Looking At Mastercard, Dell, ATT, J&J and Dollar Tree - A Common Sense Fundamental Roundup
This is part 2 of my rundown of the stocks covered on CNBC street signs yesterday. Look here and here for the intro (with Apple analysis) and part one.
cnbc_draft_pick_headbust
|
MasterCard |
|
|
Dollar Tree |
|
|
AT&T |
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
|
|
|
Dell |
|
I will continue snapshots and opinions of all of the other companies (excpt the oil company) in two separate posts.
Relate Video
Reggie Middleton on CNBC Stock Challenge... I'm at 5:28 discussing Google.
Additional commentary and footage...
Follow me:
A Realistic Look At The Companies In The CNBC Stock Draft 2012 - Part 1
For those who didn't see the CNBC Streetsigns show yesterday, I have put together a brief (often not so) fundamental overview of the stocks that were available for drafting in during the airing, along with my comments and opinions. Yesterday I released the analysis of Apples Q2 earnings, and I'm sure it contained content that you didn't read anywhere else.
cnbc_draft_pick_collage
Here’s the list of stocks:
- Apple: Reviewed in depth and in detail yesterday. For those who do not subscribe, I suggest you ask a friend who does to share with you the difference between last month's valuation note target price (page 10 of
Apple Margin & Valuation Note) and the price of Apple today, the day after earnings (just the difference, mind you - no giving away the BoomBustBlog content for free). Then ask them bout the logical argument behind the concern with Apple and the extremely volatile price action of the last few weeks. Subscribers, please download
Apple 2Q2012 results analysis. - Starbucks:
- The company is expected to benefit from
- Continued momentum and dollar share gain in the K-Cup segment
- Ramp up of multiple key revenue drivers
- Moderation of coffee prices, benefiting future margins. Coffee price have fallen 37% since hitting a 10 year high on 3rd May 2011
-
- The Company is entering into strategic partnership in different location; is seeking expansion in emerging economies including China and India
- The stock ($59.5) is close to 52- week high ($ 62.0)
- Starbucks Sales in China Contribute to Earnings Rise: New York Times - 11 hours ago Earnings increased 18 percent to $309.9 million, or 40 cents a share, in the second quarter, propelled by more traffic in its stores and big
- Starbucks announced that it continues to target approximately 10% revenue growth, driven by mid-single-digit comparable store sales growth in fiscal 2012
- The company is expected to benefit from
- Priceline.com:
- S&P upgraded the company to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘
- Priceline business model of offering discount travel rates on car rentals, hotels, and flights has helped it stay afloat despite a weak U.S. economy and a slowdown in Europe
- Company fourth-quarter net profit was $226 million, or $4.41 per share, compared with $136 million, or $2.66 per share, a year ago
- Bookings gained more than 50 percent from a year ago.
- 80% of operating revenue came from outside US, the company still has room left to run in emerging markets like Asia and Latin America
- High growth and steady margins are strong positives for the stock
- The recent launch of its Booking.com Tonight application is getting a lot of attention from travelers who book hotel reservations or car rentals at the last minute
- The company’s business model is less resilient to the current economic turmoil
I will continue snapshots and opinions of all of the other companies (excpt the oil company) in two separate posts.
Relate Video
Reggie Middleton on CNBC Stock Challenge... I'm at 5:28 discussing Google.
S&P Downgrades Spain (After I Did) Two Notches, Near Junk... About Time
ZeroHedge reports: S&P Cuts Spain to BBB+, Outlook Negative :
Adding insult to Bayern Munich injury, we just got S&P which did the impossible and cut Spain to BBB+ from A (outlook negative) not on Friday after hours. Kneejerk reaction is a 30 pip drop in EURUSD. Oh, and most amusing, those witches among men, Egan Jones, downgraded Spain from BBB to BBB-.... a week ago. Crush them, destroy them... How dare they be ahead of the pack as usual: after all their NRSRO application was missing a god damn comma.
Full release:
-
- We believe that the Kingdom of Spain's budget trajectory will likely deteriorate against a background of economic contraction in contrast withour previous projections.
- At the same time, we see an increasing likelihood that Spain's government will need to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector.
