This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:444 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

Read more

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:760 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

Read more

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:872 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

Read more

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:1218 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

Read more

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:2091 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

Read more

The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:2333 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

Read more

It's the Real Estate Crash That I Warned…

20-03-2017 Hits:2867 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

It's the Real Estate Crash That I Warned You About (again)

I've issued several warnings late last year warning of the real estate bubble peaking and popping. I feel I'm especially qualified to do such since I quite accurately called the...

Read more

When It Comes Time To Show and Prove, Eq…

20-03-2017 Hits:2422 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

When It Comes Time To Show and Prove, Equity Markets May Drop Hard

The markets have gotten euphoric since the Trump election, apparently because someone believed what he was selling. Take a look at the broad market jump (powered greatly by the bank...

Read more

So, Brexit Is Now Almost Official. Is Th…

20-03-2017 Hits:1426 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Note: All downloadable legacy content is for subscribers only. We currently have a sale for $11 per month for basic access. Professional subscribers are now evevated to have direct access...

Read more

In Less Than Two Weeks, Another Bitcoin …

17-03-2017 Hits:3325 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

In Less Than Two Weeks, Another Bitcoin ETF Faces SEC Deadline - It's Denial Is NOT A Bearish Event

LedgerX's "SOLIDX BITCOIN TRUST" has an approval deadline this March 30th, 2017.If it is approved, Bitcoin is due for one hell of a bump, but...  

Read more

The Fed Raises Rates While Still Baby Fe…

17-03-2017 Hits:3012 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Fed Raises Rates While Still Baby Feeding the MBS Market With Billions in Monthly Purchases

The Fed has raised rates, officially making real what was mere signaling of the end of its expansionary era... Or is it? You see, from a practical perspective, QE is...

Read more

A Bitcoin ETF or Similar Regulated Insti…

16-03-2017 Hits:3594 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

A Bitcoin ETF or Similar Regulated Institutional Vehicle is a Forgone Conclusion - What Happens Next?

Someone with over 53 years on Wall Street sent me this article from Lex of the Financial Times...

Read more

What do the RMBS reinsurers look like? Here is snapshot of the statistics to look at before AGO's earnings are announced.

 

 

 

 

 

Break-dwon of Net premium earned -AGO

Public finance

5.2

9.3%

Structured finance

26.5

47.2%

Financial guaranty direct

31.7

56.4%

 


 


 


Public finance

15.4

27.4%

Structured finance

6.2

11.0%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

21.6

38.4%

 


 


 


Mortgage guaranty

2.9

5.2%

 


 


 


Net Premiums Earned

56.2

100.0%

 

  Assured Guaranty XL Capital Security Capital Assurance Radian Group MGIC Investment The PMI RAM Holdings Old Republic International CRM Ambac Financial MBIA Triad Guaranty
 
  AGO XL SCA RDN MTG PMI RAMR ORI CRMH ABK MBI TGIC
Share price 21.6 42.7 2.0 8.3 15.2 8.9 1.6 15.2 6.6 11.0 14.6 6.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 79.5 178.4 65.3 80.4 81.8 50.5 27.2 230.4 15.9 101.6 207.7 14.9
 

                   
52 Week -High 32.0 85.7 34.6 64.1 67.4 50.5 17.3 23.2 9.5 96.1 72.4 52.6
52 Week -Low 13.3 36.3 1.5 5.4 10.4 5.4 0.8 12.2 5.0 4.5 6.8 5.3



                   
Price as % of 52-week high 67% 50% 6% 13% 23% 18% 9% 65% 69% 11% 20% 12%
 

                   
1 month return -8% -15% -12% -5% -15% 0% -2% 3% -12% -43% 3% -13%
3 month return 9% -34% -69% -34% -28% -40% -73% 1% -18% -58% -58% -24%
12 month return -20% -41% -94% -87% -77% -81% -90% -34% -20% -88% -79% -87%
 

                   
Market Capitalization (mn) 1715 7612 131 670 1247 450 43 3493 105 1116 3032 97

 

 

Break-down of Net premium earned -XL Capital Insurance Reinsurance Life Operations Total % break-up
Casualty — professional lines   354,622 66,140 420,762 24.3%
Casualty — other lines   186,190 139,224 325,414 18.8%
Property catastrophe   17,075 70,396 87,471 5.1%
Other property   165,725 205,967 371,692 21.5%
Marine, energy, aviation and satellite   141,262 35,110 176,372 10.2%
Other specialty lines   125,182 125,182 7.2%
Other   5,037 51,476 56,513 3.3%
Structured Indemnity
17,052 2,885 19,937 1.2%
Total P&C Operations
1,012,145 571,198 0 1,583,343 91.5%
Life operations:            
Other Life   98,892 98,892 5.7%
Annuity   48,347 48,347 2.8%
Total Life Operations
0 0 147,239 147,239 8.5%
Total
1,012,145 571,198 147,239 1,730,582 100.0%

