Wednesday, 13 October 2010 04:29

What's New at BoomBustBlog

Those Who Are Not Familiar with Reggie Middleton's Work...

Can now learn about his many accurate and timely calls including every major market crash and nearly every major corporate collapse over the last 3 years. Also available, social media links and recent media appearances with streaming video. See More About Reggie Middleton.

Published in BoomBustBlog

Crains NY ran a happy, go lucky article today:

The stubbornly dismal economy means at least one thing: an extended stay in the spotlight for a handful of star analysts whose defining characteristic is their extraordinary bearishness. And, of course, their accuracy.

There's Albert Edwards, a London-based analyst from France's Société Générale, who believes the Standard & Poor's 500 will sink to 450, a sickening 57% drop from its current level. There's David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto money manager Gluskin Sheff, who warns that deflation is going to pull down the U.S. economy for years.

And then there's the New York star of this gloomy show: Reggie Middleton, a Brooklyn entrepreneur who turned to analyzing global markets after a stint buying and renovating apartments in Fort Greene and Clinton Hill. (See “Prophet of doom,” April 19.)

Bad as things may be for the economy, Mr. Middleton warns that they're poised to get much worse. Prices of real estate, stocks and bonds are all headed for serious falls... Wages will decrease, unemployment will increase. Fun, eh?

...

The culprit, Mr. Middleton says, is Washington. The bank bailouts, nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and other interventions during two presidencies prevented the market from bottoming out in 2009 like it should have, he says. Now that the economy is weakening again and the heavily indebted U.S. government has fewer rescue options, the reckoning is coming. Markets of all kinds in the United States and Europe will get hit—hard.

“In my opinion, the amount of risk in the system is even higher than in 2008,” he says, adding this rare dash of hope: “2013 might be a good time to start taking a look at buying assets again.”

Mr. Middleton has been startlingly accurate in the past. He forecast the collapse of the housing market in 2007, and in early 2008 warned of the demise of Bear Stearns weeks before it happened. Earlier this year, he said that Ireland's finances were in terrible shape long before Standard & Poor's got around to downgrading that nation's credit rating.

For those of you who don't follow my blog, Mr. Elstein (the article's author) was referring to:

Published in BoomBustBlog

Many have labeled me a Permabear, particularly my detractors and those in the media (who are decidedly not detractors but still paint a pessimistic bent on my outlooks, see sidebar below). I am nothing of the such. I am what will be soon be known as a realist, as opposed to being a pessimist or optimist. No, I am no Permabear. My proprietary investment style (see "The Great Global Macro Experiment, Revisited")

Crain’s New York

“His work is so detailed, so accurate, it’s among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton’s research.

Reggie in Forbes (Going short)

Middleton’s site combines self-promotion with meticulous financial analysis that is often delivered with a whiff of bathroom humor

dictates that I switch between extremes of bullishness and bearishness contingent upon the extreme policy errors of central bankers. As a matter of fact, I was as bullish as can be in residential real estate in NYC form 2000 to early 2004. I leveraged up on all the "in the money" distressed real estate I could find in areas of heavy gentrification, literally extracting 4 digit returns. That doesn't mean I disobeyed the laws of math though. As 2004 progressed, the writing on the wall became larger and more pronounced... Enter 2005 and math said turn bearish, common sense said turn bearish, and not to be one to look arithmetic in the face and argue, I grew bear claws and donned a ruffled brown grizzly coat! After liquidating my real estate, I took a year off and started shorting every industry that was even tangential to real assets. That was 2007. By the first quarter of 2009, I had a cumulative return in my portfolio of about 452% averaging roughly 50% cash (see Updated 2008 performance). I sensed the market was oversold, but the fundamental and macro outlooks was still quite negative, hence I pulled my profits one weekend in March (but let a few underwater positions ride). This weekend, coincidentally, happened to be the beginning of the rally that shouldn't have been, and I fought the faux bull to my detriment I got hurt in the artificially engineered, central banker and government synthesized rally of 2009, and my cumulative return was almost halved.

Published in BoomBustBlog

Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analyst reports.

Reggie Middleton Wins CNBC's First Ever Stock Draft Investment Contest, and Does So By A Wide Margin!