- As a consequence, we believe there are heightened risks that Spain's net general government debt could rise further.
- We are therefore lowering our long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Spain to 'BBB+/A-2' from 'A/A-1'.
- The negative outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view of the significant risks to Spain's economic growth and budgetary performance, and the impact we believe this will likely have on the sovereign's creditworthiness.
As was clearly stated last Monday and warned two years ago on BoomBustBlog...
The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga:
In the general our analysis Spain public finances projections_033010, the first four (of 12) pages basically outline the gist of the Spanish problem today, to wit here are the first two:
Spain_public_finances_projections_033010_Page_02
About those rating agencies...
Of course, we all know how reliable and timely the rating agencies are, right? See Rating Agencies vs Reggie Middleton, Part 3 and the Interesting Documentary on the Power of Rating Agencies, with Reggie Middleton Excerpts
I am having my analysts work on the Spanish and Italian default/ bailout scenario now (we have worked up a scenario two years ago, but things are much worse now). Even a Citi analyst has chimed in to that effect. Let' not forget the Portuguese Liquidity Trap: Prime from the actions of Greece. As a matter of fact, it's evident that Greece Is Trying To Convince Portugal To Make FIRE Hot, hence I answered the inevitable question, So, What's The Next Step Towards The Eurocalypse???
Analyzing Apple's Q2 Earnings, Google Challenging Amazon & Microsoft on CNBC Stock Draft Picks Today at 2:30
Okay, it's time to review Apple's earnings. It's interesting that so many in the street and off are coming around to my way of thinking regarding Apple. To me that means that fundamental analysis is starting to return. I have had more hedge funds request Apple research than at any time in my site's history. Before we move on to the Apple analysis, I want to inform all that I will be discussing this on air live today in the “CNBC Stock Draft 2012” live on @StreetSignsCNBC, 2:30 pm ET, hash-tag: #cnbcstockdraft2012
cnbc_draft_pick
Here’s the competition:
- Josh Brown – SHAOLIN STOCKPICKERS
- Abigail Doolittle - DOOLITTLE'S DO-A-LOTS
- James Altucher – THE BOOM TEAM
- Reggie Middleton – TEAM BOOM BUST
- Pete Najarian – THE PONY EXPRESS
- Paul Hickey – B.I.G. MONEY
- Guy Adami – THE OUTSIDERS
Here’s the list of stocks:
- Apple
- Starbucks
- Priceline.com
- Mastercard
- Dollar Tree
- Facebook (You buy the stock POST IPO .. you don’t get it at the IPO price…must buy at first day closing price)
- AT&T
- Johnson & Johnson
- Dell
- Microsoft
- Coca Cola
- Exxon Mobil
- McDonalds
- Groupon
- JC Penney
- Netflix
- Best Buy
- RadioShack
- RIMM
- Green Mountain Coffee
On that note, its time to review Apple's Q2 results. Subscribers, please download
Apple 2Q2012 results analysis.
In short, we significantly underestimated the international sell through of the iPhone, as did much of the sell side. We were off, and wrong on that part and although there was significant internal discussion on raising estimates, the work that went out was not what it should have been. I mention this because we are consistently more optimistic than the sell side in terms of units shipped, thus more accurate come earnings time. This quarter was a snafu. I also mention it because I tend to be a perfectionist and the deviance between the actual results and the projection should have been minimized. With that being said, the logic behind the added caution is still quite valid.
For all of those near fanatics who do not subscribe, I suggest you ask a friend who does subscribe to share with you the difference between last month's valuation note target price (page 10 of
Apple Margin & Valuation Note) and the price of Apple today, the day after earnings (click here to subscribe).
As excerpted:
It is worth noting that the key assumptions that underline the above valuations – (1) iPhone continuing to witness stupendous growth ******* in 2012 and ****** 2013 over a larger base and (2) iPhone margins continue to remain healthy off stable prices and despite increase in material cost – should be keenly watched over the next couple of quarters.
Then ask them bout the logical argument behind the concern with Apple and the extremely volatile price action of the last few weeks. As stated many times in the past, The BoomBustBlog argument and analysis is solid.
