensions, the Company will have only $525 million of remaining 2009 loan maturities. There are no remaining 2008 maturities. After closing the two loans mentioned above, the company expect to have over $550 million of capacity available under its line of credit. [quote][/quote][/quote] Which probably has covenants that restrict debt t equity levels and has cash flow floors, among other things. Hey they only have a billion to go for next year, and a billion or so for the year after that, in an environment that is getting much worse, on CRE that is getting less valuable during one of the biggest economic slowdowns this country has ever seen. Talk about a spinmeister... I'm not saying they can't do it, but it will be unlikely (or at the very least very difficult) and quite destructive to shareholder value, as we can see in the quotes above. I also want to caution subscribers in not (mistakenly, of course) mentioning subscription content in the public comment forums, for it is quite unfair to your fellow subscribers (and me) to give away paid content info for free. I commented in this much detail in the public forums because this company has already fallen over 80%, and it is a little late to be jumping on the bandwagon, although I still do not mention it by name. I will be creating a subscribers only discussion group in the new and revamped discussion threads (check them out - [url]http://boombustblog.com/index.php/Discussion/[/url] ) where you can comment, verbosely, until your heart's content. ;D - Reggie Middleton Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:22:31 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Has-the-Web-and-the-Blogosphere-ushered-in-the-Death-of-Radio-.html&Itemid=92#comment-3272 In the normal creative destruction of capitalism, successful radio stations will emerge in all major markets as people cancel their Sirius and XM subscriptions. The current players may be toast, but new players will rise. The barriers to entry are not that great. - fedwatcher Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:10:35 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3271 Cramer, Jim = Great Source For Possible Shorts 2 Days After Air Time Kramer, Hilary = no relation to Cramer American Express = A Bigger Boat For Reggie - fedwatcher Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:01:28 +0100 http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=Performance-update-for-the-week-of-starting-11-17-2008.html&Itemid=92#comment-3270 From [url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aC70bz_6dCII&refer=home]Bloomberg[/url]: [quote] Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds capped their worst two months in at least eight years in October, as global declines in stocks and commodity prices curbed returns and investor withdrawals cut assets, according to Eurekahedge Pte. The Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, tracking more than 2,000 funds that invest globally, dropped 4.5 percent last month after falling 5 percent in September, the Singapore-based data provider said. October's drop, based on 71 percent of constituent funds reporting as of today, pushed the index down 12 percent on the year, the worst since Eurekahedge began publishing data in 2000. Investors withdrew a net total of $62.7 billion from hedge funds last month, according to Eurekahedge, shrinking the industry by $110 billion to $1.65 trillion of assets as markets tumbled amid a global recession. Assets may fall to about $1 trillion by the middle of next year, Citigroup Inc. said in a report this week. ``The industry will probably face more redemptions for a while,'' said Akihiro Nishi, executive director at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Asset Brains Co.'s investment advisory division. ``[u][i][b]The decline is a reflection that a majority of hedge funds seem to be taking risks betting more on beta,[/b][/i][/u]'' a gauge of a fund's risk that measures the volatility of its past returns in relation to the returns of the benchmark. The October loss compares with a 19 percent decline in the MSCI World Index, which tracks more than 1,700 companies worldwide, and a 22 percent drop in the Reuters Jefferies CRB Index, a benchmark for commodities. [/quote] [quote]``[u][i][b]The decline is a reflection that a majority of hedge funds seem to be taking risks betting more on beta,[/b][/i][/u]''[/quote] [b]Exactlyt,[/b] These losses are evidence ot fund managers simply heaping on heavy doses of beta (gambling on the volatility of the market moving in their favor) and show absolutely no indication of stock picking or opportunity identification skills whatsoever. They are, for the most part, overpriced glorified mutual funds that have no real liquidity. For further evidence, look at the correlation in my article above. To have such a high correlation to the broad market, you are most likely riding the coat tails of market beta. What is so alternative about high market correlation and negative returns in a down market? They should be called [i]alternatively priced[/i] investments There is nothing wrong with paying 2 and 20, it is just that you should know what you are getting for your money. - Reggie Middleton Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:19:43 +0100