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		<title>Another RIMM Job? It's Amazing How Many Institutions Don't Read The BoomBust!</title>
		<description>Discuss Another RIMM Job? It's Amazing How Many Institutions Don't Read The BoomBust!</description>
		<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?</link>
		<lastBuildDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 19:26:50 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<title>Digikelly says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9886</link>
			<description><![CDATA[I have to agree with you Reggie. I use AAPL products for personal and my business uses all macs. That being said, Samsung invested billions in research and development and that investment is bearing fruit you see in the Galaxy series of devices. Samsung also built an extremely smart partnership with Google to push software / hardware to deliver consumer product devices that wow an avid Apple fanatic such as myself. Stock price and EPS is a weak metric to use as a rational basis for gauging where a company is GOING. With Tim Cook at the helm of Apple, they will certainly increase the market share of iPhones, which is their trojan horse for cross platform pollenation. That being said, Tim Cook is no Jobs. The king is dead. From where I sit, Apple's margin compression will come from the stiffest competition its ever seen, a sluggish economy, and cheaper devices offering superior specifications. Reggie, Samsung is the ONLY company in the world to figure out how to scale graphene production, and have the supply chain and market penetration to monetize this next generation material. 2 - 5 years from now, Samsung will be delivering transparent flexible devices. Android devices. If you don't believe that, just Google: "Samsung graphene" K]]></description>
			<dc:creator>Digikelly</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Tue, 11 Oct 2011 20:53:51 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9886</guid>
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			<title>AJ says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9857</link>
			<description><![CDATA[123.... 122.... 121.... the countdown continues. What countdown you ask? That would be the dollar share price difference between GOOG and AAPL. FYI, it started at over 500 four years ago. For us AAPL longs, this is the third major countdown in recent times. The first was passing MSFT in market cap. The second was passing XOM. I'll let you when we reach the third.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2011 00:46:33 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9857</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9855</link>
			<description><![CDATA[ That's just no true my friend. It's here on the site. I may have said 4 to 6 quarters as well, but they are forward estimates so it is basically the same difference. The gist of the matter is that the margin compression will not be evident immediately but will show over time. I really don't see what so hard to understand about that. Even using the text that you quoted, the margin compression theory wouldn't be off unless it failed to show up starting in the 3rd quarter of 2012, so exactly what is the reason for you filling up so much space in the comments column? In addition, you cannot quote Seeking Alpha and attribute it to me. I don't have editorial control at that site and they have altered my work several times, which is why I don't post there anyomore. Come here to see what Reggie actually says. Practically every single investment thesis on this blog has taken over a year to develop, and nearly all of them have been on point: BSC, LEH, GGP, banks, real estate, sovereign debt, etc. Somehow it's all acceptable except for when Apple is involved. Then I'm wrong if it doesn't happen tomorrow. I could very well be wrong about Apple (I doubt so very seriously) but if I am that's one or two in a stable of many dozens of accurate calls. To date, Apple has performed exactly as I anticipated, and exactly as I said it would, even with fanatic defenders such as yourself. The iPhone 4 is the companies main produce, revenue and earnings generator so that's why it was used as an example. I also used the logic to extrapolate backwards and forwards in time. Methinks that you are not very well equipped to have this discussion since you really don't know what I said due to the fact that you don't have access to the paid material. In closing, even using your own argument. 6 quarters from the end of 2010 is the middle of 2012, so why are you hear bitching on this site in the 3rd quarter of 2011 about a theory that hasn't born fruit. Get a life, my friend.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 03:33:15 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9855</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9853</link>
			<description><![CDATA[You appear to be on the wrong site. Short term stock price, particularly in a manipulated market is not indicative of long term success. RIM's share price was on a tear in the last year or so as well as their EPS number (which just started to crumble recently). Despite that, I gave the warning last summer in the face of rising EPS and share prices. The stock market is contrived and does not always reflect the reality on the ground. This is the reason why certain people can generate alpha and make outsized returns because they can see things that others take for granted and are not awed solely by stock price.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 03:18:12 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9853</guid>
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			<title>AJ says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9851</link>
			<description><![CDATA[In regards to the article, it's here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/231049-google-s-ultimate-threat-to-apple-s-margins And nowhere in it do you mention that margin compression will appear in 6 to 8 quarters.. In fact, you specifically mention the iPhone 4 as the reason for its margin compression, you mention its retina display, A4, and the fact that Verizon won't give as sweet a deal as AT&T as reasons why Apple will suffer margin compression. The iPhone 4 is now at the end of its headliner run, so what does it have to do with margin compression a year from now? On top of the fact that you never mentioned 6-8 quarters in the article, just a couple of months ago when someone mentioned this same prediction, you said it would take place in 4-6 quarters from the time of the prediction. "I believe I started the margin compression thesis in the last quarter of 2010, and stated it would take 4 to 6 (or 4 to quarters for it to start seeing fruit. Thus far, every single prediction I have made in the tech sector has born fruit: RIMM, Google, Nokia, MSFT, Android, etc." http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Apple-Once-Again-Surprises-The-Unsurprisingly-Inept-Analyst-Estimates-When-Will-Investors-Catch-On-To-The-Earnings-Management-Game.html So, you went from predicting margin compression for the iPhone 4, to claiming it hasn't happened yet because you predicted it in 4-6 qtrs, and now that more time has passed with no actual margin compression to predicting it in 6-8 qtrs. I guess a year from now you'll claim it will happen in 2013?]]></description>
			<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 01:57:26 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9851</guid>
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			<title>AJ says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9850</link>
