This is my proprietary Z score analysis of USG Corp. I will be posting a summary and full forensic report on this company for subscribers very soon. The debt rating is a rough draft of my own proprietary system. It needs some work, but I included it anyway.
| USG Corp | | | | | | | | |
| Z-score analysis - Interpretation of Z-score | | | | | | | | |
| Above 2.99 | Indicates financial soundness | | | | |
| Between 1.81 and 2.99 | Indicates warning signals - potential financial problems | |
| Below 1.81 | Indicates serious financial trouble and a high probability of bankruptcy |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Debt Rating (Stand alone entity) | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Working Capital / Total Assets | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Retained Earnings / Total Assets | (0.10) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.08) | (0.09) | (0.07) | (0.04) | 0.00 |
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| EBIT (trailing 12 months) / Total Assets | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.04 | (0.04) | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
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| Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities | 0.36 | 1.09 | 1.74 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 0.98 |
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| Sales (trailing 12 months) / Total Assets | 0.84 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.22 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Z-score ( Standalone entity) | 1.62 | 2.71 | 2.40 | 1.61 | 1.68 | 1.92 | 2.10 | 2.26 |
| Debt rating | D | CCC | CCC- | D | D | CCC- | CCC- | CCC- |
| Debt Rating (Stand alone entity) | 4Q-06 | 1Q-07 | 2Q-07 | 3Q-07 | 4Q-07 | 1Q-08 | 2Q-08 | 3Q-08e | 4Q-08e |
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| Working Capital / Total Assets | 0.37 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
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| Retained Earnings / Total Assets | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| EBIT (trailing 12 months) / Total Assets | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.00 | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.04) |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| MV of Equity / BV of Total Liabilities | 1.29 | 1.80 | 1.89 |
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