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Wednesday, 12 December 2007 | Reggie Middleton

I have decided to keep pumping as much of my preliminary research as possible to the blog for free. Please read and accept the disclaimer below. In addition to the disclaimer, I want to add that this...
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The next GGP??? A timely actionable note

Friday, 14 November 2008 | Reggie Middleton

The hard core fundamental anlalysis of this blog has been paying off in spades for many subscribers - creating real wealth, preseving significant wealth, and actually creating bonuses for Wall...
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Front Page arrow tagsarrow UK and Eurozone

Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog

A digital diary of my global economic outlook combined with a focus on fundamental and forensic analysis

Tag >> UK and Eurozone

UK and EurozoneLegislation, Law & the GovernmentGlobal MacroFinancial ShenanigansCurrent AffairsConsumer FinanceCommercial BanksCapital MarketsBanking 3 Nov 2008 12:00 AM
Reggie Middleton
Corporate welfare by Reggie Middleton Comment (7)

I was very clear in warning about the "everyman for himself" phenomenon back when the first US bailout package was announced in the US. All of the money given banks are going straight to the bank's coffers and nowhere else. It is a farce  to believe that banks will act against their own self interest when given money. PNC took the money and bought a bank with a risky loan portfolio to boost deposits, AIG is paying margin calls with its taxpayer money, JP Morgan and Merrill chiefs flat out said, "No, I will not lend the new money out", and the Euro banks are also designing special textual diagrams to display their views on handling the new low interest rates they are benifititing from by way of the UK government. See what I just pulled off of the memorandum of understanding between HSBC and the government:

…………………../´¯/)
………………..,/¯../
………………./…./
…………./´¯/’…’/´¯¯`·¸
………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
……..(’(…´…´…. ¯~~/’…’)
………\……………..’…../
……….”…\………. _.·´
…………\…………..(
…………..\………….\

 

  HSBC Defies Brown, Signals It Won't Pass On All of Rate Cuts to Customers

From Bloomberg:








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UK and EurozoneResearchIndustrial ManufacturingGlobal MacroCurrent AffairsConsumer Finance 26 Oct 2008 12:00 AM
Reggie Middleton
Global Recession - an economic reality by Reggie Middleton Comment (12)

Global Recession - an economic reality 

Part 28 of Reggie Middleton on the Asset Securitization Crisis

The repercussions of the historical events that unfolded on Wall Street in September 2008 are being felt across the global financial system-banks and insurers across the Atlantic and Pacific are beginning to implode at an increasingly rapid pace, held together by the glue of their respective government bailout packages. The crisis, thought to be restricted to US markets, has spread to their European and Asian counterparts, freezing credit markets in the region - with the emerging markets on tap. It looks like the investment banking era on Wall Street has ended with Lehman Brothers going bankrupt, Merrill Lynch being sold off to Bank of America, Bear Stearns imploding over a weekend and the conversion of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to bank holding companies. Nearly each week sees a new bank filing for bankruptcy (TGIF, its not - OMGIFDICFA). The latest to join the list are Washington Mutual and Wachovia Corporation. Washington Mutual's banking assets were taken over by JP Morgan Chase for US$1.9 billion, while Citigroup made a US$2.2 billion bid for certain banking assets of Wachovia. The crisis has spread to Europe as reflected by the nationalization of Fortis Bank-the governments of Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands provided €11.2 billion to bail out the bank. The FDIC Troubled Bank List grew from 90 to 117 in Q2 08, indicating that more banks could head toward bankruptcy. These developments completely shook the confidence in the banking system, as jittery depositors queued to withdraw their deposits. What has emerged is a credit crunch, making it increasingly difficult for borrowers (individual and corporate) to fund their requirements (see The Butterfly Effect  and the The Butterfly is released!). As a result, economic activities are slowing down.


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UK and EurozoneLegislation, Law & the GovernmentCommercial BanksBlogonomics 24 Oct 2008 12:00 AM
Reggie Middleton
Doo Doo 32 n the news, again by Reggie Middleton Comment (12)

In the news today...

The Doo Doo 32 pops back up:

Paulson Planning to Buy Stakes in Regional U.S. Banks to Unfreeze Credit 

"The decision to buy stakes in more lenders comes after some of the mid-sized American financial institutions report mounting losses. National City Corp., Ohio's largest lender, Oct. 21 posted a wider loss, put aside more money for unpaid loans and announced plans to eliminate 4,000 jobs. Its third-quarter net loss widened to $729 million, from $19 million a year earlier.

SunTrust Seeks Funds

SunTrust Banks Inc., Georgia's largest lender, posted a 26 percent decline in third-quarter profit yesterday. The bank's board authorized the sale of $1.6 billion to $4.9 billion in preferred shares to the U.S. Treasury, Chief Executive Officer James Wells said in a conference call."

