It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse an…

22-02-2017 Hits:164 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance...

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HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses o…

21-02-2017 Hits:270 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses of the Year, We Warned Quite Thoroughly in September

Our HSBC research report released September of 2016 has proven to be 110% correct. This is the first sentence of our report: HSBC Common Equity Returns: Notwithstanding a possible boost from...

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Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management…

19-02-2017 Hits:609 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management When Dealing With Digital Assets: How to Minimize Risk of Loss

This is a video on the topic of the qualities of Bitcoin blockchain's censorship-proof attributes and how they apply in the world we live in today. It is imperative that you...

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How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in B…

16-02-2017 Hits:1127 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in Bitcoin Digital Assets - Step by Step, Part 1

I will teach novices and experts alike how to fit Bitcoin into an investment portfolio safely and with the optimum risk-adjusted potential - along with step-by-step guides, instructions and tutorials. This...

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Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's …

16-02-2017 Hits:514 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's Troubled Banks... Again! Exactly As We Warned Last Year

I've been warning about Italy's troubled banks since 2010, and last year I pushed two very detailed reports about what was essentially Italy's Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Italy is a...

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T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon'…

15-02-2017 Hits:566 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon's Network Advantages At A Lower Price Point - Uh Oh!

T-Mobile reported their Q4 2016 results yesterday, and guess what?

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Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber …

13-02-2017 Hits:594 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber $200 Million in 45 Days, Other Companies Feel It Too

Uber's CEO perceived association with Donald Trump (sitting on his tech advisory panel) has caused a viral #DelteUber campaign, resulting in over 200,000 Uber accounts deleted in 45 days. Videos of the...

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Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sp…

13-02-2017 Hits:1337 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sprint Drops Prices Through Floor: The Deadbeat Carriers are Beating Themselves To Death

Update: T-Mobile responds to Sprint & Verizon price cuts but adding additional features to its fixed rate plan. Competition continues to benefit the consumer, but net margins will be/are hovering...

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Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Tru…

10-02-2017 Hits:688 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Trump Administration, Albeit Too Late As Usual

After my many, many warnings about Donald Trump and his administration (I'll list those a little later)... It's official, Fitch has actually warned that the Trump administration is detrimental to...

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Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client…

09-02-2017 Hits:846 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client Withdrawals. I Warned You About Heteronomous Wallets!

Bitcoin.com reports "Chinese Exchanges Suspend Withdrawals for One Month": The two largest Chinese Bitcoin exchanges have suspended Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals for one month. The news follows China’s central bank...

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Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as L…

09-02-2017 Hits:892 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as Legal Tender Accelerate Cryptocurrency Mainstream Adoption?

It’s being reported by Sputnik News and other sources that Japan has declared Bitcoin to be legal tender. Unfortunately, I have not been able to quickly confirm this through Japanese...

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Deutsche Bank's Year End Analysis and Re…

08-02-2017 Hits:1082 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Deutsche Bank's Year End Analysis and Review - BoomBustBlog Style

This is our Q4 analysis of Deutsche Bank. When analyzing and valuing entities such as banks and platform-driven tech companies, perception is always key. You see, what one maverick or...

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What do the RMBS reinsurers look like? Here is snapshot of the statistics to look at before AGO's earnings are announced.

 

 

 

 

 

Break-dwon of Net premium earned -AGO

Public finance

5.2

9.3%

Structured finance

26.5

47.2%

Financial guaranty direct

31.7

56.4%

 


 


 


Public finance

15.4

27.4%

Structured finance

6.2

11.0%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

21.6

38.4%

 


 


 


Mortgage guaranty

2.9

5.2%

 


 


 


Net Premiums Earned

56.2

100.0%

 

  Assured Guaranty XL Capital Security Capital Assurance Radian Group MGIC Investment The PMI RAM Holdings Old Republic International CRM Ambac Financial MBIA Triad Guaranty
 
  AGO XL SCA RDN MTG PMI RAMR ORI CRMH ABK MBI TGIC
Share price 21.6 42.7 2.0 8.3 15.2 8.9 1.6 15.2 6.6 11.0 14.6 6.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 79.5 178.4 65.3 80.4 81.8 50.5 27.2 230.4 15.9 101.6 207.7 14.9
 

                   
52 Week -High 32.0 85.7 34.6 64.1 67.4 50.5 17.3 23.2 9.5 96.1 72.4 52.6
52 Week -Low 13.3 36.3 1.5 5.4 10.4 5.4 0.8 12.2 5.0 4.5 6.8 5.3



                   
Price as % of 52-week high 67% 50% 6% 13% 23% 18% 9% 65% 69% 11% 20% 12%
 

                   
1 month return -8% -15% -12% -5% -15% 0% -2% 3% -12% -43% 3% -13%
3 month return 9% -34% -69% -34% -28% -40% -73% 1% -18% -58% -58% -24%
12 month return -20% -41% -94% -87% -77% -81% -90% -34% -20% -88% -79% -87%
 

                   
Market Capitalization (mn) 1715 7612 131 670 1247 450 43 3493 105 1116 3032 97

 

 

