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Reinsurer recap
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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Monday, 11 February 2008

What do the RMBS reinsurers look like? Here is snapshot of the statistics to look at before AGO's earnings are announced.

 

 

 

 

 

Break-dwon of Net premium earned -AGO

Public finance

5.2

9.3%

Structured finance

26.5

47.2%

Financial guaranty direct

31.7

56.4%

 


 


 


Public finance

15.4

27.4%

Structured finance

6.2

11.0%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

21.6

38.4%

 


 


 


Mortgage guaranty

2.9

5.2%

 


 


 


Net Premiums Earned

56.2

100.0%

 

  Assured Guaranty XL Capital Security Capital Assurance Radian Group MGIC Investment The PMI RAM Holdings Old Republic International CRM Ambac Financial MBIA Triad Guaranty
 
  AGO XL SCA RDN MTG PMI RAMR ORI CRMH ABK MBI TGIC
Share price 21.6 42.7 2.0 8.3 15.2 8.9 1.6 15.2 6.6 11.0 14.6 6.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 79.5 178.4 65.3 80.4 81.8 50.5 27.2 230.4 15.9 101.6 207.7 14.9
 

                   
52 Week -High 32.0 85.7 34.6 64.1 67.4 50.5 17.3 23.2 9.5 96.1 72.4 52.6
52 Week -Low 13.3 36.3 1.5 5.4 10.4 5.4 0.8 12.2 5.0 4.5 6.8 5.3



                   
Price as % of 52-week high 67% 50% 6% 13% 23% 18% 9% 65% 69% 11% 20% 12%
 

                   
1 month return -8% -15% -12% -5% -15% 0% -2% 3% -12% -43% 3% -13%
3 month return 9% -34% -69% -34% -28% -40% -73% 1% -18% -58% -58% -24%
12 month return -20% -41% -94% -87% -77% -81% -90% -34% -20% -88% -79% -87%
 

                   
Market Capitalization (mn) 1715 7612 131 670 1247 450 43 3493 105 1116 3032 97

 

 

Break-down of Net premium earned -XL Capital Insurance Reinsurance Life Operations Total % break-up
Casualty — professional lines   354,622 66,140 — 420,762 24.3%
Casualty — other lines   186,190 139,224 — 325,414 18.8%
Property catastrophe   17,075 70,396 — 87,471 5.1%
Other property   165,725 205,967 — 371,692 21.5%
Marine, energy, aviation and satellite   141,262 35,110 — 176,372 10.2%
Other specialty lines   125,182 — — 125,182 7.2%
Other   5,037 51,476 — 56,513 3.3%
Structured Indemnity
17,052 2,885 — 19,937 1.2%
Total P&C Operations
1,012,145 571,198 0 1,583,343 91.5%
Life operations:            
Other Life   — — 98,892 98,892 5.7%
Annuity   — — 48,347 48,347 2.8%
Total Life Operations
0 0 147,239 147,239 8.5%
Total
1,012,145 571,198 147,239 1,730,582 100.0%

 

 

 

 

AGO

XL

3Q 2007    
Gross Premiums Written $89 $1,934
  $74 $2,248
  21.3% -13.9%
     
Net Premiums Written $80 $1,385
  $73 $1,476
  9.9% -6.1%
     
Net Premiums Earned $56 $1,731
  $52 $1,855
  8.3% -6.7%
     
     
     
Total investments (mn) $2,614 $42,751
Cash and cash equivalents $25 $3,185
     
Total Assets $3,138 $60,888
     
Total Debt $347 $3,778
Net Debt $322 $593
Shareholders' equity $1,604 $11,432
     
RMBS exposure (in millions as of September 30, 2007)
By type
 
Prime $14,328  
Sub-prime $7,201  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
Prime 67%
Sub-prime 33%
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%
     
By rating

AAA/Aaa $15,679  
AA/Aa $719  
A/A $1,410  
BBB/Baa $3,629  
Below investment grade $92  
Total Net Par Outstanding $21,529
     
(percentage break-down)    
AAA/Aaa 73%  
AA/Aa 3%  
A/A 7%  
BBB/Baa 17%  
Below investment grade 0%  
Total Net Par Outstanding 100%



By year

2000 and prior $227  
2001 $248  
2002 $265  
2003 $554  
2004 $902  
2005 $3,241  
2006 $8,508  
2007 year to date $7,584  

$21,529
(percentage break-down)

2000 and prior 1%  
2001 1%  
2002 1%  
2003 3%  
2004 4%  
2005 15%  
2006 40%  
2007 year to date 35%  

100%
     
Sub prime $7,200  
-International Sub-prime $40  
-US Sub-prime $7,160  
-Financial Guaranty direct (a) $6,880  
-Financial Guaranty re-insurance (b) $280  
     
Financial Guaranty Direct (a) $6,881  
AAA/Aaa $6,614  
AA/Aa $0  
A/A $6  
BBB/Baa $209  
Below investment grade $52  
     
Financial Guaranty Re-insurance (b)