What else is there to the earnings announcement? Well we were absolutely correct in terms of the oncoming margin compression of the the product lines, something that was actually easy to see coming but many refused to admit. Of course, there will be those select few that say, "But wait, the company reported an INCREASE in margins while you said there will be a decrease!". Yes, that's true and both can exist simultaneously.
Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_2
Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_3
Apple_2Q2012_results_analysis_Final_Page_4
I will discuss nearly all of the stocks in the CNBC stockpicking list above in the next few posts on my way to studios via BoomBustBlog and ZeroHedge. Comments are always welcome. Follow me:
The UK Can't Be In A Double Dip Recession If It Never Truly Left The First Recession, Can It?
Bloomberg reports U.K. Plunges Into Double-Dip Recession, as does CNBC, UK Back Into Recession in First 'Double Dip' Since 1970s:
Britain's economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis after official data unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012, piling pressure on the embattled coalition government.
My contention is that the UK has not fallen back into recession, but has never truly risen out of the last one. Accounting parlour tricks, financial engineering machinations and outright verbal sleight of hand (what some may call not telling the truth) has given the illusion of organic growth, but in reality and at best, it was simply buying $1.00 worth of growth with $1.20 worth of stimulus - or should I reference this in pounds.
As we clearly articulated two years ago, when it was alleged that recession was over, in the subscriber (click here to subscribe) document UK Public Finances March 2010:
UK_Public_Finance_Analysis_2.0_Page_01_copy
UK_Public_Finance_Analysis_2.0_Page_02
UK_Public_Finance_Analysis_2.0_Page_03
Facebook Finally Faces The Fact Of BoomBustBlog Analsysis
Reggie_Middleton_Facebooks_Valuation
The MSM is echoing BoomBustBlog analysis today, as per Bloomberg: Facebook First-Quarter Profit Drops; Costs Almost Double
Facebook Inc. (FB), the social network planning an initial public offering, said first-quarter profit fell 12 percent as sales growth slowed and marketing costs more than doubled.
This is exactly as I warned in my initial Facebook analysis to subscribers - The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly...
Sales had risen 55 percent to $1.13 billion in the fourth quarter, and net income had climbed 20 percent.
Thus, it is highly unlikely one can legitimately factor in the type of growth needed to justify the current Goldman $50B valuation - particularly when you consider that Facebook's growth is already slowing!
Now, back to the Bloomberg article...
Net income dropped to $205 million in the three months through March, Menlo Park, California-based Facebook said yesterday in a regulatory filing. Sales climbed 45 percent to $1.06 billion, a slowdown from 55 percent in the December period.
Expenses surged to $677 million, reflecting higher costs of helping marketers reach Facebook’s growing user base, which swelled by one-third to 901 million last quarter. The company may struggle to reach EMarketer Inc.’s projection for 2012 sales of $6.1 billion as it awaits the full impact of new tools aimed at wringing more money from advertisers, said Debra Aho Williamson, who helped construct the researcher’s estimate.
“Facebook has a pretty steep hill to climb to meet the expectations that we set out,” Williamson said.
Facebook may seek an IPO valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion, people with knowledge of the matter have said. The upper end of that range would value the company at about 25 times trailing 12-month sales, more than double Google (GOOG) Inc.’s valuation when the search-engine operator went public in 2004.
Before last quarter, Facebook’s sales were already projected to gain at a slower rate this year than Google’s at the time of its IPO, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At $6.1 billion, 2012 revenue would be 64 percent higher than the $3.71 billion reported in 2011. Google’s revenue more than doubled to $3.19 billion the year it went public.
Zynga Revenue
Facebook said 82 percent of its revenue came from advertising last quarter, down from 83 percent in the preceding period. The company also derived less revenue from gaming companyZynga Inc. (ZNGA), which contributed 11 percent of the total in the quarter, down from 13 percent a year earlier.
The number of daily active users rose to 526 million, an increase of 41 percent from a year earlier. Facebook’s employee base rose 46 percent to 3,539 from a year earlier.
“Our costs are growing quickly, which could harm our business and profitability,” the company said in the filing. “Providing our products to our users is costly and we expect our expenses to continue to increase in the future as we broaden our user base, as users increase the number of connections and amount of data they share with us, as we develop and implement new product features that require more computing infrastructure, and as we hire additional employees.”
