Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:38490 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:39295 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:38726 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:40472 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:40053 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:42609 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:27663 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:41235 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:41183 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:41423 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:43473 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:42870 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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I do not know, and I doubt anybody else does either. How much they will drop nationwide is a fools question, and to hazard a guess would be an exercise in futility due to the extremely geographic nature of the housing industry. Remember, no one lives in a nationwide home!!! There are some areas where I would bet the farm on a 20-25% drop though from peak to trough, Vegas doesn't look to good and Southern Florida is in for a lot of pain (re: condos). There are southern Florida condo developers who have been foreclosed upon because they could not sell above their cost and the land was too expensive to convert into a rental. That, in itself represents a 25% drop, retail, so it has already started happening in some areas at a rate that is higher than the historical average - and we have just started the real estate bust. Florida is an interesting area due to the inherent demand for clear water, good weather and the pretty women night life effect, not to mention favorable homestead laws. It also has laws that favor condo development for you don't need a red herring in the same fashion as cities such as NYC, hence you can pre-sell condo units with a set of plans and then finance the actual construction with a bank loan and deposits from pre-sales. Florida also allowed letters of credit for deposits, which means that you can not only get a high LTV loan up to 100% of the yet to be built condo unit, but get a letter of credit (loan) for the deposit, sometimes borrowing more than the "EXPECTED" sales price or just borrowing the down payment, then flip the contract at a premium to another speculator without even having to put money in. I have seen these flipped several times before the condo was built, each time at a higher price, then after the condo was built, flipped several time again before the person who plans to live there ever gets the keys. This sort of rampant speculation significantly over-inflated fundamental demand. Now that easy money speculator demand is gone, and prices are still sky high, developers are STILL building condos. There are probably 35,000 condos in the pipeline, with an absorption rate a mere fraction of that. So long story short, 25% is possible in some areas and some property types. The issue is that each geographic pocket is its own microcosm, and when taken into the aggregate, spells a reversal of the upward housing value trend. Those areas that shot up 700% can easily fall 25% (especially those fueled by speculation and not by real buyers), while those that increased at the historical rate or slightly better have lower to fall to revert to the mean. From my studies, after each bubble bust, the assets tend to remain higher than post bubble, but significantly lower than the peak. The caveat is that most retail and amateur buyers buy in the peak so they feel the most pain. As for valuation of builders, I calculate Beazer to be worth about $6 a share. It is very dangerous to try to buy these companies on a discount to book value, for you (and they) really don't know what book value is. The write-downs will continue each quarter until parity is reached. In addition, there are off balance sheet liabilities that drag book value down even farther, and the builders aren't as forthcoming as they could be in revealing these, ex. credit enhancement swaps for their mortgage SPCs (special purpose companies - financing shells), joint ventures with other companies containing depreciating assets (often land is purchased in JVs to spread risk, look at CBASS, the venture between MGIC and RAD do see how $1 billion investment can go down to $0 in one less than one reporting period). Then there are on balance sheet liabilities that are not easily valued, such as their mortgage arms that use warehouse credit lines to finance mortgages to sell off to the secondary markets. These mortgage that are not conforming are considered toxic waste the same secondary market that consumed them greedily just a few months ago. How far do they have to be written down to be considered suitable for prudent book valuation? Ask American Home Lenders, Luminent, New Castle, etc. While we don't know how much, you can bet the farm that many will consider it a lot. The companies that specialized in this stuff have found there loan portfolio intently worth nothing in the marketplace. Now, while fundamentally, it may have value, but in order to realize that value you either have to sell it to someone which is increasingly difficult, or somehow profit from it. I am betting that the builders will have an even greater problem selling this stuff than the pure mortgage bankers, and they will not be able to hold on to them for they are not properly capitalized for it and the stuff will contain a lot of junk, re:bad loans for the builders are aggressively pushing loans through to get their depreciating land off of their balance sheets. I know I wouldn't buy loans from these guys in there current condition. And these are decent amounts, Len pushed 48,500 mortgages, amounting to $10.5 billion in 06.