Break-down of Net premium earned -XL Capital Insurance Reinsurance Life Operations Total % break-up
Casualty — professional lines   354,622 66,140 420,762 24.3%
Casualty — other lines   186,190 139,224 325,414 18.8%
Property catastrophe   17,075 70,396 87,471 5.1%
Other property   165,725 205,967 371,692 21.5%
Marine, energy, aviation and satellite   141,262 35,110 176,372 10.2%
Other specialty lines   125,182 125,182 7.2%
Other   5,037 51,476 56,513 3.3%
Structured Indemnity
17,052 2,885 19,937 1.2%
Total P&C Operations
1,012,145 571,198 0 1,583,343 91.5%
Life operations:            
Other Life   98,892 98,892 5.7%
Annuity   48,347 48,347 2.8%
Total Life Operations
0 0 147,239 147,239 8.5%
Total
1,012,145 571,198 147,239 1,730,582 100.0%

 

 

 

 

AGO

XL

3Q 2007    
Gross Premiums Written $89 $1,934
  $74 $2,248
  21.3% -13.9%
     
Net Premiums Written $80 $1,385
  $73 $1,476
  9.9% -6.1%
     
Net Premiums Earned $56 $1,731
  $52 $1,855
  8.3% -6.7%
     
     
     
Total investments (mn) $2,614 $42,751
Cash and cash equivalents $25 $3,185
     
Total Assets $3,138 $60,888
     
Total Debt $347 $3,778
Net Debt $322 $593
Shareholders' equity $1,604 $11,432
     
RMBS exposure (in millions as of September 30, 2007)
By type
 
Prime $14,328  
Sub-prime $7,201  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
Prime 67%
Sub-prime 33%
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%
     
By rating

AAA/Aaa $15,679  
AA/Aa $719  
A/A $1,410  
BBB/Baa $3,629  
Below investment grade $92  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
(percentage break-down)    
AAA/Aaa 73%  
AA/Aa 3%  
A/A 7%  
BBB/Baa 17%  
Below investment grade 0%  
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%



By year

2000 and prior $227  
2001 $248  
2002 $265  
2003 $554  
2004 $902  
2005 $3,241  
2006 $8,508  
2007 year to date $7,584  

$21,529
(percentage break-down)

2000 and prior 1%  
2001 1%  
2002 1%  
2003 3%  
2004 4%  
2005 15%  
2006 40%  
2007 year to date 35%  

100%
     
Sub prime $7,200  
-International Sub-prime $40  
-US Sub-prime $7,160  
-Financial Guaranty direct (a) $6,880  
-Financial Guaranty re-insurance (b) $280  
     
Financial Guaranty Direct (a) $6,881  
AAA/Aaa $6,614  
AA/Aa $0  
A/A $6  
BBB/Baa $209  
Below investment grade $52  
     
Financial Guaranty Re-insurance (b) $280  
AAA/Aaa $194  
AA/Aa $15  
A/A $11  
BBB/Baa $21  
Below investment grade $39  
     
Financial Guaranty Direct (a) 96%
AAA/Aaa 92%  
AA/Aa 0%  
A/A 0%  
BBB/Baa 3%  
Below investment grade 1%  
     
Financial Guaranty Re-insurance (b) 4%
AAA/Aaa 3%  
AA/Aa 0%  
A/A 0%  
BBB/Baa 0%  
Below investment grade 1%  
     
By rating

AAA/Aaa   $701
AA/Aa   $347
A/A   $941
BBB/Baa   $4,299
Below investment grade   $281
Total Net Par Outstanding
$6,569
     
(percentage break-down)    
AAA/Aaa   11%
AA/Aa   5%
A/A   14%
BBB/Baa   65%
Below investment grade   4%
Total Net Par Outstanding
100%



Financial guaranty portfolio  
International Finance   $3,357
Public Finance   $714
Structured Finance   $2,499
Total
$6,569
     
(percentage break-down)    
International Finance   51%
Public Finance   11%
Structured Finance   38%
Total
100%



Company’s fixed income portfolio by credit rating
AAA   53%
AA   17%
A   17%
BBB   11%
BB & below   2%
     
Maturity profile of the fixed income securities
Less than 1 year remaining   $800
At least 1 year but less than 5 years remaining $3,452
At least 5 years but less than 10 years remaining $3,865
At least 10 years but less than 20 years remaining $1,520
At least 20 years or more remaining $3,613
Mortgage and asset-backed securities $10,970
Total
$24,219
     
(percentage break-down)

Less than 1 year remaining   3%
At least 1 year but less than 5 years remaining 14%
At least 5 years but less than 10 years remaining 16%
At least 10 years but less than 20 years remaining 6%
At least 20 years or more remaining 15%
Mortgage and asset-backed securities 45%
Total
100%



Total exposure to sub-prime and related collateral in fixed income portfolio
Sub-prime first lien mortgages   $1,193
Alt-A mortgages   $992
Second lien mortgages (including sub-prime second lien mortgages) $128
ABS CDOs with sub-prime collateral $115
Total
$2,428
     
(percentage break-down)

Sub-prime first lien mortgages   49%
Alt-A mortgages   41%
Second lien mortgages (including sub-prime second lien mortgages) 5%
ABS CDOs with sub-prime collateral 5%
Total
100%