The paragraph above, decoded: These expenditures are true expenses, and not actual investments for they are needed to keep the company above water in the competition with Google, et. al., and are the stuff that actually fosters long term growth.
From C|Net:
Its first-quarter revenue rose 45 percent to $1.06 billion compared with a year ago, but it was down 6 percent compared with the last quarter of 2011.
At the same time, the company's net income for the first quarter fell 12 percent, to $205 million from $233 million a year ago. And it was down from $302 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.
That drop in quarterly revenue and profit comes even as Facebook continues to see big user growth, meaning that it's making less on each user. Facebook said that it now has 500 million daily active users, compared with 372 million a year ago, and that its monthly active user number -- people who use Facebook at least once a month -- has climbed to 901 million from 845 million in December.
Its average revenue per use, called ARPU, fell 12 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011, and Facebook said that was mainly due to "seasonal trends." The company points out that it saw the same seasonal weakness during the fourth quarter of 2010.
Even more telling are the comments from that article...
- 15% of revenues came from Zynga...and that stock's not looking too hot these days. For those on the fence about whether this is a worthwhile investment, consider the last time you actually clicked on an ad in FB.
- Posted by techgeekdude
- I am a once-a-month FB user at most. If FB is making any money off of me they are ripping off the one paying them that money. I may be counted as a visitor, but I am worthless to FB and anything connected to them as I cause no $s to pass their way.
- Posted by UnderStress
I discussed Facebook on the Peter Schiff radio show yesterday. The entire show can be heard via podcast from his site, and the Facebook excerpt is below...
From my previous Facebook analysis public excerpt:
Yeah, I was on a roll last year, wasn't I? That's not the gist of it either, as we reminisce even more...
Here is an excerpt for those who do subscribe to our research and services, YET!
Even with the fund taking 45%+ losses and the LP (limited partners, ex. Goldman's clients) losing every last single dime, Goldman easily pulls a 33% return. God forbid Facebook share actually do well, Goldman's numbers look... Well... Damn near illegal! Almost as if they can pump up a price without any fundamental justification or public disclosure of financials and still sell it retail to the public. Of course, such a thing could and would never occur - not with the every vigilant SEC to take our backs. Excuse me while a cough a up a lung from laughter...
You see, this is the dirty little secret of private equity funds. They are not in the business of investing money for client's maximum risk adjusted return. They are in the business of collecting fees. Those poor innocent (or not so, particularly when they are investing their clients monies, hence are in the same business) souls that actually believe as the commenter above quoted "Wow!!! If Goldman is putting their money in this, it must be serious!"simply the lamb being led to the private equity/IPO slaughterhouse. You see, there is no loss to GS - no matter how high they bid up the valuation nor how hard it comes crashing down. This gives them the incentive to shoot for the sky with the private equity deal, because when the IPO breaks, its bonuses bigger than nearly any have ever seen. Facebook makes and excellent marketing story as well. Boy Wunderkind CEO, a product nearly everyone uses and loves, and a mysterious dearth of business model to give it a mystical effect. Don't forget the involvement of the "cream of the crop" of Wall Street banks, whose bankers, traders and analysts are all so much smarter than us guys from Brooklyn. Add this up, and you get "Wow!!! If Goldman is putting their money in this, it must be serious!".
Additional Facebook analysis, valuationa and commentary.
On Max Keiser, go to the 13:55 marker for more on Facebook...
Last month I released an update to our Facebook IPO analysis (subscribers may download it here FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update). In its caveats section, I made pains to make very clear that one of the biggest threats to Facebook investors actually emanates from within, to wit:
Of course Facebook enthusiasm is burning hot. The coals in the "investor" (and I put this lightly) fire are being stoked by none other than the sell side agents doing God's work, among others...
Professional and institutional BoomBustBlog subscribers have access to a simplified unlocked version of the valuation model used for this report, available for immediate download - Facebook Valuation Model 08Feb2012. The full forensic opinion is available to all subscribers here FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update. It is recommended that subscribers (click here to subscribe) also review the original analyses (
FB note final 01/11/2011) as well as the following free blog posts on the topic:
- Facebook Registers The WHOLE WORLD! Or At Least They Would Have To In Order To Justify Goldman’s Pricing: Here’s What $2 Billion Or So Worth Of Goldman HNW Clients Probably Wish They Read This Time Last Week!
