China's Central Bank Eliminates Margin T…

19-01-2017 Hits:534 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

China's Central Bank Eliminates Margin Trading of Bitcoin

There have been rumors that the Chinese Central Bank (PBoC - People's Bank of China) would limit or eliminate margin trading in Bitcoin. It is now official, sort of...

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Is Donald Trump Truly Successful or Born…

18-01-2017 Hits:822 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Is Donald Trump Truly Successful or Born With A Silver Spoon? An Analysis

In social media and mainstream media, I often hear Donald Trump quoted (by himself, and others) as an extremely successful, self-made man. As an entrepreneur for nearly all of my...

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As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Prac…

17-01-2017 Hits:1125 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

As I Promised, EU Is Colliding Into Practical Confines of NIRP, Bank Hemorrhaging Up Next

Nearly a year ago, I warned subscribers of consequences stemming from the ECB's negative interest rate program. Here's an exceprt from our resarch report titled European Banking Macro Issues for March...

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Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitco…

12-01-2017 Hits:1784 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Is Bitcoin Too Risky? Whenever the Bitcoin is Mentioned in Financial Pop Media, Ignorance Ensues

I hate to be the one to break bad news to you, but most of the pop media/mainstream media financial pundits that I hear and see opine on bitcoin have...

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What Happens When Rates Rise While the S…

10-01-2017 Hits:1530 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When Rates Rise While the S&P 500 Relies on Cheap Credit To Boost EPS?

So, the stock market, bond market and real estate markets are all at all-time highs. Everything is Awesome! You know better than that. You see, when the bond market wakes...

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Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toi…

10-01-2017 Hits:757 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Debt Encumbered Oil, Sovereign Soil, Toil & Trouble: Can't You Hear Seems Cracking in the OPEC Empire?

@WSJ reports Libya Ramping Up Oil Production, Threatening OPEC (supposed) Plans to lift global oil place by artificially limiting supply. This would be in violation of federal antii-trust laws in the...

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Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Pub…

09-01-2017 Hits:1077 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Ten Years Since BoomBustBlog Was 1st Published & That Initial Research Still Relevant Today

We have looked into insurance companies' performance last month in regards to our bearish real estate thesis. A small comederie of companies are suffering losses and/or declining profits as we've exected....

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The Macro Truth About The Big Bitcoin Po…

07-01-2017 Hits:1248 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bitcoin has dropped precipitously, and as is usual, we have the cacophony of instant digital currency pundits cackling about as if they had a clue. This is the inaugural post...

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To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real…

04-01-2017 Hits:921 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

To Bust or Not To Bust: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Banks are showing thin NIM, yet many of the big banks are able to boast stable if not slightly improving credit metrics. This doesn’t make sense considering the explosive growth...

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What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks…

03-01-2017 Hits:778 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens To Real Asset Lending Banks When the Real Funding Rate Appears? We're About to Find Out

During the financial crisis of 2008, money market funds who subjectively agreed to hold their NAV (net asset value) unit prices at $1 “broke the buck”. That is, the unit...

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Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing th…

30-06-2014 Hits:44886 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Stress Test on Banks’ Earnings Facing the Veritaseum UltraCoin Value Transaction Platform

My last post on the topic of disintermediation during a paradigm shift was Wall Street Should Be First To Invest In Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin, Much Of It Won't Be Here In...

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Introducing the "Unbreakable Promis…

09-06-2014 Hits:39652 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Introducing the "Unbreakable Promise" As a Method Increasing Efficiencies and Decreasing Risk

Continuing on the margin compression theme originally laid out in Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups, I illustrate mathematically how the bit...

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I am predicting and betting heavily on another large bank failure in the US and the Eurozone. Many on the site have probably already guessed what it is that I do. Well, I may be significantly epanding my job description if the financial system takes the hits that I expect it to.

A Black Swan Swims Across the Pond

European Central Bank’s (ECB) measures to inject necessary liquidity in the financial system had negligible on the interbank liquidity hoarding which led to sharp rise in inter-bank lending rates. Although the liquidity injections by ECB helped restore the expected overnight lending rates (EONIA) to near target level of 4%, there was little impact on the inter-bank borrowing rates for deposits over 3 months (EURIBOR), which stood at 70 basis points against the usual rate of 5-10 basis points over the target rate since banks were unwilling to lend each other. Similar phenomena were observed in US where steps taken by Fed like the Term Auction Facility were proven ineffective in reducing LIBOR-OAS spreads which were more dependent on counterparty risk factors such as asset-backed commercial paper spreads, and credit default swaps. Since term lending does not affect counter party risk Fed should consider other measures that affect LIBOR-OAS spreads. For example, some feel that the ECB’s policy framework for direct open market purchases of marketable assets including high-grade mortgage-backed securities could address the ongoing stress in the market. I personally believe that these securities must be allowed to bottom out. If there is any value in them, speculators such as I will swoop in to purchase them at the right price. The point of consternation is that the right price results in explicit insolvency. The banks are implicitly insolvent now, though, and everyone knows it. I am referring to both commercial banks and the non-bank entitiies that include the investment banks and brokerages - whose fates are heavily intertwined.

Fed rate cutting has also failed to improve margins in many of this nation’s regional banks, as was clearly illustrated in “The Anatomy of a Sick Bank!”. This shows that the problem is getting worse despite rampant rate cuts and the wholesale swallowing of infected assets as collateral. I believe that the banks must be allowed to fail, and it appears as if the Fed and Treasury are coming to that conclusion as well.  Today’s headline on CNBC.com:

Paulson Wants Bank Failure without Fallout – “"In my view, looking beyond the immediate market challenges of today, we need to create a resolution process that ensures the financial system can withstand the failure of a large, complex financial firm," Paulson said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Chatham House think tank in London. "To do this, we will need to give our regulators emergency authority to limit temporary disruptions. These authorities should be flexible and -- to reinforce market discipline -- the trigger for invoking such authority should be very high, such as a bankruptcy filing," he added.

He said the perception should be avoided that an institution is "too interconnected to fail or too big to fail" and added that "we must improve the tools at our disposal for facilitating the orderly failure of a large, complex, financial institution." The United States has procedures for the orderly unwinding of insolvent commercial banks with insured deposits, in which their regulators, including the Fed for smaller state-chartered banks, administer claims and control insolvency proceedings. Paulson on Tuesday said using these procedures for larger, complex institutions such as investment banks could mitigate market disruption but would not impose enough market discipline on the private sector.

And simply subjecting investment banks to normal bankruptcy proceedings "imposes market discipline on creditors, but in a time of crisis could involve undue market disruption," he said.

Knowing that Fed support is readily available could cause institutions to willingly take on too much risk, as they did in the run-up to the subprime mortgage crisis, he said. "For market discipline to constrain risk effectively, financial institutions must be allowed to fail. Under optimal financial regulatory and financial system infrastructures, such a failure would not threaten the overall system."