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Wednesday, 12 December 2007 | Reggie Middleton

I have decided to keep pumping as much of my preliminary research as possible to the blog for free. Please read and accept the disclaimer below. In addition to the disclaimer, I want to add that this...
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The next GGP??? A timely actionable note

Friday, 14 November 2008 | Reggie Middleton

The hard core fundamental anlalysis of this blog has been paying off in spades for many subscribers - creating real wealth, preseving significant wealth, and actually creating bonuses for Wall...
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Another Name Brand bites the BoomBust!

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Tuesday, 18 November 2008

From Bloomberg: Falcone's Harbinger Capital Faces Potential $200 Million Loss on Navistar

Harbinger Capital Partners, the New York-based hedge-fund firm run by Philip Falcone, has almost $200 million in potential losses on bets that Navistar International Corp.’s stock price would rise.

Harbinger bought swap contracts on 4.55 million shares of Navistar that would gain if the truck maker’s shares rose above certain prices, according to a Nov. 14 regulatory filing. Warrenville, Illinois-based Navistar has dropped 63 percent in New York trading this year to $19.86, about two-thirds below the price where the trades are profitable for Harbinger.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 18 November 2008 )
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Performance update for the week of starting 11/17/2008

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Tuesday, 18 November 2008

  In the vein of comparing the blog's research to name brand hedge funds, see "Another Name Brand bites the BoomBust!", I have decided to update the performance charts and announce the availability of a new instiutional program that will allow a new higher tier subscriber level to gain access into my outlook in regards to the positions that I have taken. Below you will find the most recent results to all of the performance comparisons that I have made in the last couple of months.

Last Updated ( Wednesday, 19 November 2008 )
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Has the Web and the Blogosphere ushered in the Death of Radio?

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Monday, 17 November 2008

Radio broadcasting companies, an out-of-favor sector with investors and media consumers, are extremely leveraged and facing difficult business environment.
With the advent of the internet, audio related media distribution barriers to entry have come down dramatically. The dissemination of news has encountered a paradigm shift with the advent of blogs, including the one owned by yours truly. With arguably better content, easier and more customizable access, and a rapidly changing business model that is difficult to grasp by the traditional MSM (mainstream media) management, the Web has literally painted a R.I.P. sign on the coffin covers of many a once might radio station holding company. Are TV station companies next? Did this truly have to come to pass, or was the changing of the guard inevitable? Should Bloomberg, or Murdoch or Curtco Media buy a stake in BoomBustBlog.com to hedge their future?

 

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 18 November 2008 )
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The next GGP??? A timely actionable note

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Friday, 14 November 2008

The hard core fundamental anlalysis of this blog has been paying off in spades for many subscribers - creating real wealth, preseving significant wealth, and actually creating bonuses for Wall Streeters in a time fluttering pink slips. I simply implore that all who have benefitted from the research make the effort to give back to those who are in need and are less fortunate.

Now that I have my PSA (public service announcement) out of the way, we can move on. Several banks have contacted me over the course of the past year concerning my GGP research. Some of them offered many multiples of the highest level of paid subscription to gain custom access to the content on the blog (at that time I did not sell access). Let me be blunt, this preview of the report to come next week is easily worth several thousand dollars by itself. I used the same methodolgy that I used in finding GGP and analyzing it. Last week I gave a sample comparison of REITS(icon REIT comparison update - Retail (818 kB 2008-11-07 12:27:49)), and this actionable alert is an early preview of the full forensic analysis to come next week for professional subscribers. Frankly, this company is in trouble, despite the proclamations of management, and can easily see the same fate as GGP.

Last Updated ( Friday, 14 November 2008 )
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Another contrarian name brand trade bears fruit

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Tuesday, 11 November 2008

When I first introduced my American Express research in June, I expected (and was not disappointed) many to tug the name brand line in saying that Amex was the cream of the crop, they deal only with high end consumers, large business accounts, yada yada yada. Name brand marketing, it seems, fools many investors.

If one were to peruse the reseach in the Amex link above, you will see where practically each and every admonition has come to fruitition. Hopefully, this in combination with the events of the recent past should convince readers that hard core fundamental and forensic research trumps name branding every time - all the time. As with my Goldman Sachs research, Morgan Stanley research, and many other name brands, I was (to my knowledge) the only one bearish on these companies at the beginning of this year where the share prices were still high enough to profitably short or get out of (if you have a "long only" mandate).

From Bloomberg:

American Express Co. won Federal Reserve approval to convert to a commercial bank, gaining access to funds as credit losses build and sales of asset-backed bonds plummet.

The Fed waived a 30-day waiting period on the application ``in light of the unusual and exigent circumstances affecting the financial markets,'' according to a statement released today in Washington. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues unanimously voted for the action.

Credit-card holders failed to repay loans in the third quarter at almost twice the rate of a year earlier, New York- based American Express said last month. With defaults rising along with the unemployment rate, October marked the first month since 1993 that card companies were unable to sell bonds backed by customer payments.

``That business has totally dried up,'' said Frederic Dickson, who helps oversee about $20 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. ``If I were a shareholder, it wouldn't send a very warm and fuzzy message to me,'' he said today in a phone interview.

American Express, the largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, joins former investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, which were allowed by the Fed in September to become commercial banks.

 

 

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 11 November 2008 )
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