			<description><![CDATA[RIM and Nokia? Seriously? Have you noticed that their stocks are in the crapper while APPLE IS FAR AND AWAY THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD. Google is still no where even close to where it was years ago in market cap, that's pathetic. Scoreboard, dude. AAPL is kicking Google and everyone else's ass right now, and there's no possible way to spin that.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:48:34 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9850</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9842</link>
			<description><![CDATA[I have not been wrong about Apple once thus far. Not one single time. That doesn't mean that I won't be wrong, but it hasn't happened yet. Android is wiping the floor with Apple, and all of its other competitors. It should be obvious that Google is going for market share and penetration before they attempt to directly monetize the platform. This should NOT be hard to understand, and no, EPS and stock price are not the only two metrics that matter. If that were the case, many would still be piled into (or lost money in) Nokia and RIM, for both of those companies had fat margins, and growing EPS at the same time that it was apparent (at least to those who were paying attention) that Android was eating their lunch. As for my margin compression thesis, it's still alive and well. I said in October or November that the effects of margin compression should become apparent in 6 to 8 quarters. So, starting next quarter leading up to Q3 2012, we shall see if I was right. As you can see, a very similar lag appeared with RIM and Nokia, and company specific fanatics such as yourself jumped in to aggressively defend them before reality sunk in as well. Expect a lower end iphone to come out to compete with vary varied Android line, soon. As you may have noticed, Apple's business model has shifted to troll patent, as it feels a legitimate threat from its largest supplier, Samsung. Simply pick up a Galaxy tablet or more importantly, the new Galaxy S 2 smartphone and you can easily see why Apple is taking the legal route. The new Galaxy smartphones simply redefine what mobile computing, media and communication is about. I bought one last week and it runs faster than some of my desktops (dual core exynos @ 1.6 ghz), is the lightest and thinnest device I've ever held and has a screen that is absolutely gorgeous and easily compares to Samsung hi def LCD TVs. Even if Apple can match this level of tech, it will have to do so frugally, and its not as if these things aren't selling. Tabs are sold out everywhere, and the phone is the 2nd fastest selling smartphone, ever. Guess who its behind. And you don't think this will touch Apple's margins one iota? It appears obvious that Apple's management doesn't share your conviction, or at least their strategic legal team doesn't. In addition, the legal battle is a necessary danger for Apple. Apple is a smartphone company, Samsung is not (at least not yet). Patent losses for Samsung are a nuisance, patent losses for Apple in this space is a danger to their primary and greatest earnings engine. Since Samsung owns the patents to wireless data delivery in smartphones and they are going on the offeneive (finally), the risk/reward equation for Apple has been dramatically altered. Granted, it is necessary for Apple to push forward aggressively to defend its turf, but a lost could be devastating and a loss is definitely possible.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:11:44 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9842</guid>
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			<title>AJ says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9840</link>
			<description><![CDATA[You keep writing about how Google is beating Apple in the mobile world, but in the only two metrics that matter, EPS and stock price, Google is getting destroyed by Apple just like every other large cap tech company is as well. A year ago, you were telling everyone that Apple would be in trouble due to margin compression. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this supposed margin compression was going to be due to the great Android competition that was going to force Apple to cut prices and/or create more expensive hardware. Fast forward a year later and all Apple has done is sell more and more iPhones every quarter even without a mid 2011 refresh! On top of that, they haven't had to cut prices at all which in combination with their iPhones getting cheaper and cheaper to produce the older they get, means their ridiculous hardware margins from a year ago have only gone higher and higher! What happened to your margin compression thesis?????]]></description>
			<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 02:30:30 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9840</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9836</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Apple is definitely on a tear, but I think you are looking at it backwards. All of the companies hurt by Apple sat on their asses while enjoying a market lead instead of pushing innovation. Apple stepped in introduced creative destruction, the rest is history. This is how MSFT got started (through IBM), Google, etc. Now, its Apple's turn to defend the crown, and they seem anxious to keep it. More amazing is the success of Google's new business model which seems to be wholly underestimated because it is not pushing profits up front. Even more interesting in the short term is the aggression that Samsung is exhibiting in going after Apple's markets. I strongly suggest everyone step into a Sprint store and play with the new Galaxy S phone. After 5 minutes on this device, it will become perfectly clear as to why Apple is engaged in 23 lawsuits against Google in an attempt to get their products banned. The phone is simply outrageous, and makes a tablet unnecessary. The speed, screen, features, form factor, everything is reference quality and ridicules other smartphones, making them look like simple phones. What's even more interesting is that this device, which leaves literally ALL of its competition in the dust, is due to be updated and refreshed next quarter. Utterly amazing effort (and results) from this Korean company. There is a reason why this product sells several million per month without even being released in the major markets. Most importantly, it raises the bar very, very high for Apple, MSFT/Nokia (I don't think they can compete at this level, or at least they haven't shown the proclivity to) and other Android vendors. To best this phone and its upgrade is to literally double battery life, triple screen quality, and match PC level computing power in less than two quarters. Example? This phone both records and plays 1080P high profile HD video, and does it without stuttering in unbelievable quality. That's the same quality format that one comes to expect in BluRay discs!!!]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Tue, 20 Sep 2011 13:09:04 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9836</guid>
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			<title>AJ says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9833</link>
			<description><![CDATA[The list of companies that Apple is destroying is staggering. They're single-handedly causing a technology bear market for practically everyone but themselves while they keep on growing at start-up rates despite being the largest company by market cap in the entire world. Watching AAPL right now is like getting the chance to watch the '96 Bulls or the '27 Yankees.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Tue, 20 Sep 2011 02:38:39 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5859-another-rimm-job?#comment-9833</guid>
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