It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse an…

22-02-2017 Hits:165 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance...

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HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses o…

21-02-2017 Hits:270 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses of the Year, We Warned Quite Thoroughly in September

Our HSBC research report released September of 2016 has proven to be 110% correct. This is the first sentence of our report: HSBC Common Equity Returns: Notwithstanding a possible boost from...

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Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management…

19-02-2017 Hits:609 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Censorship, Autonomy and Risk Management When Dealing With Digital Assets: How to Minimize Risk of Loss

This is a video on the topic of the qualities of Bitcoin blockchain's censorship-proof attributes and how they apply in the world we live in today. It is imperative that you...

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How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in B…

16-02-2017 Hits:1127 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in Bitcoin Digital Assets - Step by Step, Part 1

I will teach novices and experts alike how to fit Bitcoin into an investment portfolio safely and with the optimum risk-adjusted potential - along with step-by-step guides, instructions and tutorials. This...

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Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's …

16-02-2017 Hits:514 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Italy Approves 1.2% of GDP to Save It's Troubled Banks... Again! Exactly As We Warned Last Year

I've been warning about Italy's troubled banks since 2010, and last year I pushed two very detailed reports about what was essentially Italy's Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Italy is a...

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T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon'…

15-02-2017 Hits:566 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

T-Mobile Has Eliminated Most of Verizon's Network Advantages At A Lower Price Point - Uh Oh!

T-Mobile reported their Q4 2016 results yesterday, and guess what?

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Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber …

13-02-2017 Hits:594 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Association with Donald Trump Cost Uber $200 Million in 45 Days, Other Companies Feel It Too

Uber's CEO perceived association with Donald Trump (sitting on his tech advisory panel) has caused a viral #DelteUber campaign, resulting in over 200,000 Uber accounts deleted in 45 days. Videos of the...

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Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sp…

13-02-2017 Hits:1337 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Verizon Unlimited, T-Mobile Upgrades, Sprint Drops Prices Through Floor: The Deadbeat Carriers are Beating Themselves To Death

Update: T-Mobile responds to Sprint & Verizon price cuts but adding additional features to its fixed rate plan. Competition continues to benefit the consumer, but net margins will be/are hovering...

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Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Tru…

10-02-2017 Hits:688 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Fitch Has Effectively Downgraded The Trump Administration, Albeit Too Late As Usual

After my many, many warnings about Donald Trump and his administration (I'll list those a little later)... It's official, Fitch has actually warned that the Trump administration is detrimental to...

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Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client…

09-02-2017 Hits:846 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Client Withdrawals. I Warned You About Heteronomous Wallets!

Bitcoin.com reports "Chinese Exchanges Suspend Withdrawals for One Month": The two largest Chinese Bitcoin exchanges have suspended Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals for one month. The news follows China’s central bank...

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Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as L…

09-02-2017 Hits:892 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Will Japan's Declaration of Bitcoin as Legal Tender Accelerate Cryptocurrency Mainstream Adoption?

It’s being reported by Sputnik News and other sources that Japan has declared Bitcoin to be legal tender. Unfortunately, I have not been able to quickly confirm this through Japanese...

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Deutsche Bank's Year End Analysis and Re…

08-02-2017 Hits:1082 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Deutsche Bank's Year End Analysis and Review - BoomBustBlog Style

This is our Q4 analysis of Deutsche Bank. When analyzing and valuing entities such as banks and platform-driven tech companies, perception is always key. You see, what one maverick or...

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So all of those CEOs who say that they expect the spreads on their levereged bubble products to narrow in the (near) future, I suggest they surf on over to the Calculated Risk blog.

This year saw the smallest increase in sales from the Winter doldrums, to the Spring selling season, since the Census Bureau started tracking new home sales in 1963.

Note: Please see my earlier post for more on new home sales.


This graph shows the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) new home sales for the last 45 years.

Usually sales increase in the spring - but not this year. The previous worst spring on record was 1982 - in the midst of a severe recession, with 30 year fixed mortgage rates at 17%, and close to double digit unemployment.

In 1982, sales picked up late in the year as interest rates declined sharply (30 year fixed rates fell from 17% to about 13% at the end of the year).

As far back as September of last year, I have been alleging that the real estate drop will be much, much worse than most pundits, analysts and investors were assuming. This was apparent as far back as the fall of 2004. The following graphics were from a post I made in October of 2007, to amplify points that I made in September.

6a00e54ed5c056883300e54f4168388834-800wi.gif

I still stand behind these predictions, and if anything they were too conservative. When I made them, many thought I was too aggressive. Does it seem that way now? Wait until you see my opinion on what this will do to the global banking system.

6a00e54ed5c056883300e54f2d31908833-800wi.gif

 As you can see, the homebuilders are tied by the nipples to residential real estate values. This just doesn't bode well for the leveraged public builders and for those will try and bottom fish in a dying industry that didn't have a publicly traded following just a few years ago.

6a00e54ed5c056883300e54f41631d8834-800wi.png

 These numbers seem to have been projected fairly accurately as well. Thus far, we're on track and pretty much exactly where I thought we would be - although I am still honing my investment thesis - its time to go global!