Posts Tagged ‘Commercial Banks’

I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!

Friday, August 27th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

So, S&P finally gets around to Cutting Ireland’s Rating on the Cost of Bank Support, as reported by CNBC:

Ireland’s financial headache worsened on Wednesday after Standard & Poor’s cut its credit rating in a move criticized by the country’s debt management agency.

The premium investors demand to hold Ireland’s 10-year bonds over German bunds has been steadily widening in the past few weeks and remained elevated at 327 basis points on Wednesday.

The spread finished at 330 bps on Tuesday, its highest level since the Greek financial crisis broke in May.

Brenda Kelly, an analyst at CMC Markets, said she expected Irish borrowing costs to climb on the back of S&P’s move.

“I think we are going to have to an awful lot more in interest payments,” she said.

Although Ireland has raised virtually all of the 20 billion euros of long-term debt targeted for 2010, S&P’s move may make it more difficult for the country’s banks to extend the maturity of their funding later this year and eventually wean themselves off a state guarantee on their debt.

S&P cut Ireland’s long-term rating by one notch to ‘AA-’, the fourth highest investment grade, and assigned the country a negative outlook late on Tuesday saying the cost to the government of supporting the financial sector had increased significantly.

Rating agencies have been steadily hacking away at Ireland’s credit rating and S&P’s is now on a par with Fitch and one notch below Moody’s, which cut its rating to Aa2 last month.

S&P said it expects Ireland will need to spend 90 billion euros to support its banking system, up from its prior estimate of 80 billion euros including capital used to improve the solvency of financial institutions and losses taken from loans the government acquired from banks.

Ireland’s budget deficit ballooned to 14 percent of gross domestic product, the highest in Europe, last year due to the cost of propping up nationalized lender Anglo Irish ANGIB.UL and it could climb higher if Dublin injects an additional 10.05 billion euros into the bank…

I’m not going to say I told you so, but I did throw some pretty strong hints…

On April 29th, I was quite blatant in stating , urging my susbscribers to review the File Icon Irish Bank Strategy Note and the File Icon Ireland public finances projections that I made available earlier that month. You see, unlike many of the pundits in Europe who state that Ireland has moved beyond the worst of its problems and is an example of how austerity should work, I believe that Ireland is in very, very big trouble and I outlined the reasoning behind such in my very first posts on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.

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Spain Reports 20%+ Unemployment, a Structural Problem That May Persist For Some Time

Friday, July 30th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

As I have warned ad nauseum, the problems in Europe are being signicantly underestimated. From CNBC: Spain Jobless Rate up to 20.09 Percent

Spain’s unemployment rate rose to a 13-year high of 20.09 percent in the second quarter, the government said Friday, as the job market lagged behind an economy that has barely managed to break out of recession. Though the rate increased from 20.05 percent in the first three months of the year, the  National Statistics Institute (external link) said the number of people working actually increased. Still, the overall unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 1997 because of a large increase in the work force. Spain crawled out of recession in the first quarter of this year after nearly two years of economic contraction and has been a focus of concern in recent months, as investors fretted that its bloated deficit and  troubled banking sector could necessitate a Greek-style bailout. The statistics institute said in Friday’s report that there are now 4.645 million unemployed people in Spain, more than half a million higher than a year ago.

Proposed austerity measures on top of a collapsed bubble in the real estate market and banks that are playing hide the sausage with NPAs are not going to help the unemployment rate any. From our proprietary report on Spain’s public finances, Spain public finances projections_033010  (click here to subscribe):


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BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo – All Members of the Doo Doo 32, Get a Negative Watch from Moody’s

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

From CNBC: BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo Outlook Negative: Moody’s

Moody’s on Tuesday changed its outlook on Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo to negative, from stable, citing lessened government support for the institutions under new U.S. regulations.

A negative outlook indicates the banks are more likely to be downgraded over the next 12 to 18 months. The credit ratings agency also said it may cut its ratings on ten regional banks on reduced government support.

Moody’s has boosted its debt and bank deposit ratings on large financial institutions by between 3 and 5 notches since early 2009 on the assumption that they would receive government support in a time of trouble because of the risks they pose to other financial firms and the economy as a whole.

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Jim Rogers Channels This Blog on CNBC?

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Click the link for the CNBC video below and fast forward to 2:48 and you will see Jim Rogers offer the 10 second version of Reggie Middleton’s take on the banking stress tests. Absolutely priceless!

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A New Spin on Bank Fraud: Banks Defrauding Their Investors, Auditors and Regulators, Which Also Helps Delinquent Mortgagees

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Last week, I made clear to my readers and subscribers that the bank malaise is not over, despite what may appear to be encouraging moves by the executive staff. Housing prices are still on their way down, save temporary blips from government bubble blowing and the outright concealment of non-performing assets by banks, see Anecdotal Evidence That Banks Are Hiding Depressed High End Real Estate. Now, many may see this as consipiracty theory, which is why I always included hard analysis behind my posts. After a Careful Review of JP Morgan’s Earnings Release, I Must Ask – “What the Hell Are Those Boys Over at JP Morgan Thinking????”

