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The first forensic analysis of the next step in my investment thesis - Navistar

Thursday, 21 August 2008 | Reggie Middleton

This is the first foresnic analysis of the next step of my investment thesis. We have analyzed and tracked the real property bust, the real property financing bust, the real property...
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The BoomBustBlog Boat Ride

Monday, 11 August 2008 | Reggie Middleton

I aim to set this blog apart from other financial, macro and investment blogs. One way is to put extremely unique content into the blogosphere. Another way is to bring the virtual to the actual....
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Early morning scan of events

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Monday, 31 March 2008

For those that haven't noticed, I've begun sharing my early morning news and data routine with the blog. Here goes Monday moring EST.

Is the Fed running out of ammo?

Reserve Aggregates (Mil. $ sa)
Two Weeks Ended Mar 26:  Latest
Week
 Prev.
Week
Change
 Year
Ago
Change
Total Reserves: 44,477 43,057 40,328
Nonborrowed Reserves 1 - 61,788 - 17,174 40,268
Required Reserves2 39,856 41,654 38,643
Excess Reserves: 4,621 1,403 1,684
Borrowed Reserves (are those I banks hittin' the piggy bank too hard?)
80,000 60,000 60
Free Reserves 3 - 75,379 - 58,597 1,624
Monetary Base 829,648 823,819 812,763
 

1 Fed supply of permanent reserves provided.
2 Demand for reserves to back deposits.
3 Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window borrowings
other than extended credit. Free reserves are a shorthand method of
determining the degree of ease of Fed policy, or when they are negative net

 

If so, Trichet, King May Support Fed as Ammunition Runs Low: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has so far shouldered most of the burden of saving the global economy and financial markets. He may be about to get more help. With the credit crisis entering its ninth month, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet are on the verge of new steps to spur lending and increase liquidity, say economists at Lloyds TSB Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Interest-rate cuts may be next if the crisis persists.

``We're inching closer to the great global monetary easing,'' says Joachim Fels, co-chief economist at Morgan Stanley in London. Lloyds predicts King's next step will be to accept more types of collateral for loans. Trichet will pump more money into banks, RBS forecasts. Such measures would take Europe's two biggest central banks further down the path laid out by Bernanke this month.

The Fed chairman needs all the help he can get. In addition to lowering interest rates at the fastest pace in two decades, Bernanke has committed as much as 60 percent of the $700 billion in Treasury securities on his balance sheet to expand lending. The Fed has also offered a $29 billion loan against illiquid securities to assist the buyout of failing securities firm Bear Stearns Cos...

Rate Cuts

Meanwhile, the Fed has already lowered its target overnight rate by 3 percentage points, to 2.25 percent, since August. Unless the gap between the Fed and the European banks narrows, it risks fueling inflation in the U.S., slowing economies elsewhere and causing banks more pain, Deutsche Bank economists said in a March 24 report. "Stresses in markets have reached new heights,'' the report said. ``The significant difference in the approach to managing what is now a truly global financial crisis could aggravate the problems and cause more severe damage to the world economy.''

That has some analysts predicting that Trichet and King will have to cut rates sooner rather than later: Morgan Stanley's Fels predicts the U.K. central bank will cut in the next quarter, and the ECB will follow later in the year. "The ECB and BOE have stubbornly refused to cut rates, although extreme stress is visible in European financial and commercial real-estate markets,'' says Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at New York investment-research firm Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. ``This intransigence is unlikely to last much longer.''

When I hear words like the great global monetary easing, my mouth waters. For this is an opportunity for easy money. Do you remember the Great Macro Experiment? Unless central banks allow us to go through some real pain to purge the sysetm (something which is apparently highly unlikely, especially in a presidential election year), the world is condemned to these extreme boom bust cycles. This is good for me since I won't have to change the name of my blogSealed, and more importantly this befits my investment style quite well, allowing me the opportunity to do my thing. Unfortunately, I feel it wreaks havoc with global economic stability and health, but hey, what the hell do I know.

Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 September 2008 )
 

Blog related news

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Written by Reggie Middleton   
Monday, 31 March 2008
 Short covering rallies  according to Bloomberg are responsible for GGP's growth  (of course, since the fundamentals are getting worse, not better) and Defaults on Insured Mortgages Rise 38% in February. Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose 38 percent in February for the 14th straight month as record U.S. foreclosures forced the industry to reimburse lenders for more bad loans.

Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 September 2008 )
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