Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog

  In the vein of comparing the blog's research to name brand hedge funds, see "Another Name Brand bites the BoomBust!", I have decided to update the performance charts and announce the availability of a new instiutional program that will allow a new higher tier subscriber level to gain access into my outlook in regards to the positions that I have taken. Below you will find the most recent results to all of the performance comparisons that I have made in the last couple of months.

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For those who were doubtful of my research and stated positions in the big name brand banks, I think a recap is in order. I have taken strong bearish positions on a few of the most revered name brands, to the dismay of people who should really know better than to doubt my investment acument. Before we get to the performance of my contrarian name brand play, let's peruse a recent Bloomberg article extract:

Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Identify Bank Loans  

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.

``The collateral is not being adequately disclosed, and that's a big problem,'' said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., where he co-manages $17 billion in bonds. ``In a liquid market, this wouldn't matter, but we're not. The market is very nervous and very thin.''

Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.

The Fed made the loans under terms of 11 programs, eight of them created in the past 15 months, in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

 I can give you a few guesses where that money probably went. Just peruse the performance post and mark the commercial and investment bank names on the list, starting with the  Riskiest Bank on the Street and the Golden Boys mentioned below, then work your way down to The Anatomy of a Sick Bank!. I am sure some of those big name brands are in a lot more trouble than they let on.

Now, on to how my contrarian name brand plays have been doing...

Goldman Sachs with the name brand conscious (yet financially unconscious) investors saying they are too well connected to fall, smarter than the rest, best name brand on the street, blah blah, blahhh. For non-subscribers, here is a dated Goldman analysis available for free download   professional_gs_report_sample 350.12 Kb. Of course, 6 or 7 months later the sell side banks are dropping estimates on Goldman and Morgan, but you heard it in the beginning of the year from me. GS is currently in the mid 70's, down from one hudred and eighty dollars when the first report came out.

From Bloomberg... Goldman, Morgan Stanley Earnings Estimates Reduced by JPMorgan Nov ... ... before converting to bank holding companies in September, had their fourth-quarter and 2009 earnings estimates cut by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Goldman may lose 58 ...

From Reggie Middleton...

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James Cramer: marked to market!

This is most likely the final installment in my "Name Brands aren't all they're cracked up to be" series. This string of articles has seen me compare my (a lowly blogger's) research model investment results with the biggest and most influential names and indices in the US stock market. For those who feel that the research model is too hypothetical (nonsense actually, since it is the most well documented of its kind that I have seen), I have included a snapshot of my own proprietary trading account. I will get to Cramer in a minute, but before I do, let's peruse the roadmap of how we got here. Here is the synopsis to date:

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  In the past week or two I attempted to debunk the "'Name Brand' is the best" mentality of so many individual and INSTITUTIONAL investors enamored by the marketing machine that is the Wall Street banks, brokers and Greenwich hedge funds. In attmepting to do so I have released this blog's research model results, a glimpse into my proprietary trading, a backgrounder on my investing style, and a comprehensive comparison of both the blog and my results as compared to all major (and minor) hedge fund indices.

Now, I will be moving on to the big money center banks and brokerages (or at least what's left of them). Some time tomorrow, I will release a comprehensive comparison of my blog's statc research model against the timed buy/sell recommendations from all of the big bank/brokerages.No excuses made for disparities in budget, resources, political conflicts of interest, etc. Be aware that I refrained from giving explicit buy and sell advice (except in the case of Bear Stearns where I inadvertantly shared my opinion), which has handicapped the blog's results in cases where stocks have dropped and then risen again, ex. PNC. If you click the "proprietary trading" link above you can get an illustration of the results possible when this blog's research is used to actively manage positions.