home tags Search Feed
There is no recession, the economy is in fine shape, and business is strong!!!

Written by Reggie Middleton

Friday, 26 October 2007

I am so convinced of the title, that I have compiled a list to illustrate. Of course, I didn't include the home builders in this list since they have obviously been hit, and I didn't include the banks earnings (since they have obviously not been doing well), and I didn't include the mortgage insurers results (since they have been hit hard), and I didn't include the foreclosure rates (since those are dismal), and I didn't include REOs (with CountryWide becoming the largest holder of single family housing in the country), and I didn't include... Well, you get the message. So let's see what I did include in my compilation to show how far away from recession we are...

My team's latest forecast of real estate price trends 4 years forward (the entire table may not fit in this post, width-wise):

	3Q2007	4Q2007	1Q2008	2Q2008	3Q2008	4Q2008	1Q2009	2Q2009	3Q2009	4Q2009	2010	2011	2012
West	-5.30%	-4.90%	-3.90%	-4.10%	-3.80%	-3.10%	-2.70%	-2.30%	-2.30%	-2.00%	-2.50%	-3.10%	-2.20%
North	-4.10%	-3.80%	-2.80%	-2.10%	-1.80%	-0.90%	-0.80%	-0.70%	-0.30%	0.20%	0.40%	3.70%	4.10%
Texas	-0.80%	-0.20%	0.20%	0.30%	0.70%	1.30%	2.70%	5.40%	10.80%	21.50%	30.30%	24.20%	19.40%
Southeast	-6.00%	-6.20%	-3.90%	-2.60%	-1.40%	-1.20%	-0.40%	-0.50%	-0.60%	2.00%	-2.70%	-8.50%	-9.30%
Average	-4.10%	-3.80%	-2.60%	-2.10%	-1.60%	-1.00%	-0.30%	0.50%	1.90%	5.40%	6.40%	4.10%	3.00%

----- EXTENDED BODY:

Banking Jobs Lost - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, the consulting firm, said in August the U.S. financial industry had announced 87,962 job cuts this year, 75 percent more than in all of 2006. It said 35,830, or 41 percent, relate to housing market problems.

Bank of America, the No. 2 U.S. bank, said it was cutting 3,000 jobs, a majority of them in corporate and investment banking, and the rest elsewhere. The cuts amount to 1.5 percent of the bank's 198,000-person work force.

Bear Stearns said on Oct. 3 it was cutting 310 jobs in its mortgage origination businesses as part of a reorganization of its mortgage operations. It had said in August that it cut 240 subprime lending jobs.

Credit Suisse on Sept. 26 cut 150 jobs in its mortgage-backed securities business.

Capital One, an independent credit card issuer, said on Aug. 20 it will eliminate 1,900 jobs. In June, it announced plans to cut 2,000 jobs.

Citigroup said on April 11 that it would eliminate 17,000 jobs and move an additional 9,500 jobs to lower-cost locations.

Countrywide Financial, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, plans to cut 10,000 to 12,000 jobs, or up to 20 percent of its work force. It said on Oct. 16 that it expected a $125 million to $150 million pretax restructuring charge from the move.

HSBC Holdings' U.S. mortgage unit said on Sept. 5 it would cut about 600 jobs.

JPMorgan Chase, the No. 3 U.S. bank, is cutting 100 jobs across its global credit markets unit, or about 10 percent of that group's head count, people familiar with the situation told Reuters on Oct. 11.

Lehman Brothers Holdings said it will fire another 850 workers, or about 3 percent of its work force. The cuts come after the investment bank said it was cutting 1,600 jobs.

Morgan Stanley said on Oct. 17 it was cutting about 300 jobs in its institutional securities division, mostly in mortgages. On Oct. 2, it said it would restructure its residential mortgage business and cut about 600 employees.

National City, the ninth-largest U.S. bank, said on Oct. 24 it is eliminating 2,500 jobs, 1,200 more than it disclosed the month before, after it merged its home equity and mortgage lending units.

SunTrust Banks, the seventh-largest U.S. bank, said on Aug. 20 that it plans to eliminate about 2,400 jobs by the end of 2008.

Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, said on Aug. 28 it plans to eliminate about 2,000 of 2,600 jobs at the Richmond, Virginia headquarters of its Wachovia Securities brokerage unit as part of the company's acquisition of A.G. Edwards. The company also said recently it plans to eliminate about 200 investment banking jobs, or roughly 5 percent of its 3,900-strong investment banking operations.

Washington Mutual, the largest U.S. savings and loan, is laying off 1,000 employees as it copes with slumping housing demand.

Wells Fargo, the fifth-largest U.S. bank, said on July 26 it would cut 170 jobs