We've got a particularly heavy dose of BS in the mainstream news channel this morning. I believe it to be my duty to throw some facts amids this boiling cauldron of fiction, fantasy, propaganda, marketing and straight up lies. First up (yeah, you guessed it), those gosh darn Europeans...

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- France and Germany called on the European Union to speed up curbs on financial speculation, saying some bets against stocks and government bonds should be banned as markets suffer a resurgence of “strong volatility.”

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Relevant commentary from BoomBustBlog and sources throughout the Web on the accounting change that added 80% to the S&P since March 2009!!!

Warning Shots from the IASB: FT

  • The IASB came under fire in the fall/winter of 2009 in regards to mark to market rules
  • Banks wanted continued relaxation of valuing models in order to “smooth out volatility swings in asset prices”
  • IASB and FASB plan to converge on mark to market ruling by 2011, both have stated a desire for more transparent financial statements, but have been politically compromised by bankers and commercial lenders

FASB Plan Would Force Banks to Report Loan Fair Value: BusinessWeek

  • FASB is seeking to approve a proposal that would force banks to mark loans at market value by 2013, potentially having billions of dollars at risk for writedowns
  • In April 2009, FASB gave significant leeway to banks in regards to pricing and modeling loan values, banking consultants are very opposed to a reversal of the measures
  • Pension obligations and leases will be exempt from new measures
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This is the public version of our quarterly review of Alt-A and subprime mortgage performance sourced from the NY Fed and FDIC data. All paying subscribers can access the entire document here: 4Q09 Alt-A and Subprime commentary (452.33 kB 2010-05-21 05:49:09).

scap4q09

 

Foreclosures on First Lien Mortgages increased from 11.5% as on 31st October 2009 to 11.74% as on 31st January, 2010. Mortgage rates on Prime loans and Alt-A loans increased by 25bps and 21bps to 7.66% and 12.23% respectively over the same period. Delinquency rates for first lien mortgages on the other hand decreased by 7bps to 5.6%, for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.. While Net Charge-off rates for Alt-A loans increased by 2.12% points q-o-q to 30.49% as on 31st Dec 2009, delinquency rates dropped by 27bps over the same period to 12.1%

In case of Subprime loans, Net Charge off rates and Foreclosure rates, both rose to 44.6% and 15.6% respectively during 4Q09, compared to 42.9% and 15.4% during 3Q09. Delinquency rates declined from 26.4% in 3Q09 to 25.3% in 4Q09. Net charge of rates for HELOCs rose 13bps to 3.34% during 4Q09 while delinquency rates had a negligible decline.

Net charge-off rates and delinquency rates for Business Loans (C&I loans) marginally declined during 4Q09 remaining more or less constant at 2.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Delinquency rates under CRE loans remained steady during 4Q09 at 8.8% when compared with 3Q09. While delinquency rates for multifamily loans did not show any drastic changes in 4Q09, net charge-off rates under construction loans increased considerably from 6.3% in 3Q09 to 8.4% in 4Q09

Credit cards had a better quarter with net charge off rates and delinquency rates showing marginal improvements in 4Q09. Net charge off rates declined from 10.2% in 3Q09 to 9.5% in 4Q09, while delinquency rates declined from 6.6% to 6.4% over the same period.

Other consumer loans showed a healthier 2.7% net charge off rate in 4Q09 as against 3.2% in the previous quarter. Delinquency rate in this segment also improved marginally, declining by 19 bps to 3.5% in 4Q09.

Net charge-off rates and delinquency rates for Other loans marginally increased. While net charge off rates increased from 1.7% in 3Q09 to 1.8% in 4Q09, Delinquency rates remained constant at 1.1% over 4Q09.

Professional

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This is the skinny on those French and German banks that are at significant risk to PIIGS drowning, or potentially even getting significantly wet. The sell side banks have released reports on which bank is exposed to Greece, etc., but we decided to take it a few steps farther in order to create a truly actionable document that our subscribers can actually use to base concrete decisions upon. As is customary, I am releasing snippets of the proprietary research for free to the blogoshpere. This time around, I'll feature a European bank that we feel is thoroughly insolvent, yet trading at one of the highest premiums in all of Europe! As excepted from the reports referenced below:

Deutsche Postbank

The bank reported its exposure to sovereign debt of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain at €1.3 billion, €4.7 billion, €350 million, €50 million and €1.2 billion.

Applying the loss rates under the base case, the total estimated losses on sovereign debt holdings is €1.7 billion (60.1% of tangible equity) on the total European sovereign debt exposure of nearly €24.9 billion (based on the reported sovereign debt exposure of December 2009). The existing Texas ratio of the bank is 139%, and if we include the losses on sovereign debt (unconventional, but illustrates solvency in a clearer fashion), the Texas ratio* will be 177%. The bank is trading at price to tangible book value of 1.83x. The stock is trading on a high multiple largely owing to speculation of full takeover by Deutsche bank. The float is 36% of shares outstanding as 39.5% is owned by Deutsche Post and 25% is owned by Deutsche Bank. See Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Pro & Institutional and Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Retail for a detailed overview and analysis of the unusual Deutsche Postbank situation.