 

 

 

 

AGO

XL

3Q 2007    
Gross Premiums Written $89 $1,934
  $74 $2,248
  21.3% -13.9%
     
Net Premiums Written $80 $1,385
  $73 $1,476
  9.9% -6.1%
     
Net Premiums Earned $56 $1,731
  $52 $1,855
  8.3% -6.7%
     
     
     
Total investments (mn) $2,614 $42,751
Cash and cash equivalents $25 $3,185
     
Total Assets $3,138 $60,888
     
Total Debt $347 $3,778
Net Debt $322 $593
Shareholders' equity $1,604 $11,432
     
RMBS exposure (in millions as of September 30, 2007)
By type
 
Prime $14,328  
Sub-prime $7,201  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
Prime 67%
Sub-prime 33%
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%
     
By rating

AAA/Aaa $15,679  
AA/Aa $719  
A/A $1,410  
BBB/Baa $3,629  
Below investment grade $92  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
(percentage break-down)    
AAA/Aaa 73%  
AA/Aa 3%  
A/A 7%  
BBB/Baa 17%  
Below investment grade 0%  
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%



By year

2000 and prior $227  
2001 $248  
2002 $265  
2003 $554  
2004 $902  
2005 $3,241  
2006 $8,508  
2007 year to date $7,584  

$21,529
(percentage break-down)

2000 and prior 1%  
2001 1%  
2002 1%  
2003 3%  
2004 4%  
2005 15%  
2006 40%  
2007 year to date 35%  

100%
     
Sub prime $7,200  
-International Sub-prime $40  
-US Sub-prime $7,160  
-Financial Guaranty direct (a) $6,880  
-Financial Guaranty re-insurance (b) $280  
     
Financial Guaranty Direct (a) $6,881  
AAA/Aaa $6,614  
AA/Aa $0  
A/A $6  
BBB/Baa $209  
Below investment grade $52  
     
Financial Guaranty Re-insurance (b) $280  
AAA/Aaa $194  
AA/Aa $15  
A/A $11  
BBB/Baa $21  
Below investment grade $39  
     
Financial Guaranty Direct (a) 96%
AAA/Aaa 92%  
AA/Aa 0%  
A/A 0%  
BBB/Baa 3%  
Below investment grade 1%  
     
Financial Guaranty Re-insurance (b) 4%
AAA/Aaa 3%  
AA/Aa 0%  
A/A 0%  
BBB/Baa 0%  
Below investment grade 1%  
     
By rating

AAA/Aaa   $701
AA/Aa   $347
A/A   $941
BBB/Baa   $4,299
Below investment grade   $281
Total Net Par Outstanding
$6,569
     
(percentage break-down)    
AAA/Aaa   11%
AA/Aa   5%
A/A   14%
BBB/Baa   65%
Below investment grade   4%
Total Net Par Outstanding
100%



Financial guaranty portfolio  
International Finance   $3,357
Public Finance   $714
Structured Finance   $2,499
Total
$6,569
     
(percentage break-down)    
International Finance   51%
Public Finance   11%
Structured Finance   38%
Total
100%



Company’s fixed income portfolio by credit rating
AAA   53%
AA   17%
A   17%
BBB   11%
BB & below   2%
     
Maturity profile of the fixed income securities
Less than 1 year remaining   $800
At least 1 year but less than 5 years remaining $3,452
At least 5 years but less than 10 years remaining $3,865
At least 10 years but less than 20 years remaining $1,520
At least 20 years or more remaining $3,613
Mortgage and asset-backed securities $10,970
Total
$24,219
     
(percentage break-down)

Less than 1 year remaining   3%
At least 1 year but less than 5 years remaining 14%
At least 5 years but less than 10 years remaining 16%
At least 10 years but less than 20 years remaining 6%
At least 20 years or more remaining 15%
Mortgage and asset-backed securities 45%
Total
100%



Total exposure to sub-prime and related collateral in fixed income portfolio
Sub-prime first lien mortgages   $1,193
Alt-A mortgages   $992
Second lien mortgages (including sub-prime second lien mortgages) $128
ABS CDOs with sub-prime collateral $115
Total
$2,428
     
(percentage break-down)

Sub-prime first lien mortgages   49%
Alt-A mortgages   41%
Second lien mortgages (including sub-prime second lien mortgages) 5%
ABS CDOs with sub-prime collateral 5%
Total
100%