- Facebook Becomes One Of The Most Highly Valued Media Companies In The World Thanks To Goldman, & Its Still Private!
- Here’s A Look At What The Goldman FaceBook Fund Will Look Like As It Ignores The SEC & Peddles Private Shares To The Public Without Full Disclosure
- The Anatomy Of The Record Bonus Pool As The Foregone Conclusion: We Plug The Numbers From Goldman’s Facebook Fund Marketing Brochure Into Our Models
- Did Goldman Just Rip Its HNW and Institutional Clients Once Again? Facebook Growth Slows Pre-IPO, Just As We Warned!
- The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1
- The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly
It's Official & As I Foretold Years Ago, Greece Is Now In A True Depression As Reality Hits Greek Banks
Roughly two years ago, I penned a piece called How Greece Killed Its Own Banks! It outlined the end result of Greece attempting to hide sparse demand for its debt by forcing its banks to binge on it using excessive leverage. Of course, once you eat too much garbage, you start to stink, and eventually... Well, let's look at it from a visual perspective:
Greece and the ECB kicked the can down the road for two years, but as fate would have it... Reality rears its ugly head, as exemplified in today's MSM headline from CNBC: Record Losses at Greek Banks Show Pain of Bond Swap
Greece's top banks posted historic losses for 2011 on Friday, hit by a bond swap last month that blew holes in their balance sheets and nearly wiped out their capital base.
Together, National, Alpha, Eurobank and Piraeus, posted an aggregate loss of 28.2 billion euros ($37.3 billion), about 10 times their current market worth or 13 percent of the country's GDP .
The banks treated losses from last month's bond swap to cut the country's debts — part of a rescue package for Greece negotiated with the European Union and International Monetary Fund — as if they took place last year.
Inflicting real losses of about 74 percent on bondholders, Greece's debt swap proved a near fatal financial torpedo for lenders, crippling the sector's capital base.
From the big four banks, only Alpha spelled out clearly where this left its Core Tier 1 capital ratio. The other three reported where capital ratios would land after their use of standby funds provided by a capital backstop, the Hellenic financial Stability Fund (HFSF).
Alpha's core capital ratio (Tier 1) fell to 3 percent. Eurobank [EFG-FF 0.61
0.004 (+0.66%)
], the country's second biggest, did not disclose the figure but said the hit left it with total equity of 875 million euros.
National Bank [NAG-FF 1.73
-0.02 (-1.14%)
], the country's biggest lender with operations in Turkey, said its Core Tier 1 ratio would reach 6.3 percent, taking into account the use of a 6.9 billion euros standby facility provided by the HFSF fund.
Piraeus gave no Tier 1 figure but said tapping up to 5 billion euros of HFSF funds would boost its total capital adequacy ratio to 9.7 percent.
Greek bank shares have shed 74 percent in the last 12 months, underperforming the Greek stock market which is down 50 percent.
...Battered by a shrinking deposit base, rising loan impairments and unable to access wholesale funding markets, banks will need to fill the resulting capital shortfall and meet capital adequacy targets set by the central bank.
They face a core Tier 1 target of 9 percent by end-September.
... With the economy mired in recession...
I think its fair to say "depression' at this point. The destruction of the banking system is what pushed the US over the edge in the early 1900s, and it had a lot more going for it than Greece does.
... and unemployment at a record 21.8 percent, asset quality deteriorated, meaning banks' non-performing loans rose further — by 130 basis points to 12.9 percent of Alpha's loan book. Eurobank's bad debt provisions rose 4.7 percent last year.
Relevant BoomBustBlog research:
Greece Public Finances Projections
Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet
Those who follow me know that I have warned of this ad nauseum, through a variety of venues and media, focusing particularly on the destructive damage the bank collapses will bring, again...