Reggie Middleton's The Only Investor/Analyst To Publicly & Timely Call To Short Apple At It's All Time High and Go Long Google On CNBC!

The Financial Nostradamus!

Who Is Reggie Middleton & What Is BoomBustBlog?

Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record, including but not limited to, the call of....

  1. The housing market crash in the spring of 2006 and publicly in September of 2007: Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
  2. Home builders falling and their grossly misleading use of off balance sheet structures to conceal excessive debt in November of 2007 (not a single sell side analyst that we know of made mention of this very material point in the industry): Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!
  3. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear? | After the collapse, a prudent bullish call as well... Joe Lewis on the Bear Stearns buyout Monday, March 17th, 2008: "The problem with the deal is that it is too low, and too favorable for Morgan. It is literally guaranteed to drive angst from the other side. Whenever you do a deal, you always make sure the other side gets to walk away with something.  If you don’t you always risk the deal falling though unnecessarily. $2 is a slap in the face to employees who have lost a life savings and have the power to block the deal. At the very least, by the building at market price and get the company for free!" | BSC calls are almost free and the JP Morgan Deal is not signed in stone Monday, March 17th, 2008 | This is going to be an exciting, and scary morning Monday, March 17th, 2008 | As I anticipated, Bear Stearns is not a done deal Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 [Bear Stearns stock goes from $1 and change to $10, front month calls literally explode from pennies to several dollars]

  4. The warning of Lehman Brothers before anyone had a clue!!! (February through May 2008): Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of tangible equity on the street following BSC. The question is, “Can they monetize those hedges?”. I’m curious to see how the options on Lehman will be priced tomorrow. I really don’t have enough. Goes to show you how stingy I am. I bought them before Lehman was on anybody’s radar and I was still to cheap to gorge. Now, all of the alarms have sounded and I’ll have to pay up to participate or go in short. There is too much attention focused on Lehman right now. ) | I just got this email on Lehman from my clearing desk Monday, March 17th, 2008 by Reggie Middleton | Lehman stock, rumors and anti-rumors that support the rumors Friday, March 28th, 2008 | May 2008
  5. The fall of commercial real estate in general (September of 2007) and the collapse of General Growth Properties [nation's 2nd largest mall owner] in particular (November 2007):
    1. Will the commercial real estate market fall? Of course it will.
    2. Do you remember when I said Commercial Real Estate was sure to fall?
    3. The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!
    4. Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II
    5. General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story Gets Worse
    6. BoomBustBlog.com’s answer to GGP’s latest press release and Another GGP update coming… (among over 700 pages of analysis, review the January 2008 archives or search for “GGP” for more research).
  6. The collapse of state and municipal finances, with California in particular (May 2008): Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis – part 2
  7. The collapse of the regional banks (32 of them, actually) in May 2008: As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! as well as the fall of Countrywide and Washington Mutual
  8. The collapse of the monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA in late 2007 & 2008: A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton, Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance! and Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion
  9. The overvaluation of Goldman Sachs from June 2008 to present): “Can You Believe There Are Still Analysts Arguing How Undervalued Goldman Sachs Is? Those July 150 Puts Say Otherwise, Let’s Take a Look”, “When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs???“andReggie Middleton vs Goldman Sachs, Round 2)
  10. The ENTIRE Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis (potentially soon to be the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis) starting in January of 2009 and explicit detail as of January 2010: The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
  11. Ireland austerity and the disguised sink hole of debt and non-performing assets that is the Irish banking system: I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s Better!
  12. The mobile computing paradigm shift, May 2010: »

Reggie Middleton Singularly Moves The Irish Banking System, Apparently Motivates Top Banking Regulator To Resign

We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street's sell side research: Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?

There are several ways through which you can interact directly with Reggie:

Mr. Middleton Receives Positive Press Coverage, Worldwide!

“His work is so detailed, so accurate, it’s among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton’s research.

Reggie Middleton Featured in Property EU, one of Europes leading real estate publicatios

Those who wish to download the full article in PDF format can do so here: Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Sovereign Debt and the Potential for bank Failure at the ING ACADEMY-v2.

