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		<title>Apple Once Again Surprises The Unsurprisingly Inept Analyst Estimates: When Will Investors Catch On To The Earnings Management Game?</title>
		<description>Discuss Apple Once Again Surprises The Unsurprisingly Inept Analyst Estimates: When Will Investors Catch On To The Earnings Management Game?</description>
		<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?</link>
		<lastBuildDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 06:32:16 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<title>Stock tips says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9724</link>
			<description><![CDATA[NIce blog i saw very differentthings in it. thank you]]></description>
			<dc:creator>Stock tips</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 05:05:58 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9724</guid>
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			<title>Realisticallyy says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9713</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Since the bear market rally of 2009, stock prices have failed to correlate with the fundamentals. Until that happens consistently, you cannot equate stock prices with fundamental reality. If you do not know that, then you are probably not well equipped to guage the prospects of the battle between Apple and Android.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>Realisticallyy</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2011 03:31:02 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9713</guid>
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			<title>MikeC says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9710</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Ultimately, these predictions should manifest themselves in the stock prices of GOOG and AAPL. Since Android came on the scene with the Motorola Droid in late 2009, AAPL has crushed GOOG in stock price appreciation, but amazing the beating has been even worse in earnings appreciation. I doubt anything is going to change in the next 2-3 quarters.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>MikeC</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 00:56:48 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9710</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9707</link>
			<description><![CDATA[I believe I started the margin compression thesis in the last quarter of 2010, and stated it would take 4 to 6 (or 4 to 8) quarters for it to start seeing fruit. Thus far, every single prediction I have made in the tech sector has born fruit: RIMM, Google, Nokia, MSFT, Android, etc. I may be wrong about Apple, but no can tell if I'm wrong now. Again, American lover affair with Apple is blinding many to some very obvious facts. Anecdotally and empirically, I see Google's Android taking over the OS space. As explained above, this is dangerous - not only for Apple, but for the rest of the industry as well. This is why they have literally ganged up on Google (ex. Nortel patent auction).]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2011 12:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9707</guid>
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			<title>MikeC says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9703</link>
			<description><![CDATA[I know you've been talking about AAPL's shrinking margins for a while now, but it just hasn't happened. Selling 20M year-old phones does wonders for margins, and only AAPL is capable of having a year-old product fly off the shelves like that. I think you overestimated the importance of new hardware and underestimated the importance of Apple's amazing ecosystem.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>MikeC</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 18:39:14 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9703</guid>
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			<title>Really? says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9702</link>
			<description><![CDATA[No doubt about app development and ecosystem. More than eyeballs though is getting paid for development. Google will have to figure out how to operate (Ad revenue) in China though to reap benefits from that market. Apple doesn't appear to be having as difficult a time. If Apple does stumble it will be further out than your original timeline.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>Really?</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 16:46:46 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9702</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9701</link>
			<description><![CDATA[I see where you are coming from, but I don't think you see my point. Apple was able to rule this space due to controlling the de facto mobile ecosystem. Google is a truly credible threat to that control, and that's putting it lightly. Google has surpassed Apple, Nokia, RIMM and all other competitors in users and its growth rate is actually increasing. Just last week, every single major app that was on the iPad that gave it an advantage over my HC tablets were just released on Android. This means the iPad is up on eBay. Factor in Android's growth, its nascent stage, and the amount of capital (both financial and intellectual) and it is not hard to see where Apple may very well become a 2nd tier ecosystem. Developers go where the eyeballs are, and the eyeballs are flocking in droves to Android. If Apple loses the ecosystem crown, then margins are sure to follow since it is the ecosystem which was in large part responsible for Apple to be able to overcharge in the first place. Out side of blind faith in Apple, I think many fail to see what is happening due to a lack of looking longer term. Be aware Apple, MSFT, Nokia and RIM are looking at it from my perspective. This is why Apple has gotton so aggressive from a litigous perspective.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 15:47:44 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9701</guid>
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			<title>Really? says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9700</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Again, I believe you focus on the expense to produce and revenue per widget sold (at POS) too much. I do agree that both GOOG & AAPL are laying foundations, but revenue produced per device in each company's "foundational ecosphere" is where real margin lies. I believe the Asian market, specifically China, will be where GOOG gets taken behind the woodshed. Their ecosphere is non-existent there. AAPL is just getting started in China.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>Really?</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 15:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9700</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9698</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Why is that? They both had positive returns, stopped out, but positive nonetheless. See reply above.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 08:12:22 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9698</guid>
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			<title>ReggieMiddleton says:</title>
			<link>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9697</link>
			<description><![CDATA[That's also beside the point. Nobody claims Apple didn't do a fantastic job, I said that it is truly not a surprise after 11 surprises in a row. Apple is a master of guidance management. The comparison with Google is not appropriate either. No one is claiming Google is out earning Apple, but I am claiming that Google is laying the strategic foundation to cut Apple's margins in the medium term, that is unless Apple can do something about it. Again, the need to defend a C corporation at all costs, HFs stuffed to the gills with Apple stock, and extreme earnings guidance management combined with the most competitive environment in the company's history is a combination destined for one thing. I call it as I see it, my friend. I don't play the earnings management game which was clearly detailed in the post referenced above last year. As you can see, that post was quite accurate. Very few commenters have bothered to parse the accuracy of my posts. All it seems some have done have read the word "Apple" and any thing not overwhelmingly positive and attacked. Let's take a look at how inaccurate my tech sector opinion has been. RIMM overvalued, margin compression current, active short: 50% down later - check! Google undervalued, active long: ~35% up later, the number one mobile OS in the world and growing 4.4% per WEEK, faster than all other competition combined - check! Nokia outclassed, margin compression imminent - stock collaspes - Check! Microsoft not out of the mix yet, announces Windows 8 that will run on ARM chips, we'll see.. but it would be foolish to count them out now. Apple, powerful company but will lose market share growth title to Google - Check! Apple margin compression cometh - we'll see. I gave a time frame of 4 to 6 quarters. Imprecise science though. Apple earnings management game with the sell side, clearly illustrated last year and clearly annonuced before earnigns. Was I right? I even shared the numbers from my subscritpion docs which shows that while no one can guess Apple's sales precisely, a little honest perspective would have eliminated this blowout mantra. They did a good job, but is there any reason why this wasn't expected? Now, that looks like a pretty good track record so far. That is essentially what I said in the videos. Those who ask how my shorts are coming haven't been paying attention to the posts on my blog. It was stopped out at a slight gain. Simple as that. The full bear move on Apple is simply not ready yet. It is not time. If this were any other company, these words would be considered common sense - but this is Apple, and anything that is not a wracked with elation and a screaming endorsement is met with invective. Hey, if I'm wrong then I'm wrong - but you will not find out if I'm wrong in two or three quarters. I know the sell side has taught many to look at investments 90 days at a time, but that is not the way true wealth - or a successful company - is built. That short term-ism is why Google surprised everybody, why RIMM didn't fall earlier (it produced strong numbers), why all think Apple cannot fall, and why many probably will not realize a Pan-European bank run until after the money is gone.]]></description>
			<dc:creator>ReggieMiddleton</dc:creator>
			<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 08:11:32 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/5784-apple-once-again-surprises-the-unsurprisingly-inept-analyst-estimates-when-will-investors-catch-on-to-the-earnings-management-game?#comment-9697</guid>
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