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The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Dominoes start to fall "precisely" as anticipated...

From the Wall Street Journal:

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Spain’s long-term credit-rating to double-A with a negative outlook just one day after roiling global markets with downgrades for both Greece and Portugal.

“We now believe that the Spanish economy’s shift away from credit-fueled economic growth is likely to result in a more protracted period of sluggish activity than we previously assumed,” S&P credit analyst Marko Mrsnik said.

The move sent the euro to a fresh one-year low against the dollar of $1.3129; the 16-nation currency had briefly bounced higher as fears about Greek debt contagion eased. Spain’s IBEX index extended earlier losses, oil prices fell and U.S. stocks briefly turned negative.

This follows a downgrade of Portgual and Greece (to one of junk). The Actionable Intelligence Note of last week was quite timely. Up until a few days ago the options on many of these banks were quite cheap, on relative basis (even the Greek banks, at least on a relative basis though IV was high). Notice the explosion in both implied volatility and intrinsic value leading to a 100% to 200% gain...

Banco Santandar since research

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It would pay to review all of the relevant European bank research. The market seems to have realized the perilous linkages throughout the EU and is taking many (if not all) of the researched banks down. This research came out early enough for all subscribers to have been able to take advantage of it. Of particular note should be:

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Commercial Delinquencies Rise Again, Data Goes Ignored: Mortgage Bankers Association

  • Commercial Real Estate delinquency rates for loans held >30 days rose to 5.69% (as REITs continue to hit record highs)
  • CMBS debt has continued to have the highest delinquency rate of all debt by sector
  • For a reminder of the early warnings on regional bank exposure, see the Doo Doo 32
  • For my 2010 commercial real estate outlook (which thus far has been right on the money) see CRE 2010 Overview CRE 2010 Overview 2009-12-16 07:52:362.85 Mb

retail_cre_vs_cap_rate.png

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Implied volatility for the big banks is down across the board, just about where it was before the system went into convulsions. This implies the coast is clear, as do the share prices of many banks.

Hard core forensic and fundamental analysis implies otherwise. So does the Fed's actions, which still incorporates ZIRP policy, as well as the waffling at FASB. We will either have smooth sailing from this point on out or there is a nasty surprise waiting (on and off balance sheet) for bank investors in the near future. I invite readers to weigh in with their opinions.

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As you can see, we are just about where we were in 2007 in terms of average volatility.

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I've been telling readers and subscribers that the housing market has a considerable amount to fall before we reach income parity. With income currently falling along with rising underwriting standards, that point is actually being pushed even farther into the (event) horizon! We are now at a point where interested parties would be remiss in not pursuing blogs (both in addition to and instead of the mainstream media) to get the nitty gritty analysis on a wide variety of topics. With that being said, I have finally decided to bite the bullet and expand BoomBustBlog by accepting partners in a bid to grow the business. Lethargic media and financial concerns, look out, here comes the BLOGS!!! I am open to ideas and suggestions. Interested parties may contact me here.

From the WSJ.com: Home Resales Drop

The latest data on the housing market underscored its fragility and showed that a glut of homes for sale and a wave of foreclosures and fire sales are holding down housing prices...

Sales of existing homes fell 0.6% in February from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million, the National Association of Realtors said...

The median price for an existing home was $165,100 in February, down 1.8% from February 2009, the Realtors said. Distressed homes, generally sold at discount, accounted for 35% of sales last month.

A separate report Tuesday from Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that house prices fell 0.6% in January and December's numbers were softer than previously reported. The FHFA index -- which tracks the prices of the same houses over time, but only those sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the Federal Home Loan Banks -- is 13.2% below its April 2007 peak.

Inventories of existing homes increased 9.5% at the end of the month to 3.59 million available for sale, the Realtors said. That represented a 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 7.8-month supply in January.

Of course this isn't news at all to the Green Shoots disbelieving BoomBustBlog subscriber. Excerpts from previous posts over the last quarter that ran in direct contravention of both mainstream media and sell side analyst reports are below:

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I will start posting more news topics of interest and welcome readers to forward research and investment ideas at will. Here is the crop from last week. I will post topics from the weekend later on today, and as usual will randomly comment on daily news events.

From Alliance Bernstein:

  • Core Intermediate Producer Prices have taken 6 months to rise 5.2% annualized, recession of 2002 took 2 years to reach same level
  • Operating Rate hit low of 65.4% last year and has only risen to 69.4%, still short of historical threshold causing rise in raw material prices (74%)
  • Increases in foreign operating rates have started to indicate US may now be a price follower instead of price leader
  • The Fed cited lack of resource utilization as reasoning for maintaining record low rates, as these concerns begin to wane Alliance Bernstein sees easing of emergency Fed policy

Bloomberg.com:

  • Christina Romer, Peter Orszag, and Tim Geithner have predicted unemployment will settle in 2010 at around 9.7%, citing poor job conditions
  • Federal deficit projections for 2011 & 2015 are $1.5 trillion & $751 billion respectively, White House officials cite Bush's medicare and income tax cuts for allowing deficit insanity
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