Reggie Middleton on the Peter Schiff Show Discussing Facebook

Reggie Middleton on Max Keiser ZIRP and Treasury Ponzi Scheme

Reggie Middleton takes a Bite out of Apple on his trip back from Abu Dhabi & Dubai

Reggie Middleton on Goldman Sachs Business Model

On Greek Bailouts

On the Greek Bailouts...

Interesting documentary on the rating agencies' effect on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, produced by VPRO Tegenlicht out of Amsterdam. Reggie Middleton appears in the following spots: 4:00, 22:30, 40:00...

Reggie Middleton Discussing the Rating Agencies effect on Sovereign Europe


Reggie Middleton currently leading the CNBC Stock Draft Pick contest

Reggie Middleton Explains the Travails of the F.I.R.E. Sector on CNBC

Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Max Keiser discussing re-hypothecation thourgh MF Global at 12:32 in the video

Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Capital Account on MF Global, Goldmand Sachs and Vampire Squids

Reggie Middleton interviewed on Russion Television's Capital Account concernign the European debt crisis and bank contation

Reggie Middleton on Mas Keiser discussing BNP Paribas bank runs and the potential collapse of French and European banks

Reggie Middleton on Mas Keiser discussing Goldman Sachs, currency debasement and ZIRP poisoning US banks

Reggie Middleton as the Keynote Speaker at the ING Real Estate Valuation Seminar in Amsterdam

Reggie Middleton as the Keynote Speaker at the ING Real Estate Valuation Seminar in Amsterdam

Reggie Middleton on Bloomberg TV's Fast Forward

Reggie Middleton on CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate

Reggie Middleton discusses the fall of commercial real estate in the US

Another stint on Max Keiser discussing topics such as Goldman’s Facebook offering that never was, what happens when its the banks that walk away from a home, phantom banking profits that never were, and more shenanigans that are the tour de force that is today’s banking system and economy. To skip directly to the Reggie Middleton interview, move to 11:55 in the video.

Reggie Middleton on BNR Dutch News Radio

A short interview clip on BNR, in Dutch. Click here.

Reggie Middleton on CNBC's Squawk on the Street - 10/19/2010

Mr. Middleton discusses JP Morgan, bank risk and technology and is the only pundit in the financial media that we know of that called Apple's margin compression issues and did so successfully just hours before they reported! Click here or click below to see the video.

Reggie Middleton with Max Keiser on the Keiser Report and RT Television - Discussing JP Morgan, Derivatives, Fraudclosure and the US Oligarchy

Go to 12:20 in the video to see the portion with Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg TV: "The risk/reward ratio in commercial real estate does not look good!"

Bloomberg TV & Reggie Middleton on the Flawed Case Shiller Index: "That's what they said in Japan about 12 years ago, look where they are now!"

BBC World News: "It wasn't just Lehman Brothers: Regulatory Capture is the Term du Jour!"

Amsterdam's VPRO Backlight and Reggie Middleton on brutal honesty, destructive derivatives and the "overbanked" status of many European sovereign nations

BBC World News Today and Reggie Middleton on the Obama Administration's attempt to reign in the US banking system

Amsterdam's VPRO Backlight and Reggie Middleton on brutal honesty, destructive derivatives and the "overbanked" status of many European sovereign nations

Reggie on CNN!

The bank stress tests were a sham! I know it, you know it! Everybody knew it but played along with the game anyway...

Reggie Middleton on the Young Turks: Another Economic Meltdown Coming???

Crain's New York illustrating Reggie's BoomBustBlog and the followup article in Crains illustrating his accuracy in calling real estate and the European debt debacle,"

“His work is so detailed, so accurate, it's among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton's research.