The boys over there at the “Morgan’ appear to be partying like it was 1999, releasing all types of reserves and provisions (which coincidentally padded a very weak earnings quarter) as if I didn’t make it “Very Clear In March, US Housing Has a Way to Fall”:

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Here’s More Proof of the Sheer Lunacy of the European Bank Stress Tests: Passed Banks are Already Trying to Collect on Defaulted Claims of European Nations

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Much of the mainstream media has carried articles that were at least somewhat skeptical of the European bank stress tests. I think being “somewhat skeptical” is about 5 leagues below where they should be, but its a start. After all, the EU actually passed a bank that is literally insolvent. I don’t want to pound on the actual insolvency of this German bank, since I already went into detail on this topic earlier, but it is imperative that my readers understand the depth and extent of the travesty (or lies) that are being promulgated in the name of “transparency”. I ridiculed the basis of these stress tests last week (European Bank Investors, Don’t Look Now – You’ve Been Hoodwinked, BamBoozled…), but now it is time to show you that these tests which assume the biggest threat to the European banking system (sovereign default or restructuring) will not occur and capriciously passes banks that not only will be hampered in the future, but are actually quite insolvent (by nearly any realistic means measurable) now, have actually proven that the risks of restructuring and/or haircuts are virtually guaranteed. This leaves the results of the stress tests a farce, at best and an insult to capitalism and common sense.

The tests assumed that there would not be a sovereign default. The tests also refused to mark “hold to maturity” inventory to market, despite the fact that said inventory may be permanently impaired. The logic? Europe will not allow a default. But how about a restructuring? And how will Europe handle more than one sovereign coming to the restructuring trough? I’ve already demonstrated the damage that can be done in A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina.

Price of the bond that went under restructuring and was exchanged for the Par bond in 2005

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Price of the bond that went under restructuring and was exchanged for the Discount bond

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Recent Press Coverage and Media Appearances and Awards

Sunday, July 25th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Recent Press Coverage and Media Appearances & Awards

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Anecdotal Evidence That Banks Are Hiding Depressed High End Real Estate

Sunday, July 25th, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Why are Banks Hiding High End Residential Real Estate? Courtesy of the Real Estate Channel:

  • Without the FTB tax credit, the housing market is receiving artificial demand and price support from the FHA loan guarantees and banks sitting on mortgages of homes once valued at $300,000
  • Banks in areas that were severely damaged by the downturn in domestic real estate (Cook County, Illinois, Miami-Dade County, Florida, Orange County, California) have significant inventories of homes worth more than $300,000 that they will not put on the market, even after foreclosures lasting more than 2 years

According to Bruce Krasting over at Zero Hedge, the FHA is “Officially Broke” anyway: FHA – “We are Officially Broke” After perusing the data above, one would wonder why… (Link to FHA/FR)

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European Bank Stress Test Joke: This Insolvent Euro-Bank and Group of Central Bankers Met at a Bar and…

Friday, July 23rd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

This post will outline the second bank stress test joke of the day with the first one detailed in ““. According to the MSM news outlets, Germany’s PostBank, along with practically every other German bank except clearly insolvent and near defunct HyPo have passed the stress tests. So have French top banks, Portuguese, Italian, Finnish and Swedish banks. What? You’re not laughing yet? You  know how we feel about the Spanish banks, so I will not go there right now (but will leave a trail of links at the bottom of this post for the uninitiated). What we are going to do now is focus on the farce that is passing Germany’s Post Bank, a clearly insolvent (1.4x over insolvent) institution whose only potential (and that’s just a potential) saving grace is the possibility of a forced takeover by a larger bank.

Let’s revisit a few pages from the professional subscriber document, file icon Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis – Pro & Institutional (subscribers can follow along on pages 3, 4, and 5):

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European Bank Investors, Don’t Look Now – You’ve Been Hoodwinked, BamBoozled…

Friday, July 23rd, 2010 by Reggie Middleton

Personally, I consider the European bank stress tests to be a farce; an attempt to Bamboozle, Hoodwink and Dis-inform any who would be naive enough to drink the Kool-Aid – not to dissimilar from the US bank stress tests (see You’ve Been Bamboozled, Hoodwinked and Lied To! Here’s the Proof). CNBC reports that “NO” default scenarios will be played out, which I find to be rather unrealistic since the reasons why the banks are enjoying restricted access to the capital markets is the fear of default! Think long and hard about this…

You are showing signs of HIV, and nobody wants to come near you, make love to you or lend long term to you due to the symptoms of this most unpleasant and deadly disease despite the many proclamations you have made to the contrary. You decide to set the record straight by visiting a prominent doctor to diagnose your issues and placate your associates. The doctor comes up with a prognosis, but simultaneously declares that:

  • AIDS (the syndrome), and death have not and will not be considered because the doctor will not let any of his patients catch AIDS or die! Whaaatt!!!??? Does the doctor really have that much control over who catches diseases and who dies? [Analogous to refusing to even consider the potential for default on sovereign debt, as if no European country has ever defaulted before – many have, and many probably will in the future as well). This analogy actually serves us quite well for the ECB has very limited control over who gets sick and how the contagions (both financial and economic) are transmitted (see below).
  • The patient will be assumed to operate between 96% and 57.8% efficiency. This is, of course, a problem if the patient truly is terminally ill, for his health should receive significantly more of a…. Well, a haircut.
  • Only the patient’s mucous membranes and other very short-lived tissue will be considered for examination, for the patience plans on keeping other body parts for the long term, hence they should not be affected by fluctuations by any potential illness. Yes, I know this statement doesn’t make any damn sense, but then again neither does the ECB excluding hold to maturity and portfolio inventory from the stress tests either. It really doesn’t matter how long you plan on holding said items, if they are permanently impaired in value, then they are permanently impaired, Right???!!! I know, we won’t even consider a default scenario, but since countries do default.. If a default occurs, or more realistically a restructuring, then wouldn’t longer term inventory be impaired – Permanently???!!! In the post A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina I demonstrated how much damage was done to the Argentinian bond holders after their restructuring. Too bad the Argentinian investors didn’t have the all-powerful ECB there to declare that restructuring and default are not part of the rules, hence not allowed. The following is the price of the bond that went under restructuring and was exchanged for the Par

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