For those that haven't noticed, I've begun sharing my early morning news and data routine with the blog. Here goes Monday moring EST.
``We're inching closer to the great global monetary easing,'' says Joachim Fels, co-chief economist at Morgan Stanley in London. Lloyds predicts King's next step will be to accept more types of collateral for loans. Trichet will pump more money into banks, RBS forecasts. Such measures would take Europe's two biggest central banks further down the path laid out by Bernanke this month.
The Fed chairman needs all the help he can get. In addition to lowering interest rates at the fastest pace in two decades, Bernanke has committed as much as 60 percent of the $700 billion in Treasury securities on his balance sheet to expand lending. The Fed has also offered a $29 billion loan against illiquid securities to assist the buyout of failing securities firm Bear Stearns Cos...
Rate Cuts
Meanwhile, the Fed has already lowered its target overnight rate by 3 percentage points, to 2.25 percent, since August. Unless the gap between the Fed and the European banks narrows, it risks fueling inflation in the U.S., slowing economies elsewhere and causing banks more pain, Deutsche Bank economists said in a March 24 report. "Stresses in markets have reached new heights,'' the report said. ``The significant difference in the approach to managing what is now a truly global financial crisis could aggravate the problems and cause more severe damage to the world economy.''
That has some analysts predicting that Trichet and King will have to cut rates sooner rather than later: Morgan Stanley's Fels predicts the U.K. central bank will cut in the next quarter, and the ECB will follow later in the year. "The ECB and BOE have stubbornly refused to cut rates, although extreme stress is visible in European financial and commercial real-estate markets,'' says Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at New York investment-research firm Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. ``This intransigence is unlikely to last much longer.''
When I hear words like the great global monetary easing, my mouth waters. For this is an opportunity for easy money. Do you remember the Great Macro Experiment? Unless central banks allow us to go through some real pain to purge the sysetm (something which is apparently highly unlikely, especially in a presidential election year), the world is condemned to these extreme boom bust cycles. This is good for me since I won't have to change the name of my blog
, and more importantly this befits my investment style quite well, allowing me the opportunity to do my thing. Unfortunately, I feel it wreaks havoc with global economic stability and health, but hey, what the hell do I know.