This will be exacerbated by a re-default of the Greek debt that was designed to bail out the defaulted Greek debt. Why will this happen? Greece has severe, rigid structural problems that simply cannot (and will not) be solved by throwing indebted liquidity at it. As a matter of fact, the additional debt simply exacerbates the problem - significantly! This was detailed in the post Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!
Two years ago in "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! I compared the then Grecian situation to that of Damocles. Well, things have gotten much worse since then and I believe I was one of the most bearish (and accurate) at that time. Now, Greece resembles Icarus tumbling down from the skies, drenched in Hubris. Subscribers can download my full thoughts on Greece's sustainability post bailout here - debt restructuring_maturity extension blog - March 2012. Professional and institutional subscribers should feel free to email me in order to receive a copy of the Greek restructuring model used to create these charts and come to these conclusions.
Despite extensive, self-defeating, harsh and punitive austerity measures that have combined with a lack of true economic stimulus, Greece has (to date) failed to achieve Primary Balance. For the non-economists in the audience, primary balance is the elimination of a primary deficit, yet the absence of a primary surplus, ex. the midpoint between deficit and surplus before taking into consideration interest payments.
The primary balance looks at the structural issues a country may have.
Government expenditures have outstripped revenues ever since 2007 and have gotten worse nearly every year since, despite 3 bailouts a restructuring, austerity and a default!
This situation will simply get worse, considerably worse. I demonstrated in the post The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That'sToo Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media that anyone who purchased the last set of bailout bonds from Greece will simply lose their money as well (that's right, just like those who purchased the previous set) since Greece is still running deep in structural problems and can't afford the interest nor the principal on its borrowing. It's really that simple.
Unlike as portrayed in the media, Greece is not a standout profligate child, but simply a microcosm of what is to come to a good portion of Europe. Just scan today's headlines for evidence of such.... German Manufacturing Shrinks Fastest Since 2009
Of course it did. Germany is a net export nation whose trading partners are dancing between hard landings, serial recessions, and outright depression! Exactly how does one expect this song to be sung? Let me count the ways for you, as Germany is currently the undeserved linchpin to what's left of EU fiscal integrity. Reference The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You...
I believe Germany poses the biggest threat to global harmony for 2012. Here's why...
... That's right, a 10% loss in bunds translates into a near 50% loss in tangible equity to this insurer, which would realistically be 60% plus as the rest of the EU portfolio will compress in solidarity. Combine this with the fact that insurers operating results are facing historically unprecedented stress (see You Can Rest Assured That The Insurance Industry Is In For Guaranteed Losses!) and it's not hard to imagine marginal insurers seeing equity totally wiped out. The same situation is evident in banks and pension funds as well as real estate entities dependent on financing in the near to medium term - basically, the entire FIRE sector in both European and US markets (that's right, don't believe those who say the US banks have decoupled from Europe).
Read the entire article, The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You..., to get the full picture.
Then there's my warnings on the foolishness of believing the Dutch economy will walk through this unscathed. The MSM headlines are awash with Dutch gossip:
- Dutch Face Political Crisis Over Austerity Budget
- Another One Down? Dutch Government Near Collapse: The Dutch government’s failure to reach an agreement in talks to achieve tough spending cuts could see nervous investors push up the country’s borrowing costs.
I have actually discussed the Dutch market in depth at the ING conference...
Keynote presentation
Yes, "The Real Estate Recession/Depression is Here, Eurocalypse Style". We have already identified a Dutch real estate short candidate - subscribers (click here to subscribe), please download Northern Europe CRE short candidate #1. This company is suffering from a variety of maladies that, on an individual basis, may not seem that bad but once aggregated put it on the same path that GGP was on. The difference? This is after the so-called economic recovery, in the conservative EU state of the Netherlands, and right before the massive rate storm that will bethe Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis that I have warned about since 2009. The result, many properties that will either be difficult or impossible to refinance or roll over. Again, subscribers, reference Dutch REIT Debt Analysis, Blog Subscriber Edition. This is a succinct illustration of how this company will not be able to rollover much of its debt, and the absolute lack of recognition of such by the markets. Of interest is the fact that the number 3 short candidate on our short list is over 50% owned by this company (which came in as #!). With friends such as that, who needs enemies!