Reggie Middleton in Forbes (Going short)

Middleton's site combines self-promotion with meticulous financial analysis that is often delivered with a whiff of bathroom humor

Older Press Coverage and Media Appearances (samples no longer available)

  • CNNfn
  • Fortune
  • PC Magazine
  • PC World
  • BET
  • Real Estate Finance Today
  • Interactive Week
  • eWeek
  • Computer Shopper

Awards

Hedge Funds Post: Best Blogs 2008

SoUp9lMCxRg

Published in BoomBustBlog

This is an excerpt from part two of a multi-part series on the companies vying for dominance during the 3rd major paradigm shift in personal and enterprise technology over the last 30 years. This one will be a biggie (not smalls) and promises to create an investment behemoth out of the winner and relegate the losers to relatively niche markets. This is saying a lot considering the size of the companies participating in the battle for the pole position. I created this series to provide a truly objective, truly informed, and truly analytical (from an empirical perspective) knowledge source on this very important intersection in personal computing and distributed media. This series will end with a full BoomBustBlog style forensic report on the company we feel has the most to gain from these wars from an investor's perspective. Those who are not familiar with my hard-edged, yet objective analytical work should reference past performance and media appearances for a quick background.

It is imperative that readers first review “There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All” before moving on so as to get a thorough background as to what is at stake, who the players are, and what mobile technologies are being released into the consumer and enterprise realm. This is a lengthy, meaty, objective and information packed post that was initially intended to go out to subscribers only (click here to subscribe to our research services). I welcome you to compare it to the research you find available from technology, financial and strategic advisory firms, including and particularly Goldman Sachs (click here to see what I mean, then return to this point to continue reading) and let me know whose analysis is more accurate, in depth and thorough (not to mention less expensive).

GOOGLE, INC

Summary

Despite an increasing proportionate share of licensing and other revenues, advertising will apparently continue to drive Google’s revenues in the medium-to-long term. The Company’s dominant share in the search engine market is expected to be maintained, with other competitors failing to gain the operative, technological and strategic influence to deter its pace of ad revenue growth. Of late, the Company has been initiating to broaden its revenue base as is evident from some of the recent and planned launches of newer products and services funded through revenues generated by its online ad programs

Google’s next major launches – Chrome web browser (production version), Google Chrome OS and Google TV – (expected by the end of 2010) are expected by analysts to fare much better than its Nexus One phone. However, uncertainties over consumer acceptance, pricing and technological edge of newer services offerings over competing products in the market are making it quite difficult to gauge the near-term financial impact of these launches. I would like to make it known that it appears nearly all of the financial analysts and many of the technology analysts fail to grasp the gist of Google’s phone strategy. The Nexus One was a proof of concept, proven in the market place by HTC’s Evo, which (one month after being released) is constantly sold out in nearly all retail outlets, Sprint stores, indirect retails stores, and the Sprint.com site itself. It is also the first phone that is widely accepted as not only being a credible threat to the IPhone but actually superior to the IPhone as well. It should not be lost on anyone that the IPhone is what has driven the stellar burst in Apple’s revenues, profits and mindshare over the last three years. To that end, the Nexus One, and more aptly the open sourced Android OS has proven to be a raging success.

Published in BoomBustBlog

With the cult-like adherence to Everything Apple, cultivated by the viral marketing engine that is Apple, it is very, very difficult to get objective comparisons and reviews of practically anything in a product category that Apple is present in. Yes, even the stalwart geeky tech site's have bitten the Apple, so to speak. Cnet, Wired, etc. are so Apple biased as to be borderline embarrassing. I know they report on what (and how whatever) brings the page views, but come on fellas!!! BoomBustblog thrives because it tells the truth in the financial and economic space, not matter how unpopular or controversial. Is it time to open up a BoomBustBlog, Technology edition????

What this abject bias does, despite irritating the hell out of those of us who are not plugged into the Matrix, is mask the exciting technical revolution that is occurring due to the intense competition borne from the weakening of the Wintel hegemony, the advent of a slew of new technologies across the telecomm, media, semiconductor and software industries and the new business models cropping up as the world finally embraces the World Wide Web as an actual permanent and primary platform for basic business, social and economic transactions.

This post will surmise the qualitative aspects of the companies and products listed below. I will follow up with full forensic analyses of not only the companies, but the business model and market share potential of each, as well as a thorough valuation scenario analysis. One of these companies will probably take over portable computing, and I think it will pay to hitch onto the right one. The next Microsoft is in the making. Hey, Microsoft may even be the next Microsoft. Don't sleep on them, although it does appear that they have been asleep themselves. We won't know until the Windows Mobile 7 OS is released. I recommend all who are interested in this tech, media or investments send the link to this article around the web, for it is one of the few (if not the only) truly unbiased reviews of the products that compete with Apple in the ultra portable and handheld space.