HSBC shares down after Morgan Stanley cuts price

Shares of HSBC fell more than 5 per cent to a five-year low on Friday after Morgan Stanley cut its target price amid a negative outlook for emerging markets growth....

If you remember, after the rally last week, I went shopping in the UK and EU - See "Do you who's going to screw who next 013.jpgweek?": I spent the majority of my Wednesday of last week spreading my bearish positions further around the European banks. The balance was catering to my beautiful, yet demanding 2 year old daughter, the only 2 year old I know who forces her dad to go clothes shopping - seriously! She is also one of the main reasons I decided not to open up the hedge fund after spending SOOOOOO much money getting it set up. I was putting her down for her afternoon nap (a perk - and bain - of working from home) about a month ago and she looked me in the eyes and said "I wuv yoo too, Daddy!" Now, here I am cuddling my little girl to sleep, while half of Wall Street and Park Avenue was yelling at traders and kissing client ass trying to beg them not to withdraw funds during a time when EVERYONE was losing money. I thought to myself, "Hey,they can keep the extra cash and the headaches that go along with it. My girl needs a hug". For the record, I have two boys (7 and 16, both work on the blog) as well, both raised the same way with Dad slaving from home on a 24 hour work day. When I was younger, I was actually ashamed of not having the Wall Street office, with many service providers looking down upon the home office entrepeneur - not to mention a stay-at-home dad! Enter a little wisdom, age and common sense and I was able to confidently say F@#$%' em, it's the results that matter, and results are what I produce.

For those international blog members, notice how it seems as if I am always awake? Well, I am... as I type this post at the usual 3 am time slot in an effort to get 2 hours of sleep before I see my kids off to school.

Let this post be not only about the degradation of the UK/EU banking system, but about having balance in your life as well. This is starting to truly become a blog about my personal thoughts and opinions. Alas, I digress. Let me give you a glimpse into some of the additional reasons why I went shopping.

Bloomberg's take :

U.K. stocks dropped, led by financial and energy companies, as the government reported Britain's economy shrank more than forecast in the third quarter, diminishing the outlook for earnings. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, declined the most since Sept. 11, 2001, after Morgan Stanley cut its share- price estimate for the company by 25 percent. Barclays Plc fell after it was lowered to ``neutral'' from ``buy'' at UBS AG, which said earnings and dividends at the U.K.'s second-biggest bank may be hurt as it raises capital...

``Corporate earnings aren't looking good,'' said Andreas Nigg, a Zurich-based fund manager at Vontobel Asset Management which oversees $39 billion. ``In previous recessions, analysts' estimates have usually been too optimistic. It looks like this is also the case now.''

Britain's economy shrank in the third quarter, the government said today, as the global financial crisis ravaged industries from banking to construction, evidence that the country is in the grips of its first recession since 1991...

HSBC slid 8.4 percent to 737.25. Morgan Stanley lowered its earnings estimates for HSBC by 3 percent to $1.11 a share for this year and 10 percent to $1.05 for 2009.

``We question how long HSBC shares can continue to tread water in the face of falling earnings and increased pressure on capital,'' Morgan Stanley analysts led by Anil Agarwal wrote in a report today.

`More Difficult'

Barclays fell 4.1 percent to 209.25. ``A more difficult outlook for the U.K. economy has contributed to lower than previously expected top-line growth and higher impairment losses,'' London-based UBS analyst John-Paul Crutchley wrote in a note today. ``3.6 billion pounds of new equity prior to the end of March 2009 will lead to further dilution to earnings per share.''

Barclays is likely to cut its dividend next year as profit declines, Crutchley said, predicting a 2009 dividend of 12 pence and earnings of 24.36 pence a share, reduced from a previous estimate of 43.59 pence.

HBOS Plc, the U.K. bank that agreed to be bought by Lloyds TSB Group Plc, slid 9.3 percent to 66 pence. Aviva Plc, the U.K.'s biggest insurer, declined 8 percent to 253 pence.

The Riskiest Bank on the Street is a little late to the HSBC party (professional subscribers can download the full HSBC analysis from the Downloads section). This coincides with the third installment of my "Name Brand" buster series of posts (see the preview) that actually mark the name brand's performance to market. I have decided to include James Cramer's thestreet.com calls in the analysis as well (actually, it is being contributed by a reader). I also have a lot of macro commentary and research coming online very soon. Should be an interesting weekend.

I just got a newsflash (7 am) that the DOW futures dropped 500 points. The Dow is actually a meaningless marketing moniker, but the broad market is probably priming itself for a similar drop, thus I will continue blogging throughout the day. Next up, an insurance sector update (HIG) for subscribers and a macro report on why the global recession is here already - no need to guess. I may also have those blog vs bank vs newsletter comparisons for you as well. You guys and gals will be getting your money's worth today.



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