Q&A and discussion, part 1
Q&A and discussion, part 2
As usual, I can be reached via the following (or directly via email), and urge all who rely on the perennially wrong sell side to subscribe to BoomBustBlog:
Google 1Q 2012 Earnings Update
Google posted robust 1Q results topping the consensus estimates by a wide margin – revenues increased 24% to US$10.6 billion as against US$8.6 billion in the same period, a year earlier. This was significantly higher than the consensus estimate of US$8.2 billion for the period.Revenues were in line with our estimates – we expect full year revenues to total US$43.1 billion. Revenues from Google websites accounted for around 69% of total advertising revenues while that from the partner websites contributed to around 27% of revenues. The remaining 4% of revenues were accounted for by licensing and other fees. Geographically, the US generated around 46% of total revenues, UK accounted for 11% of total revenues while other markets accounted for the rest 43% of revenues.
|
All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade. |
Growth in revenues was driven by an increase in click volumes, especially in the US market. The number of clicks increased by a significant 39% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter during 1Q highlighting the increasing popularity of the search engine. However, on the flip side, the cost-per-click or the average cost paid by advertisers declined 12% year-on-year during the period – largely due to the growing business in the emerging markets and mobile space, which usually carry lower margins. Nonetheless, Google's strong position in the mobile space – including both smartphones and tablets – is enabling the company to generate robust revenue growth. The Company also continues to benefit from the success of its DoubleClick ad exchange as well as the overall improving quality of advertisements. Google also witnessed growth in the European and Asian markets. Japan registered strong performance largely on account of higher contribution from SMB segment.
Untitled
Total costs increased 16% year-on-year to US$3.8 billion as against US$2.9 billion in the same period, a year earlier. This was largely due to the fact that the Company made investments in new products, increased its advertising expenses as well as increased wages. Further, higher amortization charges, the data center operations cost as well as content acquisition costs drove the overall cost of sales higher. As a result, higher costs had a negative impact on gross margins which contracted by 136 basis points to 64.4% as against 65.8% in the year earlier quarter.
Operating expenses increased 16% year-on-year to US$7.3 billion as against US$6.3 billion in the same period, a year earlier. A 25% jump in selling and marketing expenses was largely responsible for the spike in operating expenses. The R&D expenses in fact declined as a percentage of sales during 1Q. Higher operating expenses had an adverse affect on margins which contracted 77 basis points to 31.8% during 1Q.
Untitled_copy
From the profitability perspective, Google outshone nearly all its competitors as earnings increased by a significant 61% to US$2.9 billion (or US$8.75 per share) as against US$1.8 billion (or US$5.51 per share). Further, the Company continues to have a strong balance sheet with cash balances at an enormous US$49.3 billion at the end of 1Q.
Untitled_copy_copy
All paying subscribers should download the
Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics.
Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade. A couple of bits from our archives...
![]()
There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the "Google Final Report" and click the "Download" button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover...
The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as valuation for each business line.
Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.
Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.
Akuna Matata: Central Banks' Disruption of the Economic Circle of Life Comes to Bear in Europe
A little more than a year ago I introduced the concept of the "Economic Circle of Life" in the post Do Black Swans Really Matter? Not As Much as the Circle of Life ... In said post, I posited the interference from the concerted efforts of the global central bank price fixing cartel has done significantly more damage than it has good - to wit:
I have always been of the contention that the 2008 market crash was cut short by the global machinations of a cadre of central bankers intent on somehow rewriting the rules of economics, investment physics and global finance. They became the buyers of last resort, then consequently the buyers of only resort while at the same time flooding the world with liquidity and guarantees. These central bankers and the countries they allegedly strive to serve took on the debt and nigh worthless assets of the private sector who threw prudence through the window during the "Peak" phase of the circle of economic life, and engaged in rampant speculation. Click to enlarge to print quality...
The result of this "Great Global Macro Experiment" is a market crash that never completed. BoomBustBlog subscribers should reference
The Inevitability of Another Bank Crisis while non-subscribers should see Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable? as well as The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance.
All four corners of the globe are currently "hobbling along on one leg", under the pretense of a "global recovery".
And in today's news... Rescue Plan Falters
Europe's bold program to defuse its financial crisis by cash into banks is running out of steam.