An Overview of the New Windows to the Web

376 - blog

From the top left hand corner, clockwise: The Amazon Kindle 2, Asus EEE PC, Apple IPad, Archos 5 Internet tablet, HTC Touch Pro2, Apple Itouch 3rd Generation, Archos 9 Internet Tablet, Sony Vaio. The paper under the Apple product is a testament to the viral marketing ability of Apple. My son did not want his ITouch to touch the floor!!!

Published in BoomBustBlog

A new community and networking system has been installed. Please take the time to go through the features and take full advantage of it. You can upload and link your own videos, files, pictures charts, microblog, comment, network, etc. Each registered member an access it from their profile, or you can go to the community link at the top menu, also available here.

comm act

Published in BoomBustBlog

Here is an interesting article from thecrossbordergroup.com: Data firm monitoring influential blog sites

Hedge funds are testing out a data feed produced by monitoring a group of financial commentators that includes bloggers. The trial is still at an early stage, but it shows how seriously the investment community is taking the opinions of those working outside traditional media outlets.  The feed – put together by Alacra, a data aggregator – monitors the output of around 25,000 analysts by combing the web for their comments. This group contains a number of prominent bloggers, such as Barry Ritholtz, Henry Blodget, Felix Salmon and Fred Wilson.
...

Published in BoomBustBlog

A very interesting article was published in Crain's New York this morning, both in print and online, titled Prophet of doom. The article was about blogs, and the potential for them to raise capital and compete with the mainstream media. There's also a picture of a devilishly handsome, charismatic, and outright cute blogger there as well :mrgreen:

Here are a few excerpts, combined with my usual commentary...

  •  Mr. Middleton's Boom Bust Blog forecast with stunning accuracy the demise of such real estate bubble blowups as Bear Stearns and mall operator General Growth Properties... Now he's embarking on his next project: Turning his blogging hobby into a full-fledged investment research business, a firm where he says investors will get “realistic” insights as opposed to Wall Street puffery. Mr. Middleton plans to start petitioning venture capital firms, private equity players and established media companies in the coming weeks.
    • Yes, it's official. I'm going to start building the blog out into something much bigger, more in depth, and more accessible.
  • “His work is so detailed, so accurate, it's among the best in the world,” says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton's research. Well, thank you Mr. Sprott! I owe you a good bottle of wine for that one! For those that don't follow Eric Sprott's commentary (or his investment record), this accomplished man tells it like it is. He was just on CNBC and rang the closing bell last week.

     

  • Finding investors won't be easy, though. A few bloggers have landed backers recently, including Footnoted.org, acquired by investment research firm Morningstar, and Gothamist.com, by Cablevision. But most media concerns and venture capitalists have steered clear. Many blogs' revenues are scant, with few opportunities to grow and churn out the $10 million to $15 million in revenues that venture capitalists want. “The climate for blogs is almost always lousy,” says Roger Ehrenberg, founder of IA Capital Partners, which has invested in BlogTalkRadio and BusinessInsider.com.

Published in BoomBustBlog

I received an email (posted below) from Aaron Krowne, a fellow independent blogger and founder of the Implode-a-Meter group of web sites. His blog has broken many stories in the banking and hedge fund sector, and has a fairly broad network of independent sources. I am not commenting on the validity of the assertions and accusations herein, but I am casting my opinion on the apparent attempt to belittle the credibility of the blogs.

I can speak first hand on this topic. The specialized financial and political blogs offer expertise, data and analysis that often rival the best think tanks, banks and research houses in the world. I am not exaggerating here. I happen to be quite proud of the stuff that is generated. I am also impressed at the speed and actual accuracy of the breaking stories. This depth, collective breadth, and reflexive responsive times available through the blogoshpere makes it not only a viable conduit for news, analysis, opinion and information, but also an apparent threat to the struggling mainstream media model. Reference the back and forth between CNBC and Zerohedge as an example.

Published in BoomBustBlog