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Below, please find an udpate to the work published on WFC. See the Doo Doo 32 Drill Down and the Forensic Analysis for a background of my viewpoints on this company.

Wells Fargo & Company – Q2 2008

Income statement analysis

Wells Fargo’s non-interest expense increased by a nominal 2% to $5,860 mn in 2Q2008  due to increased salary (6%), occupancy cost (8%) and other expenses (6%) partially offset by decline in incentive compensation (10%) and operating lease (31%). As a result of increased revenue growth the banks efficiency ratio improved 51.1% in 2Q2008 from 57.9% in 2Q2007. Overall the banks net income declined 23% to $1,753 mn or (0.53 per share) in 2Q2008 compared with $2,279 (or 0.67 per share) in 2Q2007 as mounting provisions continued to create pressure on earnings.

Credit metrics

Wells Fargo credit metrics continued to deteriorate in all aspects as seen from the table above. In 2Q2008, 90 days loans past due (an indicator of future charge-off and delinquency) increased 9.1% q-o-q and 63.9% y-o-y. Loans past due 90 days and non-performing assets represented a significant 3.7% and 10.9% of shareholder’s equity at the end of 2Q2008, rising alarming questions about the magnitude of potential impact relating to worsening credit situation. As a result of rising charge-off, Wells Fargo had increased its provisions to $3.0 bn (0.77% of average loans) in 2Q2008 compared to 0.7 bn (0.22% of average loans). Wells Fargo had changed its off policy from 120 days to 180 days for its home equity portfolio enabling it to defer $265 mn charge-off in 2Q2008. However despite this change in charge-off policy, net charge-off increased to 1.55% of average loans in 2Q2008 compared to 0.87% in 2Q2007.

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written by Robert in Perth, Australia, July 19, 2008

Reggie,

You nailed the money portion of the Wells Fargo Reverse Cinderalla (ie Riches to rags) story as usual.

Down here 2 of the Big 4 cartel banks have been caught holding the toxic CDS parcel (see-article "ANZ is the local bank most at risk" - The Australian newspaper 18 July 2008.

The ANZ Bank is exposed for $23-24 Billion Australian dollars (exchange rate is near parity - you need $1,03 Australian to buy one US dollar) and only a 10% loss is anticipated.

Is this estimate in the ball park?

Guess what? 50% of all open CDS contracts are with monoline insurers and the ANZ Bank took a $226 million hit when ACA Capital was downgraded in February, 2008.

Your blog should be compulsory reading for Australia's fast asleep regulators who did not know that the biggest insurance company here, HIH Limited was inso;vent to the tune of $5 billion before it collapsed in September 2001.

Your analysis is stunningly accurate.

All the best,

Robert

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written by Marc Authier, July 19, 2008

Your regulators are not asleep. These sun of guns have received their instructions to be nice to the banks. Regulators ? Clowns and carpets that bank can wipe the feet on. They never regulate anything. Anyways it's the same in the USA. The SEC went against the naked shorts this week. But they won't go against the banks. They just pray that the problem will go away and the losses like by magic disssapear. Regulators are not asleep, there are damn sheeps and cowards. They have received orders to shut up and turn a blind eye. The USA manufactures the shit and the rest of the world buys it. Only 10% loss ? Smells fishy. Yeap they are hoping a miracle is around the corner. Harry Potter regulators.

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