Go figure! Today's MSM commentary also features Print More Money? Central Banks May Have No Choice.
But wasn't this a a cause of much of the liquidity trap problem in the first place? Reference Portuguese Liquidity Trap: When You Add Too Liquidity to FIRE it Burns! The BofE agrees with this postulation, reference BoE Warns Inflation Could Run Into Medium Term. Of course, I have commentary on these guys as well... BoomBustBlog analysis: Subscription only -
UK Public Finances March 2010
The only bright side to this is what I posted earlier today...
The EurAsian Global Distressed Asset Acquisition Initiative:
I'm still quite bearish on banks/sovereigns, but as history dictates the greatest wealth has been created during the greatest dislocations, not during the greatest bull markets as popular opinion would lead many to believe. Think of the robber barons after the Great Depression...
Elsewhere in today's news...
Spain Issues $3.2 Billion in Bonds, Demand Solid. Of course, this headline fails to convey one very key fact, and that is the borrowing Costs Rise For Spain:
Spain's 10-year borrowing costs increased at its debt auction, reflecting concerns about its ability to cut its budget deficit amid rising unemployment and falling economic output. 5:26 AM
I went through this in explicit detail just 3 days ago in the post The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga. It is a highly suggested read. I have also warned on Spain thoroughly in the past. It has BIG problems firmly nestled in its property, banking and financial systems. Big Problems... Elsewhere in today's MSM fodder: Spanish Banks' Bad Loans Highest Since Oct. 1994
BoomBustBlog analysis:
-
As If On Cue After My Step By Step Illustration Of A Spanish Default, Spanish Yields Climb at Auction As Pressure Continues Thursday, December 16th, 2010
-
Will Spain Default? The Answer Is Not Hard To Determine If You Take An Objective Look At The Numbers And Recent History! Monday, December 13th, 2010
- Subscribers only -
Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note
Click here for the Pan-European Debt Crisis series archives or here for my latest on the topic.
Follow me!
The EurAsian Global Distressed Asset Acquisition Initiative
Last month I penned the piece Abu Dhabi & the UAE Can Leverage PetroDollar profits to capitalize on the plight of EU nations, wherein I announced that I was putting together an initiative to capitalize on the inevitable deleveraging of European (and soon Asian) banks and sovereign (as well as quasi-sovereign) nations. Those insititions and UHNW individuals who are interested in said initiative should click through and read the article and contact me afterward as there has already been significant indications of interest. I already have my analysts going through a plethora of opportunities, identifying hard assets first, and financial assets with deep, deep discounts in mind (100%+ cash on cash return within one year, unlevered).
As fate, and an adherence to viewing things analytically, would have it the opportunities may come to bear sooner than expected - to wit: European Banks Could Deleverage by $2.6 Trillion: IMF
A drastic contraction of European bank balance sheets during the next 18 months could jeopardise financial stability and economic growth, according to the IMF. The FT reports.
This is simply a reiteration of my warnings from as far back as 14 months ago, proffered in explicit detail, simple reference Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable? (Attention subscribers: The subscription document is available as well The Inevitability of Another Bank Crisis)
|
Banks NPAs to total loans |
|
Source: IMF, Boombust research and analytics |
Euro banks remain weak as compared to their US counterparts
Later on today I will post the first of several documents to professional/institutional subscribers detailing what I have in mind in this potential asset grab.
Latest comments
- Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing...
I like ARMH as well, but as you said... 80x+ trailing PE. Even if you ...
16.05.13 10:15
By ReggieMiddleton - Google Q2 2013 Update: Valuing...
In my humble view, ARMH is a better bet and stock risk now is overall ...
15.05.13 02:18
By Dar - Short Term Gain Brings About L...
If everyone was on board instead of being consumed in themselves they ...
11.05.13 01:10
By Dr. Nathanial David - Preparing Resources To Shop Fo...
:lol: Well done Reggie, thanks for the post, god knows it is a sad sta...
10.05.13 17:28
By jynx101 - It's Not Just Reggie Warning I...
Buy precious metals and physically HOLD it. :-)
08.05.13 17:38
By Rourke
Live Spreadsheet Content
- Online Only Subscription Content


